Srain Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 I'd guess mid-month and the GFS/Euro African wave, hopefully waiting to develop until the first trough in the Westerlies has passed so it has a fighting chance of arriving the MA near the conference. I don't care what it is, even watching Better Homes and Garden TV or cleaning toilets, driving nails into sensitive parts of the anatomy is about the last thing I'd do. Its July, if we get a mid-month named storm we'd be running ahead of schedule. July is the price you pay to see August. And even outside freaskish years like 2005, just enough chance of a Claudette to reward watching the pot that never boils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 I'd guess mid-month and the GFS/Euro African wave, hopefully waiting to develop until the first trough in the Westerlies has passed so it has a fighting chance of arriving the MA near the conference. News flash: We'd like Bill Read to attend/speak as scheduled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 News flash: We'd like Bill Read to attend/speak as scheduled. next year in Miami, I say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 next year in Miami, I say. I say next year in Jerusalem. Back on topic, the tropics are in their typical rather quiet mode for early July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 I'd say wait till later in the month, thats when things will get interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 I wouldn't expect anything to develop for the next week or so. Not until mid July at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 I wouldn't expect anything to develop for the next week or so. Not until mid July at least... Good analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 I'd say wait till later in the month, thats when things will get interesting Good analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 The Caribbean continues to remain convectively active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 The GFS and Euro ensembles are hinting the Western Caribbean will be the area to watch in the longer range regarding any future Bret. The TW near 35W would likely be the culprit, fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 there are hints at mid month activity, but we have to see if the models keep it, make it stronger or drop it all together, if I'm going to guess, its not going to be anything that strong if anything comes of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 4, 2011 Share Posted July 4, 2011 Looks like mid-month of later, judging from the reliable models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 God this hurricane season needs to ramp up... Summer WX is so ZzzzzzzzzzzzzZzzzzzzz right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 People need to be patient, its only July, but if mid August comes and nothing is imminent, then you can be a little concerned that there will be little development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Having already had one NS as of 7/4 puts us ahead of the longterm average for non-Nino seasons. There's nothing slow about this season to date. Early July is normally a pretty dead time in the tropics. If there isn't a 2nd NS until August, it wouldn't be surprising at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 People were crying bust last year well into August...and then September came in with 8 storms. You never know whats going to happen. Just gotta learn to have patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Already 1 NS, neutral ENSO, very warm AMO....we don't have anything to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Interesting little feature. This is the system that the GGEM bombs out in a few days. Reliable guidance isn't excited about this one. Nothing at the surface: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 It is an interesting feature to keep an eye on, right now it looks like a mid level disturbance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Are the conditions favorable for that feature or will it get tore up soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Are the conditions favorable for that feature or will it get tore up soon? More than likely tore up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Are the conditions favorable for that feature or will it get tore up soon? More likely than not, this feature combined with an approaching front will exacerbate rainfall along the southeastern cordillera in about 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 It is supposed to be slow in July. With more than a little luck, that wave passing 10ºE could be in the Chesapeake or DelMarVa and running NNW around July 22nd. Not favored, but I am always glass half full optimistic. Databuoy off Virginia Beach is 25.4º and has over two weeks to warm further, Frying Pan Shoals is 27.5º. Not probable, but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 That feature in the Bahamas continues to have some vorticity, but it looks like It's a goner as it remains on the north side of an upper level ridge with the 850mb flow essentially moving 180 degrees in comparison to the 200 mb flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 That feature in the Bahamas continues to have some vorticity, but it looks like It's a goner as it remains on the north side of an upper level ridge with the 850mb flow essentially moving 180 degrees in comparison to the 200 mb flow It should bring a TPW max into our drought ravaged friends in S FL though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 I think that most of the MDR will be out of commission for the next few weeks with strong shear due to UL troughing in control of much of the region. But we could have a shot at some home-grown action near the Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 5, 2011 Author Share Posted July 5, 2011 Alright, where's the action? July was supposed to start good. C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Alright, where's the action? July was supposed to start good. C'mon. Back in April I said July was the toughest month, like the weeks before Christmas, when its close, but not here. April and May are not the tougest months. Euro tries but fails to gin something up for you in 8 days in the Southern BoC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted July 5, 2011 Share Posted July 5, 2011 Ya just can't get a tropical storm when ya need one... The Eastern Carolinas have received a pitiful amount of rain since March and are now in full drought. And with three wildfires just in my NWS CWA, people are taking turns suffering the heavy smoke with each shift in wind direction. Even here on Cape Fear we've had visibility drop to as low as 0.25 mi with heavy, putrid smoke (from distant peat bog fires that are near-impossible to control.) There's rarely a day when at least a handful of counties don't have a "code red air quality alert." It may not make the national news but it's pretty darned bad in this part of the country. We're in desperate need of sustained heavy rains....so of course our tropics are dead as a door nail. The Bermuda High (with its notorious heat and humidity) is in full control here; and it's been stuck like glue all summer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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