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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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:unsure:

I'd guess mid-month and the GFS/Euro African wave, hopefully waiting to develop until the first trough in the Westerlies has passed so it has a fighting chance of arriving the MA near the conference.

I don't care what it is, even watching Better Homes and Garden TV or cleaning toilets, driving nails into sensitive parts of the anatomy is about the last thing I'd do.

Its July, if we get a mid-month named storm we'd be running ahead of schedule. July is the price you pay to see August. And even outside freaskish years like 2005, just enough chance of a Claudette to reward watching the pot that never boils.

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I'd guess mid-month and the GFS/Euro African wave, hopefully waiting to develop until the first trough in the Westerlies has passed so it has a fighting chance of arriving the MA near the conference.

News flash: We'd like Bill Read to attend/speak as scheduled. :whistle:

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The GFS and Euro ensembles are hinting the Western Caribbean will be the area to watch in the longer range regarding any future Bret. The TW near 35W would likely be the culprit, fwiw...;)

latest72hrs.gif

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Having already had one NS as of 7/4 puts us ahead of the longterm average for non-Nino seasons. There's nothing slow about this season to date. Early July is normally a pretty dead time in the tropics. If there isn't a 2nd NS until August, it wouldn't be surprising at all.

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It is supposed to be slow in July.

With more than a little luck, that wave passing 10ºE could be in the Chesapeake or DelMarVa and running NNW around July 22nd. Not favored, but I am always glass half full optimistic.

irnm7.GIF

Databuoy off Virginia Beach is 25.4º and has over two weeks to warm further, Frying Pan Shoals is 27.5º.

Not probable, but not impossible.

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That feature in the Bahamas continues to have some vorticity, but it looks like It's a goner as it remains on the north side of an upper level ridge with the 850mb flow essentially moving 180 degrees in comparison to the 200 mb flow

It should bring a TPW max into our drought ravaged friends in S FL though.

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Alright, where's the action? July was supposed to start good. C'mon.

Back in April I said July was the toughest month, like the weeks before Christmas, when its close, but not here. April and May are not the tougest months.

Euro tries but fails to gin something up for you in 8 days in the Southern BoC.

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Ya just can't get a tropical storm when ya need one...

The Eastern Carolinas have received a pitiful amount of rain since March and are now in full drought. And with three wildfires just in my NWS CWA, people are taking turns suffering the heavy smoke with each shift in wind direction. Even here on Cape Fear we've had visibility drop to as low as 0.25 mi with heavy, putrid smoke (from distant peat bog fires that are near-impossible to control.) There's rarely a day when at least a handful of counties don't have a "code red air quality alert." It may not make the national news but it's pretty darned bad in this part of the country.

We're in desperate need of sustained heavy rains....so of course our tropics are dead as a door nail. The Bermuda High (with its notorious heat and humidity) is in full control here; and it's been stuck like glue all summer....

sad.gif

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