Ed Lizard Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 It'd be nice, we could use the rain... Rather far off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 FWIW, I'm really liking the idea of CV development by July 15. New post in my long-range blog: http://28storms.com/longrange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 We do have some pretty nice clustering from the GFS ensembles for the next 15 days in regards to the MJO phase, which shows us staying in phase 1 while slowly increasing in magnitude. Could be fun times ahead for the Atlantic basin if this comes true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Although this is in the long range and has high uncertainty, I would watch the July 10-17 time frame over the Atlantic basin. Paul Roundy's plots have been projecting a well-resolved Kelvin wave passage across the basin around July 10-12. This combined with the projected favorable and substantial-amplitude MJO phase 1-2 should result in significantly higher-than-climo TC genesis probs. This method seemed to work fairly well with the genesis of Arlene, as several of us zeroed in on the correct general time frame 10+ days in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Models have backed off somewhat, although reading CUmet's post, we're not in range of the possible 10th to 12th date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Looking ahead to later next week, the TW current near 54W is chugging W and should enter the Caribbean later in coming weekend. While shear is too high for any development, conditions should improve in the Western Caribbean later next week as the wave enters the Western Basin. This will coincide well with a favorable Kelvin wave/MJO as we head toward the 10th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Can even see a hint of rotation on the TPW product, but at ballpark 5 degrees per day, it will be crossing some hostile territory for about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 Interesting solution of that wave from the GFS, if you follow the 700 mb theta-e on the FSU site, part of that clearly feeds into what could be a hybrid low off the East Coast. http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 The GFS, Canadian and Euro all suggest a vigorous wave nearing the NW Caribbean early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 30, 2011 Share Posted June 30, 2011 I'm not all that crazy on the idea of another storm in the Atlantic until we reach the July 16-17th range. After that, resolutions on the longer-range models begin to show more convective activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Although this is in the long range and has high uncertainty, I would watch the July 10-17 time frame over the Atlantic basin. Paul Roundy's plots have been projecting a well-resolved Kelvin wave passage across the basin around July 10-12. This combined with the projected favorable and substantial-amplitude MJO phase 1-2 should result in significantly higher-than-climo TC genesis probs. This method seemed to work fairly well with the genesis of Arlene, as several of us zeroed in on the correct general time frame 10+ days in advance. ECMWF reduce shear across the Carribien signifigantly by day 7. Most global models are explicitly showing storms well in advence as well as some extra Phantomcanes now but I assume they could miss one occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 I dont really see any tropical activity for at least the next week, but thats not unusual for this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 I dont really see any tropical activity for at least the next week, but thats not unusual for this time of year Despite favorable upward motion phases, I sort of agree. Hints on the models, but nothing semi-concrete like we had with Arlene from a week or more out, and nothing looks too promising on satellite. But, most of the models aren't even out to mid-month. I get thinking about Bertha, which was looking nice about July 4th weekend even before it was classified, so I look to Africa for good waves even if the MDR isn't usually favorable yet. I've been kind of hoping for an EC threat about the third week of July to make the conference memorable. Steve is going, and we wouldn't want a Gulf storm while he is away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 I dont really see any tropical activity for at least the next week, but thats not unusual for this time of year The Mighty Canadian brings a system up along the west coast of Florida next week. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2011070112&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 The Mighty Canadian brings a system up along the west coast of Florida next week. http://moe.met.fsu.e...&hour=Animation Right into South Georgia where an exceptional drought has taken hold. It would be very welcome for Georgia and if we could get some moisture up here into Atlanta I would be ecstatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 1, 2011 Share Posted July 1, 2011 Things have been quite convectively active in the Caribbean today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Convection continues with the tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean, although the models don't really do much with it, outside of some vorticity from the GFS that spins off north of Hispaniola beyond 48 hours. Shear is expected to drop quite significantly over the next 48 hours in the Eastern Caribbean, but this feature might be stuck in the shear axis with the TUTT feature further NW by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 The wave that was mentioned earlier has increased in convection over night and a TUTT to the NW is creating a highly sheared Central Caribbean. We'll see what happens as shear looks to relax in the Western Caribbean in a few days... TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE ATLANTIC ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...HAITI...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 The Euro ensembles suggest the SW Caribbean will be the area to watch re: any development in the coming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 Local HGX office doesn't like the Euro, in regards the 500 mb low it forecasts to develop in the Gulf which would eventually improve rain chances for our drought stricken area, but anytime one sees almost a closed low off Florida in July, eyebrows are raised... With the 24 hour time steps, I can't positively trace this back to the zero calorie lemon, it could come up from Central America. Almost looks like a combo package. BTW, at 10 days this feature is entering the Atlantic South of Hatteras per the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 HPC Update: IN REGARDS TO TROPICAL WEATHER...ENOUGH 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE SPLAYED OUT ALONG AN ELONGATED AXIS ACROSS/AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEXT WEEKEND TO DEPICT A RETROGRADING INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 While the convection in the Eastern Caribbean has dissipated, the whole system still resemble a arc pattern, and it seems that the GFS shows increased vorticity developing just NW of Hispaniola by 30 hours. Certainly bears watching especially as the shear decreases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 It's still early on, but this weak lemon resembles the TCG of Franklin (2005) where a strong tropical wave ran into a TUTT feature which helped to enhance convection before it moved out, where shear lessened enough for development. I'm more optimistic with this lemon than the NHC considering the favorable phase of the MJO which might provide enough divergence aloft to keep this feature convectively active until it finds a more favorable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 It has a nice overall look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted July 2, 2011 Share Posted July 2, 2011 It has a nice overall look to it. I just hope that feature can help enhance rainfall across Florida later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 3, 2011 Author Share Posted July 3, 2011 Lemon fail. Next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Some better looking waves coming across Africa. Shouldn't be long before we have to start watching those with nore interest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 Some better looking waves coming across Africa. Shouldn't be long before we have to start watching those with nore interest. If it was CV season, the wave approaching the CV would probably be too far North to be interesting in North America. But it isn't, and that is a sweet looking wave. Looking at my new favorite model product, which somewhat resembles TPW, which has worked pretty well the last couple of years since a local KHOU forum point pointed it out, is the 700 mb theta-e, well, 12Z and 18Z GFS suggest impressive leaving Africa in a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 I would rather stab my balls than obsessively ITCZ watch. Patience is definitely something I am getting really good at as the years pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 3, 2011 Share Posted July 3, 2011 There is still a little bit of vorticity north of Hispaniola this morning, but instead of the upper level low moving out, it moves over the system over the past 24 hours, keeping upper level winds far too unfavorable for organization for now. The ECWMF does show some sort of hybrid low pressure forming off the Outer Banks very late in the forecast period that seems related to the vorticity that is currently associated with the former lemon disturbance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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