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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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Snooze if you want, but it's a start and certainly a weak tropical system is just what the doctor ordered in the long reaching drought we are having in the Gulf region.:P

As modeled, the precip gradient is very tight, though. BRO picks up 3-4", CRP gets .5-1", and IAH only .1"

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Snip from the 8:00AM TWD :

BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE

AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND APPEARS TO BE

CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N WHERE A SURFACE LOW

MAY BE FORMING. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF SRN MEXICO

FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 91W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG

CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE

FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 88W-96W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 85-88W.

ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE ERN GULF FROM 25N-28N

BETWEEN 82W-88W. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY KEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH

OF THE SRN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE

CIRCULATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AS THE WAVE DRIFTS

WNW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

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Guys, we don't need to post the NAM or the DGEX. They are not meant for warm core systems. That might change with the new NAM that is running parallel right now (I've not seen any documentation for its performance in the tropics), but for now, can we please limit model postings to things that are actually relevant. Thanks.

The DGEX isn't only worthless in the tropics. Apparently the higher grid resolution makes it easier to populate grids in mountainous terrain, even if the model is completely whatck. Not sure I understand that logic.

post-138-0-55481500-1309174227.jpg

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The GFS is trending to a slightly better organized disturbance and touch further N. I still see no sign of any low level circulation, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an invest later in the day.

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RECON has been tasked...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

0130 PM EDT MON 27 JUNE 2011

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2011

TCPOD NUMBER.....11-027

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

A. 28/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST

C. 28/1515Z

D. 21.0N 94.0W

E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71

A. 29/1200Z

B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE

C. 29/0930Z

D. 22.0N 96.0W

E. 29/1130Z TO 29/1600Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY

FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

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Up to Code Orange!

aaf3vb.gif

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ISPRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDSARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THESE WINDSARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVEUNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ONTUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THISDISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTYWINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THENEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

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A board surface low looks to forming just NW of Ciudad del Carmen this early afternoon. Latest marine surface charts suggest a 1007mb low along the wave axis...

The feature shows up on visible as well... although when you loop it, there is a broader low level rotation that is still partially over land.

2udxdsp.png

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The feature shows up on visible as well... although when you loop it, there is a broader low level rotation that is still partially over land.

Yeah, I was looking at Hi Res VIS Imagery while waiting for CARCAH to update and saw that during lunch hour, much to Strat747's surprise. Free thinking ftw...:P

BEGIN

NHC_ATCF

invest_al952011.invest

FSTDA

R

U

040

010

0000

201106271742

NONE

NOTIFY=ATRP

END

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If the GFS is right, it should be a TD by landfall, and maybe a bare minimum TS. Way too far South for any rain here.

Home made NASA zoomed visible floater.

Yep, unfortunately too far S for anything other than Deep South TX, but a nice drought buster for MX.

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As modeled, the precip gradient is very tight, though. BRO picks up 3-4", CRP gets .5-1", and IAH only .1"

We saw a very similar gradient with the rains last week. At this point, the cotton producers will take what they can get.

I went TD this morning as well.

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Since 95L/possible future 01L/Arlene looks only modestly exciting, looking for 96L/possible Bret, and we may not have to wait forever.

If we can pop out something interesting every week to 10 days during the slow part (June/July), I think we're doing ok.

post-138-0-93607900-1309267960.gif

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Nice, it trended toward my idea instead! :whistle: I'm just messing with you. Yeah, I didn't like 6/20, I thought it was too early.

My prediction for the first named storm will occur in the 6/28-7/2 window with 6/30 as my best guess. If it doesn't happen then, then perhaps we'll have to wait until the last days of July, although I'm not too sure on that yet. It's a tough year for long range forecasting (when's it ever easy, haha).

I am loving my window for the first named storm but I am starting to think I should have picked 6/29 for the first named storm.:thumbsup:

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You know it!

You ready for an active July? Of course I was ready for that last year! :axe: fail

You weren't alone :arrowhead:

An active first half probably, because I think that the 2nd half and first week of August isn't gonna be that exciting.

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