am19psu Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Snooze if you want, but it's a start and certainly a weak tropical system is just what the doctor ordered in the long reaching drought we are having in the Gulf region. As modeled, the precip gradient is very tight, though. BRO picks up 3-4", CRP gets .5-1", and IAH only .1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Snip from the 8:00AM TWD : BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND APPEARS TO BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 20N WHERE A SURFACE LOW MAY BE FORMING. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF SRN MEXICO FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 91W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 88W-96W...AND FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 85-88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE ERN GULF FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 82W-88W. THE WAVE WILL LIKELY KEEP MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE SRN GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FORM AS THE WAVE DRIFTS WNW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Guys, we don't need to post the NAM or the DGEX. They are not meant for warm core systems. That might change with the new NAM that is running parallel right now (I've not seen any documentation for its performance in the tropics), but for now, can we please limit model postings to things that are actually relevant. Thanks. The DGEX isn't only worthless in the tropics. Apparently the higher grid resolution makes it easier to populate grids in mountainous terrain, even if the model is completely whatck. Not sure I understand that logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 FWIW, I took a TD into Tampico this morning. Yay, rain for Jorge. The GFS is blah, I agree, but the Euro is probably a TS verbatim....3 days before landfall would be enough to get the necessary organization, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 The GFS is blah, I agree, but the Euro is probably a TS verbatim....3 days before landfall would be enough to get the necessary organization, IMO. Yeah, it wasn't a sophisticated forecast. I just took a consensus between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 FWIW, through hour 18, the 12z GFS has a much better 850mb vorticity signature than previous runs. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/20110627/12/gfs_wnatl_018_850vor_500ht_200wd.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Yeah, it wasn't a sophisticated forecast. I just took a consensus between the two. It will be basically a rainmaker, nonetheless...a good thing for one of the worst droughts on record in Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Visible is showing the best low level turning still inland over the Yucatan, and pretty far south too. It is still very poorly organized, so it won't be surprising if we get a better organized center reforming further north where the convection is pulsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 The GFS is trending to a slightly better organized disturbance and touch further N. I still see no sign of any low level circulation, but I wouldn't be surprised to see an invest later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Loosely organized and coming off the Yucatan North of 20º, please. If it isn't Josh chaseable, I wanna something sloppy enough to rain on my lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 A board surface low looks to forming just NW of Ciudad del Carmen this early afternoon. Latest marine surface charts suggest a 1007mb low along the wave axis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 RECON has been tasked... WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0130 PM EDT MON 27 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-027 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70 A. 28/1800Z B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST C. 28/1515Z D. 21.0N 94.0W E. 28/1730Z TO 28/2200Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71 A. 29/1200Z B. AFXXX 0201A CYCLONE C. 29/0930Z D. 22.0N 96.0W E. 29/1130Z TO 29/1600Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Thank you Ceye and Gcane. Srain for mod! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Up to Code Orange! 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE ISPRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDSARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THESE WINDSARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVEUNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ONTUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THISDISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTYWINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THENEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 A board surface low looks to forming just NW of Ciudad del Carmen this early afternoon. Latest marine surface charts suggest a 1007mb low along the wave axis... The feature shows up on visible as well... although when you loop it, there is a broader low level rotation that is still partially over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 The feature shows up on visible as well... although when you loop it, there is a broader low level rotation that is still partially over land. Yeah, I was looking at Hi Res VIS Imagery while waiting for CARCAH to update and saw that during lunch hour, much to Strat747's surprise. Free thinking ftw... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al952011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201106271742 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 If the GFS is right, it should be a TD by landfall, and maybe a bare minimum TS. Way too far South for any rain here. Home made NASA zoomed visible floater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 If the GFS is right, it should be a TD by landfall, and maybe a bare minimum TS. Way too far South for any rain here. Home made NASA zoomed visible floater. Yep, unfortunately too far S for anything other than Deep South TX, but a nice drought buster for MX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 As modeled, the precip gradient is very tight, though. BRO picks up 3-4", CRP gets .5-1", and IAH only .1" We saw a very similar gradient with the rains last week. At this point, the cotton producers will take what they can get. I went TD this morning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 If the GFS is right, it should be a TD by landfall, and maybe a bare minimum TS. Way too far South for any rain here. The Euro, on the other hand... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 The Euro, on the other hand... Yeah, 35-50 kts TS probably, just N of Tampico...probably a few inches here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Almost 23º at the databuoy off Islip, and it is still June. It could be a good year for NY/SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Since 95L/possible future 01L/Arlene looks only modestly exciting, looking for 96L/possible Bret, and we may not have to wait forever. If we can pop out something interesting every week to 10 days during the slow part (June/July), I think we're doing ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Interesting to see the 12Z GFS and Canadian suggest a storm coming out of the NW Caribbean in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Nice, it trended toward my idea instead! I'm just messing with you. Yeah, I didn't like 6/20, I thought it was too early. My prediction for the first named storm will occur in the 6/28-7/2 window with 6/30 as my best guess. If it doesn't happen then, then perhaps we'll have to wait until the last days of July, although I'm not too sure on that yet. It's a tough year for long range forecasting (when's it ever easy, haha). I am loving my window for the first named storm but I am starting to think I should have picked 6/29 for the first named storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 I am loving my window for the first named storm but I am starting to think I should have picked 6/29 for the first named storm. Braggart! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 Braggart! You know it! You ready for an active July? Of course I was ready for that last year! fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 28, 2011 Share Posted June 28, 2011 You know it! You ready for an active July? Of course I was ready for that last year! fail You weren't alone An active first half probably, because I think that the 2nd half and first week of August isn't gonna be that exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 The trend continues with the 00Z suite suggesting another disturbance riding out of the NW Caribbean into the Western Gulf in the medium/long range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 29, 2011 Share Posted June 29, 2011 The trend continues with the 00Z suite suggesting another disturbance riding out of the NW Caribbean into the Western Gulf in the medium/long range... Yep, it takes "Bret" into Texas, and "Cindy" across the Yucatan into Northern Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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