Superstorm93 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Almost a pity lemon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Models are trending stronger again starting around 0z Wednesday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 Models are trending stronger again starting around 0z Wednesday... And the NHC has raised the Lemon to 20%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Models are trending stronger again starting around 0z Wednesday... A bit N as well. Tampico? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 26, 2011 Author Share Posted June 26, 2011 Looks kinda sad this morning. I guess it'll fire up again later in the day-- these things always wax and wane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Looking a bit further E, a strong tropical wave between 30W and 40W has some model support be a feature to watch during the week ahead as it treks W toward the Windward Islands... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Looks kinda sad this morning. I guess it'll fire up again later in the day-- these things always wax and wane. Meh, I'm not expecting anything truly interesting until Tuesday-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 A bit of a hint of things to come from CARCAH this morning concerning our disturbance over the Yucatan... NOUS42 KNHC 261515 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1115 AM EDT SUN 26 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-026 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST IN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21.0N 95.0W FOR 28/1800Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Some interesting tidbits about global ACE. http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 I thought he left fsu? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 I thought he left fsu? He's employed at NRL now. He might have some sort of adjunct thing going on at FSU, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 This system really poses some similarities to the genesis of Gert back in 2005. Both straddled the Yucatan Peninsula and had to deal with an upper level feature to their west. Gert went on to become a loosely organized tropical storm, and I'd say the current disturbance has an increasingly likely chance of doing the same. Pre-Gert Disturbance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 The overall trend today via the 12Z models has been for a more developed disturbance and a bit further N. I would not be surprised to see a TD or TS form later this week. 12Z Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 12znam hr 78 simulated reflectivity FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 This system really poses some similarities to the genesis of Gert back in 2005. Both straddled the Yucatan Peninsula and had to deal with an upper level feature to their west. Gert went on to become a loosely organized tropical storm, and I'd say the current disturbance has an increasingly likely chance of doing the same. Gert is a pretty interesting analog. I don't know the synoptic details of that system all that well, but I remember it was spinning up rapidly right before it made landfall. I was down at HRD at the time, and the last eyewall penetration from the NOAA plane had severe turbulence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 12znam hr 78 simulated reflectivity FWIW Where does that figure come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Where does that figure come from? http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/weather/ncepwrf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Guys, we don't need to post the NAM or the DGEX. They are not meant for warm core systems. That might change with the new NAM that is running parallel right now (I've not seen any documentation for its performance in the tropics), but for now, can we please limit model postings to things that are actually relevant. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Fair enough... NAM4/ NAM Para Much weaker: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Looking at Accuweather Professional Euro images, @ hr 96 this system peaks around 1002 mb, actually the strongest I've seen the Euro with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Looking at Accuweather Professional Euro images, @ hr 96 this system peaks around 1002 mb, actually the strongest I've seen the Euro with this system. Yes and EURO also looks like it might be a little further North with the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Hey folks, if you are going to post models, please at least use numerical guidance that is for warm core, deep tropical systems and not meso models. Those are useless and add nothing to the conversation at all. Meanwhile, the 12Z Euro ensembles continue to suggest a more organized and further N tracking system... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 I've updated my tropical weather blog discussing the potential of the Yucatan disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Let me know what you guys think. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 I've updated my tropical weather blog discussing the potential of the Yucatan disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Let me know what you guys think. http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/ Nice post-- well-written and explained, I think! I'm not too excited about this one. My hunch is that it's too far S and doesn't have enough "shape" to it yet. I just don't see it spinning up into anything interesting, given the small amount of space and time it will have to work with. That's just my gut feeling, unsupported by science or models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Nice post-- well-written and explained, I think! I'm not too excited about this one. My hunch is that it's too far S and doesn't have enough "shape" to it yet. I just don't see it spinning up into anything interesting, given the small amount of space and time it will have to work with. That's just my gut feeling, unsupported by science or models. Thanks! I think the "shape" will become more obvious once convection starts to develop over the GOM during the diurnal max. Right now its not surprising things aren't very organized given the westerly winds aloft over the Bay of Campeche. Despite what the GFS is projecting, I'm not sure how fast the anticyclone is going to build in place. Also, we are going to need the system to slow down markedly in order for the anticyclone to have a chance to build over it. The models show this happening, but if we don't get some substantial convective development later today, the low level features might just outrun the more favorable environment and then you can forget about any TCG happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 FWIW, I took a TD into Tampico this morning. Yay, rain for Jorge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 27, 2011 Author Share Posted June 27, 2011 FWIW, I took a TD into Tampico this morning. Yay, rain for Jorge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 27, 2011 Share Posted June 27, 2011 Snooze if you want, but it's a start and certainly a weak tropical system is just what the doctor ordered in the long reaching drought we are having in the Gulf region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.