HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 18z GFS brings Arlene to Corpus... in 2 weeks. I've had enough o' you for this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 hurtyhurtz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 I've had enough o' you for this week. Calm down rainstorm, it is still June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 hurtyhurtz Jorge did hurt me. He played with my head-- put ideas in it. He knows how easy it is to manipulate me. Anyhoo... I'm just going to be patient and focus on reanalysis research until something pops. Reanalysis is like the hurricane chaser's knitting project-- something to quietly pass the time with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Jorge did hurt me. He played with my head-- put ideas in it. He knows how easy it is to manipulate me. Anyhoo... I'm just going to be patient and focus on reanalysis research until something pops. Reanalysis is like the hurricane chaser's knitting project-- something to quietly pass the time with. Speaking of which, I cleared my schedule this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 Speaking of which, I cleared my schedule this weekend... I wasn't going to ask, but I am excited to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 In other news, the Euro ensembles suggest something abit different than what the operational models are showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 In other news, the Euro ensembles suggest something abit different than what the operational models are showing... So what do you think about this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 So what do you think about this? In all honesty, I suspect the models are suggesting lower pressures across the Western Basin as tropical waves become a bit more active. The numerical guidance will often spin up spurious lows when a pattern change takes place as we have seen this past week. In fact now we see another such low showing up in some of the numerical guidance as the next wave enters the Caribbean early this week that spins up in the Western Gulf. What is a bit more certain is the mean sub tropical ridge that was firmly anchored across the Gulf in early June, has established its self further N in the Southern Plains. The Bermuda ridge is slowly taking shape that suggest tropical waves tracking into the Caribbean as we enter July will maintain a track that will slowly open the door to activity increasing within the Western Basin. The time is approaching when a legitimate TC will spin up and as the seasonal models have suggested, the Western Basin looks to have the best shot in regards to more favorable conditions for development. Keep an eye on the MJO data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 The stalled boundary has developed an area of low pressure that has re fired the past few hours. BRO stated in their marine forecast it would slowy translate E throughout the day. a new blob, but the area remains blobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 Today's blobs: SW Caribbean, W Gulf, SE EPAC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Trades across the MDR should remain weak for at least another 10 days which will allow the continued impressive warming that has been occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Definitely some rotation with our little system near Central America. Its shame its so close to the coastline, although the last few frames indicate a northwestward motion so it might be able to eek its way into the NW Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Definitely some rotation with our little system near Central America. Its shame its so close to the coastline, although the last few frames indicate a northwestward motion so it might be able to eek its way into the NW Caribbean. i like the way that those boundaries moving from E-W trigger/enhance convection...it's fun to watch as for some turning...it's super lame at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 25, 2011 Author Share Posted June 25, 2011 Definitely some rotation with our little system near Central America. Its shame its so close to the coastline, although the last few frames indicate a northwestward motion so it might be able to eek its way into the NW Caribbean. It definitely has a suggestive look-- almost seems lemonworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 rorschach test alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 i like the way that those boundaries moving from E-W trigger/enhance convection...it's fun to watch as for some turning...it's super lame at best No doubt the trade winds are helping out the vorticity on the north and east flanks of this system, but really that's what we want since that might help to pull this system further north. If the bulk of the system can get out into the NW Caribbean, that would significantly improve its chance for development before the ridge centered over the Midwest strengthens further and forces a westward turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Just like 3 and 4 days ago, the GFS is about a week away from a TC off Mexico. Pretty sure the TC that was going to be there around Wednesday or Thursday based on the mid week GFS runs isn't going to be there, which leads me to somewhat doubt this solution as well. One of these days a 180/192 hour GFS cyclone will verify, I'm sure of that. Home made NASA satellite loop, if I lemonized anything, it would be South of El Salvador. Regardless of verification of bias on 500 mb temps with the new GFS, until it out performs the Euro, when they disagree, I am going to lean towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Not sure why everyone is writing off next week already. It's certainly not going to be a 'cane, but a TD or a weak TS is certainly still within the realm of possibility. I don't think the odds are better than 2-1 against, but it's certainly plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Not sure why everyone is writing off next week already. It's certainly not going to be a 'cane, but a TD or a weak TS is certainly still within the realm of possibility. I don't think the odds are better than 2-1 against, but it's certainly plausible. If it doesn't happen, does that prove that all the models were doing was spitting out climo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Not sure why everyone is writing off next week already. It's certainly not going to be a 'cane, but a TD or a weak TS is certainly still within the realm of possibility. I don't think the odds are better than 2-1 against, but it's certainly plausible. Yeah, if it can get into the BoC and get some latitude on it it should end up developing into a weak TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Looks like just a hint of mid level spin along the wave axis via NASA HI RES VIS Imagery in the NW Caribbean. HPC: FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST...THE COORDINATION WITH NHC RESULTED IN ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM STAYING NEAR THE GULF OF CAMPECHE FOR THIS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Gets a "Meh" at best. 1. A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCINGWIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THEWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. TROPICAL CYCLONEFORMATION IS UNLIKELY WHILE THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVELTROUGH...AND WITH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OFCAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECASTTO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR.THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING ATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OFDEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALLAND GUSTY WINDS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND ADJACENTCARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVESWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 I just realized we have a 10% Code Yellow now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Terrible tropical model...not likely to ever "score" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 If the ECMWF is "The King", the DGEX is "The Jester" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 If the ECMWF is "The King", the DGEX is "The Jester" That literally made me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 Out of curiousity, has a hurricane ever made US landfall on July 4th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 26, 2011 Share Posted June 26, 2011 I'm really curious to see what the feature on the edge of the NW Caribbean decides to do during the diurnal max this morning. It looks like the best low level vorticity has remained offshore, and we could see some frictional help from the land nearby to get this circulation going if we can get a significant burst of convective activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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