Floydbuster Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 You're berry kind. I like how that video came out-- it has its moments. It was a weird cyclone. Perhaps because it was falling apart so fast as it came ashore, the winds very erratic and gusty-- there was a jerky, unpredictable quality to them. What if Karl would have continued to strengthen to the 140 mph Cat 4 it was predicted to? You seemed to be an area of almost no shelter, and what would happen if Hurricane Charley-type winds roared into your car? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 I asked in the chase thread do you normally aim the car downwind to try to keep the windshield clear from rain... Yep, I'll answer ya there. What if Karl would have continued to strengthen to the 140 mph Cat 4 it was predicted to? You seemed to be an area of almost no shelter, and what would happen if Hurricane Charley-type winds roared into your car? I would have gotten some d*mn sexy 'cane footage, that's what would have happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Its a good thing we have models, or else I'd be guessing this winds up in the EastPac thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Not that it matters much since it's the NAM, but the NAM and it's parallel keep it weak and/or buried in MX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 The blob in the W Gulf-- the rotting tail end of that long front-- has persisted for a good 24 hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 The blob in the W Gulf-- the rotting tail end of that long front-- has persisted for a good 24 hr: The stalled boundary has developed an area of low pressure that has re fired the past few hours. BRO stated in their marine forecast it would slowy translate E throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Regarding the Western Caribbean wave. The model trends over night have been to slow everything down, development wise. The GFS, UKMET has slowed even further and are the slowest to develop any system in the BoC. The Euro, Canadian and Nogaps tend to be the furthest S with the Euro and Nogaps slowing things down a tad as well. The Canadian suggests a bit quicker development and brings it onshore S of Tampico on Wednesday. Interesting that a slower development may allow for a bit further N migration as a weakness in the Ridge is suggested later next week. My hunch is this may take awhile to spin up, if it does at all and would be a fairly large area of disturbed weather. Much like what we saw last year with Alex. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Regarding the Western Caribbean wave. The EURO appears quiescent throughout the period. The Son of Rotting front tail seems weak and ill-defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 The EURO appears quiescent throughout the period. The Son of Rotting front tail seems weak and ill-defined. The S TX low is along a trough. That feature should remain weak and ill defined. What is interesting is that lower pressures look to be left across the SW and Southern Gulf. Certainly a pattern change from what we have seen so far this season and is likely a piece of the puzzle re: any future BoC development, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 If anything does develop in the next week to 10 days, I think it has about equal chances of being Calvin as Arlene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Rather impressive flare up of convective activity in the SW Caribbean this morning. Shear remains strong to the N, but should relax as we head into the weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 ^ is that the nasa domain that makes everything white or were the cloud tops really that cold? edit...nvm...confirmed it for myself...the caribbean and west atlantic domain is still totally messed up and shows every blob as crazy white still is some nice covection, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 ^ is that the nasa domain that makes everything white or were the cloud tops really that cold? edit...nvm...confirmed it for myself...the caribbean and west atlantic domain is still totally messed up and shows every blob as crazy white still is some nice covection, though. Briefly had a -80º pixel or two, now the coldest are about -70ºC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 The blob in the W Gulf-- the rotting tail end of that long front-- has persisted for a good 24 hr: June blob watching FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Like the 06Z run, the 12Z GFS suggests a weak area of low pressure buried in the BoC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Like the 06Z run, the 12Z GFS suggests a weak area of low pressure buried in the BoC. Still about 3 days out from actual verification day, but at least the first round of the mano a mano, bare knuckle brawl between the GFS and the Euro seems to be leaning towards the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Like the 06Z run, the 12Z GFS suggests a weak area of low pressure buried in the BoC. Or not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 Like the 06Z run, the 12Z GFS suggests a weak area of low pressure buried in the BoC. Lameness. What a c*cktease the GFS is turning out to be. I'm pretty annoyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 I still think GFS against the world, or even GFS and Canadian against the world, sadly, we lose the Ryder Cup of the model wars... Edit to add- the resolution lobotomy after 192 is such BS. Who knows what the GFS will show, not that it matters. If computing time is important, just run it to 240 hours full bore. If NCEP is curious about trends Days 11 to 15 keep running the ensembles and see if they show any pattern or trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Lameness. What a c*cktease the GFS is turning out to be. I'm pretty annoyed. You can always hug the Canadian... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Edit to add- the resolution lobotomy after 192 is such BS. Who knows what the GFS will show, not that it matters. If computing time is important, just run it to 240 hours full bore. If NCEP is curious about trends Days 11 to 15 keep running the ensembles and see if they show any pattern or trend. First, I agree....and I would much rather have a full resolution GFS forecast to day 10 (heck, I'd even sacrifice more by only running the 06/18z forecasts out to 126 hours .... enough for boundary conditions for the NAM, RR, Hurricane, and other guidance). The GEFS already does run out to 384 hours. These kinds of discussions do happen now and again, btw; but perhaps things will finally have to change soon since...... Computing time is already beyond critical levels, and the fiscal situation isn't helping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Like the 06Z run, the 12Z GFS suggests a weak area of low pressure buried in the BoC. And the 12z Euro is farther north... but it still shows not much to talk home about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 So much for that slowing down idea near the Yucatan over the weekend. The good news is the potential rainfall for S TX and NE Mexico. HPC afternoon Update: RAINFALL MAGNITUDE/CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS REMAIN A QUESTION MARK MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...DEPENDENT UPON DEVELOPMENTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHERLY TREND IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/CANADIAN GUIDANCE...ENOUGH 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /NEARLY ONE-QUARTER OR 20 OF THE 90/ MOVE THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE IN THE PERIOD SO A TEXAS LANDFALL SCENARIO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 17Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC SPED THIS SYSTEM UP SOMEWHAT FROM YESTERDAY AND KEPT THIS SYSTEM MOVING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 And the 12z Euro is farther north... but it still shows not much to talk home about. Looks like an open wave... Now, in the longer run, even though I suspect better video from Josh and his type if a major hits South Florida, born in Queens, NY, after all and raised in the 11758, the databuoy off Islip is now in excess of 20º, and it isn't even July yet. /:weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Lameness. What a c*cktease the GFS is turning out to be. I'm pretty annoyed. Sooner or later the GFS will give you more then a lap dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 Sooner or later the GFS will give you more then a lap dance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 18z GFS brings Arlene to Corpus... in 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 This imaginary storm sucks. WGAF if it gets lemond for 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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