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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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:wub:

You're berry kind. I like how that video came out-- it has its moments.

It was a weird cyclone. Perhaps because it was falling apart so fast as it came ashore, the winds very erratic and gusty-- there was a jerky, unpredictable quality to them.

What if Karl would have continued to strengthen to the 140 mph Cat 4 it was predicted to? You seemed to be an area of almost no shelter, and what would happen if Hurricane Charley-type winds roared into your car?

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I asked in the chase thread do you normally aim the car downwind to try to keep the windshield clear from rain...

Yep, I'll answer ya there. :)

What if Karl would have continued to strengthen to the 140 mph Cat 4 it was predicted to? You seemed to be an area of almost no shelter, and what would happen if Hurricane Charley-type winds roared into your car?

I would have gotten some d*mn sexy 'cane footage, that's what would have happened. B)

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The blob in the W Gulf-- the rotting tail end of that long front-- has persisted for a good 24 hr:

The stalled boundary has developed an area of low pressure that has re fired the past few hours. BRO stated in their marine forecast it would slowy translate E throughout the day.

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Regarding the Western Caribbean wave. The model trends over night have been to slow everything down, development wise. The GFS, UKMET has slowed even further and are the slowest to develop any system in the BoC. The Euro, Canadian and Nogaps tend to be the furthest S with the Euro and Nogaps slowing things down a tad as well. The Canadian suggests a bit quicker development and brings it onshore S of Tampico on Wednesday. Interesting that a slower development may allow for a bit further N migration as a weakness in the Ridge is suggested later next week. My hunch is this may take awhile to spin up, if it does at all and would be a fairly large area of disturbed weather. Much like what we saw last year with Alex. We will see.

post-32-0-72770300-1308909539.png

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The EURO appears quiescent throughout the period.

The Son of Rotting front tail seems weak and ill-defined.

The S TX low is along a trough. That feature should remain weak and ill defined. What is interesting is that lower pressures look to be left across the SW and Southern Gulf. Certainly a pattern change from what we have seen so far this season and is likely a piece of the puzzle re: any future BoC development, IMO.

post-32-0-69680500-1308918975.gif

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^

is that the nasa domain that makes everything white or were the cloud tops really that cold?

edit...nvm...confirmed it for myself...the caribbean and west atlantic domain is still totally messed up and shows every blob as crazy white

post-22-0-75183600-1308926666.jpg

post-22-0-35380300-1308926675.jpg

still is some nice covection, though.

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^

is that the nasa domain that makes everything white or were the cloud tops really that cold?

edit...nvm...confirmed it for myself...the caribbean and west atlantic domain is still totally messed up and shows every blob as crazy white

post-22-0-75183600-1308926666.jpg

post-22-0-35380300-1308926675.jpg

still is some nice covection, though.

Briefly had a -80º pixel or two, now the coldest are about -70ºC

post-138-0-04703400-1308931138.jpg

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Like the 06Z run, the 12Z GFS suggests a weak area of low pressure buried in the BoC.

Still about 3 days out from actual verification day, but at least the first round of the mano a mano, bare knuckle brawl between the GFS and the Euro seems to be leaning towards the Euro.

post-138-0-35276100-1308932796.gif

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I still think GFS against the world, or even GFS and Canadian against the world, sadly, we lose the Ryder Cup of the model wars...

Edit to add- the resolution lobotomy after 192 is such BS. Who knows what the GFS will show, not that it matters. If computing time is important, just run it to 240 hours full bore. If NCEP is curious about trends Days 11 to 15 keep running the ensembles and see if they show any pattern or trend.

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Edit to add- the resolution lobotomy after 192 is such BS. Who knows what the GFS will show, not that it matters. If computing time is important, just run it to 240 hours full bore. If NCEP is curious about trends Days 11 to 15 keep running the ensembles and see if they show any pattern or trend.

First, I agree....and I would much rather have a full resolution GFS forecast to day 10 (heck, I'd even sacrifice more by only running the 06/18z forecasts out to 126 hours .... enough for boundary conditions for the NAM, RR, Hurricane, and other guidance). The GEFS already does run out to 384 hours. These kinds of discussions do happen now and again, btw; but perhaps things will finally have to change soon since......

Computing time is already beyond critical levels, and the fiscal situation isn't helping.

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So much for that slowing down idea near the Yucatan over the weekend. The good news is the potential rainfall for S TX and NE Mexico. HPC afternoon Update:

RAINFALL MAGNITUDE/CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS REMAIN A QUESTION

MARK MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...DEPENDENT UPON DEVELOPMENTS IN THE

WESTERN CARIBBEAN/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN A

SOUTHERLY TREND IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS/CANADIAN

GUIDANCE...ENOUGH 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS /NEARLY ONE-QUARTER OR 20

OF THE 90/ MOVE THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS LATE IN THE PERIOD SO

A TEXAS LANDFALL SCENARIO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE 17Z

COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC SPED THIS SYSTEM UP SOMEWHAT FROM

YESTERDAY AND KEPT THIS SYSTEM MOVING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH THAT

SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN TEXAS

LATE NEXT WEEK.

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And the 12z Euro is farther north... but it still shows not much to talk home about.

Looks like an open wave...

Now, in the longer run, even though I suspect better video from Josh and his type if a major hits South Florida, born in Queens, NY, after all and raised in the 11758, the databuoy off Islip is now in excess of 20º, and it isn't even July yet.

/:weenie:

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