am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Didn't say it still exists. I only said we don't yet know, which is true. Is it? I'm just starting to look at the stats more closely, but the UKMet had a pretty significant bias in both the lat/lon directions, whereas the GFS didn't have much of a longitudinal bias at all (but did have a latitudinal bias of the opposite sign). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Is it? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Yes. We're going to agree to disagree on this one on two different levels. Last year, the GFS didn't exhibit a poleward bias, according to dtk. Also, the null hypothesis shouldn't be bias exists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Bluewave's point earlier is right. We can't say definitively whether or not the GFS' poleward bias is gone. Just because the GFS doesn't have a bias to lower heights too much hemispherically really doesn't tell you much. Maybe it won't have the poleward bias, but there's no way to know yet. Yes there is, we re-ran almost two years worth of simulated days with the new model before implementation..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 We're going to agree to disagree on this one on two different levels. Last year, the GFS didn't exhibit a poleward bias, according to dtk. Also, the null hypothesis shouldn't be bias exists. We need more than one season to look at. And there should be no expectation at all. No one should assume bias will exist. And no one should assume it won't. It just has to play out and be assessed with enough of a sample to make a definitive conclusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Yes there is, we re-ran almost two years worth of simulated days with the new model before implementation..... Ok. Well in THAT case, yeah maybe there is reason to think it is fixed. I didn't see this posted earlier but apologies if I just missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Ok. Well in THAT case, yeah maybe there is reason to think it is fixed. I didn't see this posted earlier but apologies if I just missed it. Well, to your point, it is certainly seasonal (and case) dependent. I honestly haven't parsed through all of the 2008 and 2009 runs that we did with the new model to look for track bias, but my comments regarding the 2010 season are valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Well, to your point, it is certainly seasonal (and case) dependent. I honestly haven't parsed through all of the 2008 and 2009 runs that we did with the new model to look for track bias, but my comments regarding the 2010 season are valid. Cool. Yeah I hope you didn't take it as me saying that I didn't trust what you said. Definitely not the case. Just interested to see how this season goes so we get more examples under the new GFS' belt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 HPC prelim morning discussion. I personally hope the GFS scores a coup with a near border landfall of a system loosely enough organized to throw copious moisture well in Texas away from the border. AT LOWER LATITUDES THE CANADIAN IS THESTRONGEST/FARTHEST NORTH WITH LOW PRESSURE FCST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. THE 00Z CANADIAN APPEARS A BIT TOO STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM CONSIDERING THE COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAYS 17Z NHC/HPC COORDINATED DEPICTION STILL MAKES SENSE PER THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST NEXT THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Hopefully all this GFS discussion won’t get me into trouble....looks like a sloppy system that becomes a bit better organized as the Central Caribbean wave approaches the Yucatan sometime during the weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 GFS suggests a slowly developing system crawling NNW from the Bay of Campeche... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 GFS suggests a slowly developing system crawling NNW from the Bay of Campeche... Looks like shear will be a non factor. Probably the main cons will be land and looseness. Impressive UL anticyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHLChase54 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I love watching how the storm evolves! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 12z GFS suggests and incoming trough coming just in time to pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Through 144 hours the 12z Canadian looks to have a stronger ridge in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Through 144 hours the 12z Canadian looks to have a stronger ridge in place Yeah. The GFS seems North of most of the models. I'm not super heavy on my models, I know the Canadian is genesis happy, but I don't know if it has a known track bias. Still waiting for King Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 The upper level environment being portrayed by the model guidance is outstanding just as the isobars tighten in the Western Gulf. It would likely result in a steady strengthening trend given the very hot sea surface temperatures. The GFS longer range has this system almost becoming trapped due to the heights to the north over the Northern Gulf Coast, and eventually the system gets more ragged. I have a feeling, however, this is more in part due to being more and more long-range and thus the resolution getting worse through time. Also, with the ridging, it seems nothing is really there to pick up the system. If this were to develop and get too far south in the Bay of Campeche, I highly doubt it would ever pull north. But...it has happened alot in the past, so we shall see if Arlene develops and if it does, how well these models did a week in advance. Of course, I'm rooting for Arlene to form before then, only because I think Hurricane Bret has a much cooler sound to it LOLOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Yeah. The GFS seems North of most of the models. I'm not super heavy on my models, I know the Canadian is genesis happy, but I don't know if it has a known track bias. Still waiting for King Euro... 12z essentially the same as 0z... a touch weaker/earlier/farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 The Euro is S in the Bay of Campeche...that said, it does show the Ridge shifting E... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Yeah. The GFS seems North of most of the models. I'm not super heavy on my models, I know the Canadian is genesis happy, but I don't know if it has a known track bias. Of the operational global models that I looked at (for 2010), the CMC had the worst speed and cross-track bias of any model (and it wasn't even close). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 HPC afternoon Update: ASSOCIATED MID LVL ENERGY SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE RESIDUAL WEAK MEAN TROF ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST POTENTIALLY RETROGRADING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. AT LOWER LATITUDES...THE 12Z CANADIAN SHIFTED SOUTH TOWARDS THE REMAINDER OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WITH LOW PRESSURE FCST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. THE 17Z NHC/HPC COORDINATION CALL LED TO EXCELLENT CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEMS TRACK CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST NEXT THURSDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 It may not spend enough time feet wet to ever get named... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 NWS CRP is on it. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TROPICAL ACTIVITY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OFNEXT WEEK. GFS IS STILL A CLEAR NORTHERN OUTLIER...SO HAVE PROCEEDED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT MOISTURE POOL AND ANY CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...INLINE WITH THE NON-GFS MODEL CONSENSUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 It may not spend enough time feet wet to ever get named... Good. Mexico isn't worth wasting named storms on anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 Good. Mexico isn't worth wasting named storms on anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Good. Mexico isn't worth wasting named storms on anyways. My inlaws are from Mexico. Plus Josh's Karl U-Tube footage of stuff hitting his car was good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 My inlaws are from Mexico. Plus Josh's Karl U-Tube footage of stuff hitting his car was good. You're berry kind. I like how that video came out-- it has its moments. It was a weird cyclone. Perhaps because it was falling apart so fast as it came ashore, the winds were very erratic and gusty-- there was a jerky, unpredictable quality to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 You're berry kind. I like how that video came out-- it has its moments. It was a weird cyclone. Perhaps because it was falling apart so fast as it came ashore, the winds very erratic and gusty-- there was a jerky, unpredictable quality to them. I asked in the chase thread do you normally aim the car downwind to try to keep the windshield clear from rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kwt Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I remember Alex and the ECM kept trying to bury it into deep south Mexico (multiple runs it was way too far south) whilst the GFS/GFDL were both almost equally too far north. Will have to see what happens, doubt re get anything too noteable, maybe a quick fire 45-55kts TS before it buries itself into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I remember Alex and the ECM kept trying to bury it into deep south Mexico (multiple runs it was way too far south) whilst the GFS/GFDL were both almost equally too far north. Will have to see what happens, doubt re get anything too noteable, maybe a quick fire 45-55kts TS before it buries itself into Mexico. Yeah, even the modelology resemblance is uncanny...now we need a 958 cat1 on June 30th with it's aim set to Tamaulipas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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