Normandy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Thanks for your faith in me. I should disclose that I am in the process of "testing" the methodology, to make sure I'm applying it correctly. am19psu is working with me on this project-- it's a joint effort. So my calculations could be wrong. It will be interesting to see what the real reanalysis dudes say about Camille when they get to it. I agree that wind-damage pics should be factored in-- but keep in mind that the max winds covered a very, very narrow section of the coast, near Pass Christian. A lot of the pics people see are from Biloxi or Gulfport, which were outside of the RMW and did not get the max winds. Images of Pass Christian, within a couple of blocks of the water, are what's needed, and there aren't that many. I need to do some more searching. A good indicator is of course the trees-- are they stripped or not? Etc. http://camille.passchristian.net/camille_the_storm.htm Josh there is a good website with some pics of Pass Christian. As you can see in a lot of the photos, many of the trees still retained there foliage despite apparently going through extreme winds (Of at least 145 mph + if Camille was indeed a true Cat 5). The main argument that I have gotten when showing these photos is that these location were underwater when Camille came through. This of course is wildy inaccurate, as the higest Camille's surge got was 24 feet (which would barely cover a two-story house with a pitched roof). The trees in these photos are some 50 feet tall, which would expose a most of the trees to the wind. When you examine the damage of Cat5's, you see the wintry look afterwards (which simply is present in Pass Christian). I know Camille is touchy subject for some, but I feel it needs to be analyzed from both your methodology (RMW calcs and such) and also in the same manner tornadoes are analyzed (damage assessment). I think a blend of both is best. Love to hear your thoughts of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flwxwatcher45 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 http://camille.passchristian.net/camille_the_storm.htm Josh there is a good website with some pics of Pass Christian. As you can see in a lot of the photos, many of the trees still retained there foliage despite apparently going through extreme winds (Of at least 145 mph + if Camille was indeed a true Cat 5). The main argument that I have gotten when showing these photos is that these location were underwater when Camille came through. This of course is wildy inaccurate, as the higest Camille's surge got was 24 feet (which would barely cover a two-story house with a pitched roof). The trees in these photos are some 50 feet tall, which would expose a most of the trees to the wind. When you examine the damage of Cat5's, you see the wintry look afterwards (which simply is present in Pass Christian). I know Camille is touchy subject for some, but I feel it needs to be analyzed from both your methodology (RMW calcs and such) and also in the same manner tornadoes are analyzed (damage assessment). I think a blend of both is best. Love to hear your thoughts of course I 100% agree with you-- that the best kind of reanalysis is a blended approach (calculated + damage assessment), and I would add a third factor, which is usually pretty elusive but which gets right to the heart of the matter: representative surface-wind obs from within the core. My work has been focused almost entirely on the calculations, as I'm particularly interested how close you can get just with this "mathematical modeling". This is particularly relevant for analyzing older storms, for which there's very little data and often no photos to work with. Back to Camille-- thanks, I hadn't seen these couple. The trees in my opinion look fairly well stripped-- although I see in one of the pics that ones in the background fared better. I need to sit down one afternoon and just do some deep Google-image searching. I agree with you that it's very relevant to this discussion. And, for the record, I am not 100% convinced it was a Cat 5-- but if I had to select an intensity, I would say it was. (My calculations yield 145 kt, by the way.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 To "Normandy" - I'm curious why you use that as an ID. Do you have a Norman background as I do? Are you familiar with Dieppe or other places in Normandy? Was your family involved in WWII? Are you familiar with the Berards or Monsieur Renoir? Learn to use the private message system. We expect an active season and OT conversations won't be tolerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Is the ship model bad for forecasting intensity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The 2011 Hurricane Season has officially begun! (where it matters...on the east coast) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Our 2011 hurricane season forecast has just been released, for those interested: http://28storms.com/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Invest 93L looks pretty awesome. It could pass for a micro-TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Invest 93L looks pretty awesome. It could pass for a micro-TC. Yeah, it doesn't look half bad...NHC tags it as a 10% lemon, with less than 24 hours before reaching the FL peninsula. Shear is <10 kts, SSTs are around 26-27C and there's ok low and mid level vorticity...but it looks fragile. I think it's 30% right now. That's the 50km resolution. The 25km resolution shows several 25-30 kts non rain contaminated wind vectors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Invest 93L looks pretty awesome. It could pass for a micro-TC. The evolution of 93L was through the same MCV that formed across the Great Lakes region on Sunday. Its remarkable that this feature has been able to persist for the last three days and is attempting to make one last hurrah before making landfall along the eastern seaboard. This is a pretty cool loop below. The ASCAT pass is interesting, because that is located near that little complex of storms offshore. A situation similar to what we saw with TD #1 (2009) is certainly on the table, although it might just likely run out of real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 KJAX has got it echoing around 70 kft. Must be well ventilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 LoL s/n is the street I grew up on. Invest 93L looks good I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bic Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm coming out of hibernation to say I've made the transfer over from the other board (was 'bic' over there) and I'm looking forward to following the season with you guys again. Maybe this will be the year I finally get to report on some action going down in my backyard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm coming out of hibernation to say I've made the transfer over from the other board (was 'bic' over there) and I'm looking forward to following the season with you guys again. Maybe this will be the year I finally get to report on some action going down in my backyard! Nice to see you, bic! Welcome back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 This year's names: Arlene Bret Cindy Don Emily Franklin Gert Harvey Irene Jose Katia Lee Maria Nate Ophelia Philippe Rina Sean Tammy Vince Whitney Notice that this is the infamous 2005 list recycled-- with several notables replaced (D, K, R, S, W). Hawt names that I'd like to chase: Arlene, Cindy, Katia, Lee, Maria, Whitney. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Katia.. oh damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Katia.. oh damn. It's interesting-- they replaced Katrina with another Slavic-sounding name. (This having been said, I believe Katia has mixed origins-- like Maria.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I remember Danny back in the 90s (97?) when it passed over my apartment in Lafayette as an MCS/MCV with intense lightning, and Rob Perillo the next day said it could develop in the Gulf. Northern Florida/South Georgia, not quite as dry as my yard, but dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wish it would gain some latitude. We need the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Hope Floridians are bracing for impact. Those 30 mph winds can really knock some leaves off trees, as well as ruin some hairdos... I truly hope for no utter devastation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Hope Floridians are bracing for impact. Those 30 mph winds can really knock some leaves off trees, as well as ruin some hairdos... I truly hope for no utter devastation! I'm not so sure the winds won't be locally stronger than that. The angle of approach and distance to radar sucks, but I can imagine there will be some locally strong winds >50 kts associated with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Happy Opening Day to you, All! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Happy Opening Day to you, All! Nice to have you both here for opening-day celebrations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Re: 93L.... It caught me by surprise, how decent it looks. And how strange that it sprung up on 01 June-- like clockwork. Almost as if it were on cue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Re: 93L.... It caught me by surprise, how decent it looks. And how strange that it sprung up on 01 June-- like clockwork. Almost as if it were on cue. It doesn't really have rotation on radar though. It looks more like a typical MCS, but I imagine the warm ocean water is giving it solid fuel for convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Seeing Emily still on the active list of names continues to mildly annoy me even after all this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm not so sure the winds won't be locally stronger than that. The angle of approach and distance to radar sucks, but I can imagine there will be some locally strong winds >50 kts associated with this. Oh I'm sure their will be some higher gusts but I was speaking more in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Opening Day is great especially when you have some action that will pass through your area. I finally got that window office on a high floor I have been after for years. I can't wait to watch the weather roll in today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Seeing Emily still on the active list of names continues to mildly annoy me even after all this time. Well, you want to know what annoys me? You just disappearing from the tropical discussions for months at a time! I hope this is the start of your re-commitment to our community. Opening Day is great especially when you have some action that will pass through your area. I finally got that window office on a high floor I have been after for years. I can't wait to watch the weather roll in today. Nice! Congrats on the cool view. Hopefully you'll need to be evacuated to the lower floors at some point this season because of high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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