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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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00z Canadian :guitar:

It ends up doing an uncanny Alex redux. 0z Euro is still far south, but it has gained latitude, and it's better defined. It looks like a very favorable upper level pattern, with a very diffluent environment aloft and a big fat anticyclone on top of the low. It comes down as how strong is the ridge over the Sern CONUS. It looks like a definite TX/MX threat. The break down of the 0z models is as follows:

GFS - just north of the MX/TX border

CMC - a bit north of La Pesca

NOGAPS - around Tampico

ECMWF - around Nautla

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It ends up doing an uncanny Alex redux. 0z Euro is still far south, but it has gained latitude, and it's better defined. It looks like a very favorable upper level pattern, with a very diffluent environment aloft and a big fat anticyclone on top of the low. It comes down as how strong is the ridge over the Sern CONUS. It looks like a definite TX/MX threat. The break down of the 0z models is as follows:

GFS - just north of the MX/TX border

CMC - a bit north of La Pesca

NOGAPS - around Tampico

ECMWF - around Nautla

NOGAPS, pls. Thx.

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It is sort of interesting the the Ridge is trending a bit further N in time. As Jorge stated, a TX/MX threat may well be in the works by mid next week...right on cue...

Austin/San Antonio NWS:

THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT

NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER

PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWFA.

THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM SPIN UP A SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY

TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM MOVE THIS FEATURE TOWARDS

TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO.

ATTM THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE.

post-32-0-74563400-1308818656.gif

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HPC:

AT LOWER LATITUDES THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST/FARTHEST NWD

WITH LOW PRESSURE FCST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO

NEXT WEEK. MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH YDAYS 17Z NHC/HPC

COORDINATED DEPICTION YIELDS A SOLN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NRN

PORTION OF THE SPREAD.

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How do you that the bias to break down the ridge to the north too soon has changed?

Because NCEP completely changed the radiation scheme last July and the GFS has not had a cold bias since then.

This graph goes back to 1996. Notice what happened last summer?

iSvEn.png

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Because NCEP completely changed the radiation scheme last July and the GFS has not had a cold bias since then.

This graph goes back to 1996. Notice what happened last summer?

iSvEn.png

That doesn't say much for storms is the Western Caribbean where the further north movement is beyond the 120 hr mark.

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That doesn't say much for storms is the Western Caribbean where the further north movement is beyond the 120 hr mark.

Whatever, man. Believe whatever you want. The GFS is much better as both a tropical model and synoptic model than it was at this time last year.

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Obviously we all want a landfall near the TX/MX border, best chance for rain locally if it isn't too tightly wound. But for consistency with runs and with ensembles, the Euro seems the most confident solution.

I agree, Ed. If I had a gun to my head, I'd probably put out a forecast somewhere between Tampico and Veracruz.

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Whatever, man. Believe whatever you want. The GFS is much better as both a tropical model and synoptic model than it was at this time last year.

Well, we'll see a mano a mano with the Euro in about a week. It will be interesting, assuming something forms (which seems more likely than not at this stage with apparently near universal model support) to see which is closer, since the solutions are different.

Of course, from almost a week out the border versus the far SW BoC isn't that huge. And one system isn't enough to be definitive on anything. But it will be interesting.

Won't post the GFS ensemble means from Alan's site since Adam says it isn't the most modern GFS package in the reduced resolution perturbations, but they seem to support the Euro as well.

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