Ed Lizard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 As Jorge noted elsewhere, the 18 fantasy cane making landfall somewhere on Padre Island would do miraculous things for our drought situation. Its not completely impossible it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHLChase54 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Is that an ensemble member or? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Interesting what the resolution lobotomy does to it imediately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Impressive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 loose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 A forty knot storm with an eye would be impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 A forty knot storm with an eye would be impressive. not really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Does the GFS really depict whether a storm is wrapped up tight or loose that well? I wouldnt think so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxCZAR Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 This is still a long ways away for the GFS. Although interesting and will be fun to watch, once you see green blobs on the majority of the page, the model is not too confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 00z GFS 90 hours: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 00z Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 00z Canadian It ends up doing an uncanny Alex redux. 0z Euro is still far south, but it has gained latitude, and it's better defined. It looks like a very favorable upper level pattern, with a very diffluent environment aloft and a big fat anticyclone on top of the low. It comes down as how strong is the ridge over the Sern CONUS. It looks like a definite TX/MX threat. The break down of the 0z models is as follows: GFS - just north of the MX/TX border CMC - a bit north of La Pesca NOGAPS - around Tampico ECMWF - around Nautla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 It ends up doing an uncanny Alex redux. 0z Euro is still far south, but it has gained latitude, and it's better defined. It looks like a very favorable upper level pattern, with a very diffluent environment aloft and a big fat anticyclone on top of the low. It comes down as how strong is the ridge over the Sern CONUS. It looks like a definite TX/MX threat. The break down of the 0z models is as follows: GFS - just north of the MX/TX border CMC - a bit north of La Pesca NOGAPS - around Tampico ECMWF - around Nautla NOGAPS, pls. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 IDK Josh, this is the same thing that the models did before Alex, and that's exactly what happened. Does Hurricane Arlene sound like a big mean June Texas storm to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 It is sort of interesting the the Ridge is trending a bit further N in time. As Jorge stated, a TX/MX threat may well be in the works by mid next week...right on cue... Austin/San Antonio NWS: THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...HOWEVER THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWFA. THE GFS/ECMWF AND GEM SPIN UP A SYSTEM IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND GEM MOVE THIS FEATURE TOWARDS TEXAS WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO. ATTM THE ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MORE PLAUSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 IDK Josh, this is the same thing that the models did before Alex, and that's exactly what happened. Does Hurricane Arlene sound like a big mean June Texas storm to you? It sounds like a vicious little microcane b*tch-- which I'd be cool with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 The W Gulf is on fire this morning-- the tail end of that front crossing the CONUS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 It sounds like a vicious little microcane b*tch-- which I'd be cool with. If the models do pan out, that seems to be a pretty favorable looking environment aloft for strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 HPC: AT LOWER LATITUDES THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE STRONGEST/FARTHEST NWD WITH LOW PRESSURE FCST TO TRACK ACROSS THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH YDAYS 17Z NHC/HPC COORDINATED DEPICTION YIELDS A SOLN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NRN PORTION OF THE SPREAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 The GFS was too far north with Alex last year. Which is irrelevant, since that was the old model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Which is irrelevant, since that was the old model. How do you that the bias to break down the ridge to the north too soon has changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 How do you that the bias to break down the ridge to the north too soon has changed? Because NCEP completely changed the radiation scheme last July and the GFS has not had a cold bias since then. This graph goes back to 1996. Notice what happened last summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Because NCEP completely changed the radiation scheme last July and the GFS has not had a cold bias since then. This graph goes back to 1996. Notice what happened last summer? That doesn't say much for storms is the Western Caribbean where the further north movement is beyond the 120 hr mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Obviously we all want a landfall near the TX/MX border, best chance for rain locally if it isn't too tightly wound. But for consistency with runs and with ensembles, the Euro seems the most confident solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 New morning video update on the model guidance showing our potential system: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 That doesn't say much for storms is the Western Caribbean where the further north movement is beyond the 120 hr mark. Whatever, man. Believe whatever you want. The GFS is much better as both a tropical model and synoptic model than it was at this time last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Obviously we all want a landfall near the TX/MX border, best chance for rain locally if it isn't too tightly wound. But for consistency with runs and with ensembles, the Euro seems the most confident solution. I agree, Ed. If I had a gun to my head, I'd probably put out a forecast somewhere between Tampico and Veracruz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Whatever, man. Believe whatever you want. The GFS is much better as both a tropical model and synoptic model than it was at this time last year. Well, we'll see a mano a mano with the Euro in about a week. It will be interesting, assuming something forms (which seems more likely than not at this stage with apparently near universal model support) to see which is closer, since the solutions are different. Of course, from almost a week out the border versus the far SW BoC isn't that huge. And one system isn't enough to be definitive on anything. But it will be interesting. Won't post the GFS ensemble means from Alan's site since Adam says it isn't the most modern GFS package in the reduced resolution perturbations, but they seem to support the Euro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 That doesn't say much for storms is the Western Caribbean where the further north movement is beyond the 120 hr mark. warm/high height bias of the new GFS extends into at least Day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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