wxmx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 It seems to bend the 500 mb ridge over North America to make its own path, I looped it as well, and it seems funky to me it would be heading NNW... But I'm not expert. This and your previous post. I'm more confident of a big, mean ridge over most of the south than of a cyclone in the BoC (not mutually exclusive, ofcourse)... what I mean is that if anything forms/gets to the BoC around the 28/29th, there's a high probability it'll go to MX. But like you said, it's still way out there and stuff happens in that time range... or in the most pure mww style, something might also not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 anyone know why the Gulf of Guinea is well below normal? does that impact the cape verde season at all? you gotta think that type of gradient would maybe juice up the african tropical waves more later in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The GFS, Canadian and Euro continue to advertise a storm in the Western Basin via their 00Z output. As Jorge mentioned above, MX would seem to be the favored landfall region of any cyclone as a very strong Upper Ridge develops across the Southern Plains. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 This and your previous post. I'm more confident of a big, mean ridge over most of the south than of a cyclone in the BoC (not mutually exclusive, ofcourse)... what I mean is that if anything forms/gets to the BoC around the 28/29th, there's a high probability it'll go to MX. But like you said, it's still way out there and stuff happens in that time range... or in the most pure mww style, something might also not happen. We can celebrate the Alex chase anniversary together in Tamaulipas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 I'm gettin' a little tingly seeing this slow, vague convergence of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 We can celebrate the Alex chase anniversary together in Tamaulipas. Just looking around South of Tamaulipas and maybe limited by limited time over water. Assuming a cyclone forms. But I remain 1/8th glass full. Working backwards from 850 mb vorticity, looks like preexisting vorticity from near Panama to the Caribbean coast of Colombia and Venezeula maybe gets kickstarted by the blob approaching from the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 MIMIC TPW suggests the wave approaching the Windward Islands may well be the culprit that the models have been sniffing out. It does appear the Upper Ridge will be well anchored across the Southern Plains and TX and any tropical mischief that may spin up would be Mexico bound. Hopefully the GFS is correct in breaking down the Ridge yet again and some deep tropical moisture can stream further N and enhance rain chances once again... HPC: USED A 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE THEREAFTER TO ACCOUNT FOR ISSUES NEAR THE WEST COAST AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/5 OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS A POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVE LOW MOVING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SOLUTION THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN HINTED AT YESTERDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The Euro Seasonal forecast is out and does not bode well for those that have been expecting increased EC activity. The Western Basin continues to look like the hot bed this season via that long range model solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The 12Z GFS continues to advertise some possible tropical mischief as we head into the weekend in the Western Basin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Interest level may increase just a touch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 In my humble and amateur opinion, there is a question, and then a subset to that question. Does a tropical cyclone form? Some model support, a semi-reasonable MJO phase looking at some guidance. Then, how far North does it form. Because I don't see it gaining too much latitude once it has formed, based on what I'm seeing from reliable 500 mb guidance. If it is going to have sufficient time over water to gain strength to be chaseable by Josh and Jorge it is going to have to exit the Yucatan North of 20º, based on Tampico being just a shade North of 22º. Just my opinion. EDIT TO ADD Just saw Steve's pictures and a system closer to the border does increase my interest, as Dolly provided rain here in HOU, and my lawn needs all the rain it can get and I don't trust a county wide firework ban to keep some idiot somewhere from firing off a leftover Roman Candle from New Years. Just going to nibble on the fish, not going to get hooked yet based on a single GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The 12Z Canadian suggests a storm taking shape near the Yucatan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Each of the years featuring this SST anomaly pattern around the USA during June had landfalling hurricanes later in the season. June 2011 so far June composite Is that anything more than a coincidence? SSTA's don't steer hurricanes...maybe there is a relation to broader patterns, but I'm not sure much can be made of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Is that anything more than a coincidence? SSTA's don't steer hurricanes...maybe there is a relation to broader patterns, but I'm not sure much can be made of it. Well, a broad + SST anomaly indicates a strong ridge in place. This ridge can act to block TCs from recurving, and hit the US instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The longer range Canadian suggest a cyclone making lanfall S of Tampico, MX fwiw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Interest level may increase just a touch... It's a biggie ... I saw this movie last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 It's a biggie ... I saw this movie last year The Euro say Veracruz and weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Euro is way far South, which probably explains limited strength depicted because it wouldn't have much time crossing the BoC. But if we can get a compromise track to Tampico, and a chase, I'll be entertained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Well, a broad + SST anomaly indicates a strong ridge in place. This ridge can act to block TCs from recurving, and hit the US instead. the image below shows a ridge? i'm confused It's related to the broader pattern which has been associated with US landfalling hurricanes later in the season. landfalling hurricanes happen almost every year...when there are sometimes 15-20 per decade, every SSTA pattern can be associated with a landfalling hurricane...especially when you just say "In the US, sometime later in the season" I think there is less to this than you two are making of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I was talking about those specific analogs.Some seasons have patterns that are revealed earlier than others the favor landfalls. Sure, but when landfalls are really common nearly every SST pattern could be said to have a correlation. In all the years outside of those analogs there were dozens of landfalls too...without that particular SSTA pattern being in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The SST pattern is indicative of broader set up over those years.The years with other landfalls had to have an upper pattern in place that steered the hurricanes in to the US coastline.Years like last year had a trough ridge pattern that was off enough to allow the storms to recurve. how do you know it is indicative of anything? 80% of years feature landfalls. it could be just noise, especially when you have such a small sample size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The Euro say Veracruz and weak. Euro is way far South, which probably explains limited strength depicted because it wouldn't have much time crossing the BoC. But if we can get a compromise track to Tampico, and a chase, I'll be entertained. And the reason is this: 12z GFS vs 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Brownsville has noticed the models: A COUPLE OF THE MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN TO PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IF IT PANS OUT. HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST TO WAIT FOR MORE MODEL RUNS AND TO SEE SOME RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I wish the Great DR posted more often... ... USED A 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF COMPROMISE THEREAFTER TO ACCOUNT FOR ISSUES NEAR THE WEST COAST AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/5 OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS A POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVE LOW MOVING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SOLUTION THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN HINTED AT YESTERDAY. THE 17Z COORDINATION CALL WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER LED TO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THE DEPICTION OF THIS FEATURE. ... ROTH/RAUSCH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Its early, but at this juncture, any TC would be surpressed pretty deep into the BoC, judging by how how well the Euro ensembles support the Euro and the GFS ensembles seem to show a decent ridge over the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The models have the attention of various NWS offices around the Western Gulf. New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, and Corpus Christi have followed the lead of Brownsville making mention of the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 The models have the attention of various NWS offices around the Western Gulf. New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, and Corpus Christi have followed the lead of Brownsville making mention of the possibilities. CRP... GFS BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR DOORSTEP BY THE END OF THEPERIOD...BUT IS AN OUTLIER IN DOING SO...WITH ALL OTHER MODELS HOLDING MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. WILL GO CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. Lets hope for the GFS coup... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 The models have the attention of various NWS offices around the Western Gulf. New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, and Corpus Christi have followed the lead of Brownsville making mention of the possibilities. Tingles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 Wtf is that? That's one big, fat mamacane! P.S. The GFS is showing an annular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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