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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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It seems to bend the 500 mb ridge over North America to make its own path, I looped it as well, and it seems funky to me it would be heading NNW...

But I'm not expert.

This and your previous post. I'm more confident of a big, mean ridge over most of the south than of a cyclone in the BoC (not mutually exclusive, ofcourse)... what I mean is that if anything forms/gets to the BoC around the 28/29th, there's a high probability it'll go to MX. But like you said, it's still way out there and stuff happens in that time range... or in the most pure mww style, something might also not happen.

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The GFS, Canadian and Euro continue to advertise a storm in the Western Basin via their 00Z output. As Jorge mentioned above, MX would seem to be the favored landfall region of any cyclone as a very strong Upper Ridge develops across the Southern Plains. We will see.

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This and your previous post. I'm more confident of a big, mean ridge over most of the south than of a cyclone in the BoC (not mutually exclusive, ofcourse)... what I mean is that if anything forms/gets to the BoC around the 28/29th, there's a high probability it'll go to MX. But like you said, it's still way out there and stuff happens in that time range... or in the most pure mww style, something might also not happen.

We can celebrate the Alex chase anniversary together in Tamaulipas. :D

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We can celebrate the Alex chase anniversary together in Tamaulipas. :D

Just looking around South of Tamaulipas and maybe limited by limited time over water. Assuming a cyclone forms.

But I remain 1/8th glass full.

Working backwards from 850 mb vorticity, looks like preexisting vorticity from near Panama to the Caribbean coast of Colombia and Venezeula maybe gets kickstarted by the blob approaching from the East.

post-138-0-92811000-1308741264.jpg

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MIMIC TPW suggests the wave approaching the Windward Islands may well be the culprit that the models have been sniffing out. It does appear the Upper Ridge will be well anchored across the Southern Plains and TX and any tropical mischief that may spin up would be Mexico bound. Hopefully the GFS is correct in breaking down the Ridge yet again and some deep tropical moisture can stream further N and enhance rain chances once again...

HPC:

USED A 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF

COMPROMISE THEREAFTER TO ACCOUNT FOR ISSUES NEAR THE WEST COAST

AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/5 OF THE 00Z

GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS A POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVE LOW

MOVING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND

THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SOLUTION THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN

HINTED AT YESTERDAY.

latest72hrs.gif

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The Euro Seasonal forecast is out and does not bode well for those that have been expecting increased EC activity. The Western Basin continues to look like the hot bed this season via that long range model solution...

post-32-0-23787300-1308758106.gif

post-32-0-24630000-1308758121.gif

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In my humble and amateur opinion, there is a question, and then a subset to that question. Does a tropical cyclone form? Some model support, a semi-reasonable MJO phase looking at some guidance.

Then, how far North does it form. Because I don't see it gaining too much latitude once it has formed, based on what I'm seeing from reliable 500 mb guidance.

If it is going to have sufficient time over water to gain strength to be chaseable by Josh and Jorge it is going to have to exit the Yucatan North of 20º, based on Tampico being just a shade North of 22º.

Just my opinion.

EDIT TO ADD

Just saw Steve's pictures and a system closer to the border does increase my interest, as Dolly provided rain here in HOU, and my lawn needs all the rain it can get and I don't trust a county wide firework ban to keep some idiot somewhere from firing off a leftover Roman Candle from New Years. Just going to nibble on the fish, not going to get hooked yet based on a single GFS run.

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Each of the years featuring this SST anomaly pattern around the USA during June had landfalling hurricanes later in the season.

June 2011 so far

June composite

Is that anything more than a coincidence? SSTA's don't steer hurricanes...maybe there is a relation to broader patterns, but I'm not sure much can be made of it.

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Is that anything more than a coincidence? SSTA's don't steer hurricanes...maybe there is a relation to broader patterns, but I'm not sure much can be made of it.

Well, a broad + SST anomaly indicates a strong ridge in place. This ridge can act to block TCs from recurving, and hit the US instead.

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Well, a broad + SST anomaly indicates a strong ridge in place. This ridge can act to block TCs from recurving, and hit the US instead.

the image below shows a ridge? i'm confused

It's related to the broader pattern which has been associated with US landfalling hurricanes later in the season.

landfalling hurricanes happen almost every year...when there are sometimes 15-20 per decade, every SSTA pattern can be associated with a landfalling hurricane...especially when you just say "In the US, sometime later in the season"

I think there is less to this than you two are making of it.

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I was talking about those specific analogs.Some seasons have patterns that are revealed earlier than others the favor landfalls.

Sure, but when landfalls are really common nearly every SST pattern could be said to have a correlation. In all the years outside of those analogs there were dozens of landfalls too...without that particular SSTA pattern being in place.

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The SST pattern is indicative of broader set up over those years.The years with other landfalls had to have an upper pattern in place

that steered the hurricanes in to the US coastline.Years like last year had a trough ridge pattern that was off enough to allow

the storms to recurve.

how do you know it is indicative of anything? 80% of years feature landfalls. it could be just noise, especially when you have such a small sample size.

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The Euro say Veracruz and weak. :P

Euro is way far South, which probably explains limited strength depicted because it wouldn't have much time crossing the BoC.

But if we can get a compromise track to Tampico, and a chase, I'll be entertained.

And the reason is this:

12z GFS

TYIsR.gif

vs 12z Euro

aBmZ0.gif

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Brownsville has noticed the models:

A COUPLE OF THE MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER AREA OF

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME DURING

THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT RAIN TO

PORTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS IF IT PANS OUT. HOWEVER...FOR NOW HAVE

KEPT A DRY FORECAST TO WAIT FOR MORE MODEL RUNS AND TO SEE SOME

RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

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I wish the Great DR posted more often...

...

USED A 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF

COMPROMISE THEREAFTER TO ACCOUNT FOR ISSUES NEAR THE WEST COAST

AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE BETWEEN 1/4 AND 1/5 OF THE 00Z

GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS A POTENTIALLY CONVECTIVE LOW

MOVING FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND

THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...A SOLUTION THE 12Z GFS/12Z CANADIAN

HINTED AT YESTERDAY. THE 17Z COORDINATION CALL WITH THE NATIONAL

HURRICANE CENTER LED TO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES WITH THE DEPICTION OF

THIS FEATURE.

...

ROTH/RAUSCH

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The models have the attention of various NWS offices around the Western Gulf. New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, and Corpus Christi have followed the lead of Brownsville making mention of the possibilities.

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The models have the attention of various NWS offices around the Western Gulf. New Orleans, Houston/Galveston, and Corpus Christi have followed the lead of Brownsville making mention of the possibilities.

CRP...

GFS BRINGS TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR DOORSTEP BY THE END OF THE

PERIOD...BUT IS AN OUTLIER IN DOING SO...WITH ALL OTHER MODELS

HOLDING MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. WILL GO CLOSER TO PERSISTENCE

TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

Lets hope for the GFS coup...

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