wxmx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Using data from 1966-2010, I expected to see the probability lower for <40W cyclones...and it did lower to 13.2% ... but for cyclones <50W it did lower even more to 11.4% ...and that's because Bonnie '98, Floyd '99 and Lili 2002 are the only hurricanes to have hit the US and had a genesis in the tropics between 40 and 50W out of 42 total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 By the way... Here's a consolidated product of mine and Jorge's research from a while back-- a complete list of known Cape Verde cyclones that made landfall in the USA as major (Cat-3+) 'canes, including categories for states experiencing max impact and landfall intensities: 1893 #6 Sea Islands - GA3, SC3 (954 mb/100 kt) 1893 #9 --- - SC3 (955 mb/105 kt) 1899 #3 San Ciriaco, Outer Banks - NC3 (945 mb/105 kt) 1915 #2 Galveston - TX4(N) (940 mb/115 kt) 1928 #4 Lake Okeechobee - FL4(SE) (929 mb/125 kt) 1938 #4 "Long Island Express" - NY3, CT3, RI3, MA2 (940 mb/105 kt) 1947 #4 Fort Lauderdale - FL4(SE) (940 mb/115 kt) 1960 Donna - FL4(SW) (930 mb/115 kt) 1979 Frederic - MS3, AL3 (946 mb/115 kt*) 1980 Allen - TX3(S) (945 mb/100 kt) 1989 Hugo - SC4 (934 mb/120 kt) 1992 Andrew - FL5(SE) (922 mb/145 kt) 1996 Fran - NC3 (954 mb/100 kt) 2004 Ivan - AL3, FL3(NW) (946 mb/105 kt) Re: the above list, some notes: * We used the NHC's official landfall list: http://www.aoml.noaa...Hurricanes.html * The period from 1931 thru 1979 has not been reanalyzed and does not have official landfall intensity estimates-- therefore, the listed landfall wind speeds are from the latest reputable research papers but are not yet officially approved values. This part of the table is colored. * I excluded hurricanes from this period that will probably get downgraded below Cat 3 in reanalysis, based on papers by reputable researchers-- i.e., Chris Landsea, etc. Examples would be Connie 1955 and Gloria 1985. * The best-track wind speed for Frederic 1979 at landfall (115 kt) would make it a Cat 4-- however, it's listed as Cat 3. This discrepancy needs to be resolved in reanalysis. Based on my own analysis of that cyclone, I'm sure it was not a Cat 4, but probably a low-to-midrange Cat 3. * I'm sure there were probably at least a few more examples from the pre-satellite era-- i.e., cyclones that actually did form E of 40W but weren't detected until later and therefore don't show up in HURDAT until they're W of 40W. You know, I'd bet it would make for a really great TV Show for the Weather Channel to go back and re-analyze hurricanes and tornadoes from yesteryear by talking with the people who survived it, going through newspapers and websites about it... yeah, that would be really interesting. One hurricane or tornado per show... make it a series of 12. Could last a few seasons if not more if done right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 ^^ These 19th Century/early 20th Century storms were reliably described as having closed circulations by ships which didn't have electronic communications to report the information immediately back East of 40ºW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 ^^ These 19th Century/early 20th Century storms were reliably described as having closed circulations by ships which didn't have electronic communications to report the information immediately back East of 40ºW? Reliably described as having gale force winds mostly... there are few instances of < 35kts winds at the tracks' starting points (only 3 from 1851-1919, and all from the XX century) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 ...and that's because Bonnie '98, Floyd '99 and Lili 2002 are the only hurricanes to have hit the US and had a genesis in the tropics between 40 and 50W out of 42 total Wow-- what a weird and random factoid. OK, so for those of you who are dying for a 'cane to hit the USA this year-- especially a major-- don't be getting your hopes up for cyclones that form between 40W and 50W! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 You know, I'd bet it would make for a really great TV Show for the Weather Channel to go back and re-analyze hurricanes and tornadoes from yesteryear by talking with the people who survived it, going through newspapers and websites about it... yeah, that would be really interesting. One hurricane or tornado per show... make it a series of 12. Could last a few seasons if not more if done right. It wouldn't have any value in terms of the official reanalysis effort-- the goal of which is to accurately estimate the max wind speeds of historic cyclones by piecing together existing data and applying contemporary analysis methodology-- but it would be cool from a human-interest perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Understood. I Just dont like to look past 80-120hrs in any model. Why? That range seems very useful for sniffing out a coming pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Why? That range seems very useful for sniffing out a coming pattern change. Because there is a lack of understanding in terms of what to look for and how to interpret the information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Why? That range seems very useful for sniffing out a coming pattern change. Completely agreed! What it does show is that the model is sniffing out a more favorable pattern next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Completely agreed! Stop sniffing each others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 Stop sniffing each others Get help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Why? That range seems very useful for sniffing out a coming pattern change. Agree with you on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 Stop sniffing each others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted June 20, 2011 Share Posted June 20, 2011 LSU gif loop (enhanced) http://www.esl.lsu.edu/home/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 that shows the strong nw flow over the east coast and west atlantic that has dominated june. that has to change. http://www.accuweather.com/us/radar/r1h/korf/radar.asp?play=true just a radar shot, but it shows once again the powerful nw flow that shows little sign of relaxing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Globals seems somewhat less enthusiastic about an end of June/beginning of July storm. I'm not completely dismissive yet. And not being Rainstorm, nothing suggests anything less than an active ASO, and analog years are interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 that shows the strong nw flow over the east coast and west atlantic that has dominated june. that has to change. http://www.accuweath...r.asp?play=true just a radar shot, but it shows once again the powerful nw flow that shows little sign of relaxing. change for what? WXMX has posted that both landfalls and numbers are higher during -NAO regimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Globals seems somewhat less enthusiastic about an end of June/beginning of July storm. I'm not completely dismissive yet. And not being Rainstorm, nothing suggests anything less than an active ASO, and analog years are interesting. im certainly not arguing numbers wont be above normal this season, im simply saying the pattern has to change for landfall numbers to be higher than last season.right now we basically have a western trough, south central ridge, and eastern trough. many forecasts in the preseason, in cluding those from JB and DT, indicated we would see high pressure dominate the west atlantic . should that materialize then landfalls will follow.will the trough retograde west so that a southerly flow dominates the east coast? thats the key. that would also open up florida and the eastern and central gom to landfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 im certainly not arguing numbers wont be above normal this season, im simply saying the pattern has to change for landfall numbers to be higher than last season.right now we basically have a western trough, south central ridge, and eastern trough. many forecasts in the preseason, in cluding those from JB and DT, indicated we would see high pressure dominate the west atlantic . should that materialize then landfalls will follow. Nice, very quick post edit there rainstorm. It's obvious that you will add nothing positive to the conversation unless it's EC in nature. I questioned you about that IMY stance last season and you responded that it was your only interest hence my joking about your insurance issue. Yesterday you were questioned again by am19psu about that very issue. I just wanted to make that very clear on June 21, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 im certainly not arguing numbers wont be above normal this season, im simply saying the pattern has to change for landfall numbers to be higher than last season.right now we basically have a western trough, south central ridge, and eastern trough. many forecasts in the preseason, in cluding those from JB and DT, indicated we would see high pressure dominate the west atlantic . should that materialize then landfalls will follow.will the trough retograde west so that a southerly flow dominates the east coast? thats the key. that would also open up florida and the eastern and central gom to landfalls. Do you have anything graphical that shows a ridge where you want it during a past hurricane season?? What you are wanting seems VERY unlikely in regards to the normal Azores high that sets up this time of year. You dont have to have the silly ridge you keep talking about to have landfalls on the east coast. In fact I would say what you keep referring to, historically has little or no noticeable impact on landfalling tropical cyclones along the east coast. Is there really any need to keep hammering on some crazy ridge, that you are infatuated with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Do you have anything graphical that shows a ridge where you want it during a past hurricane season?? What you are wanting seems VERY unlikely in regards to the normal Azores high that sets up this time of year. You dont have to have the silly ridge you keep talking about to have landfalls on the east coast. In fact I would say what you keep referring to, historically has little or no noticeable impact on landfalling tropical cyclones along the east coast. Is there really any need to keep hammering on some crazy ridge, that you are infatuated with? i dont think anyone would argue that an east coast landfall is promoted with a north or nw flow aloft over the east coast. clearly, the preferred pattern is a west atlantic ridge with a trough about 500 miles further west than it is now. that would steer storms into the coast, not away. there are numerous examples of this. floyd is a super example. the ridge steered in west to just off florida, then it got caught up in the southerly flow between the ridge and trough west of the appalacians. to srains point. the far greater number of US landfalls occur from close in development, including the gulf coast. close in development is near impossible with this current pattern. its far more likely with a strong high locked in over and east of new england. high pressure to the north facilitates lower pressure to the south. we have had a couple of possibilities so far this june in the west carib, but when i saw the overall pattern i felt it was unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 i dont think anyone would argue that an east coast landfall is promoted with a north or nw flow aloft over the east coast. I understand that, but you seem to think this "Western Atlantic ridge" is the only way to achieve that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Do we really need to have this silly back-and-forth again and again? Let's move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Do we really need to have this silly back-and-forth again and again? Let's move on. No, we don't. I warned about it last week. Restrictions are forthcoming if it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 The GFS is suggesting more favorable conditions re: MJO in the days ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHLChase54 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Hey what's up? I am new here...this hurricane season feels dead right now! (unless your in the pacific) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Hey what's up? I am new here...this hurricane season feels dead right now! (unless your in the pacific) It's not "dead"-- it's normal. Oftentimes, the first cyclone doesn't form until July or even August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHLChase54 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 It's not "dead"-- it's normal. Oftentimes, the first cyclone doesn't form until July or even August. Oh ok..well I'm looking forward to tracking some of these storms. Last year was ok..the only real storm for me was Bill and it was a dud! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Oh ok..well I'm looking forward to tracking some of these storms. Last year was ok..the only real storm for me was Bill and it was a dud! Bill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Bill? I assume he means two years ago, not last year. NHLChase can sit back, relax, read, and learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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