Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II

[wxmx]

Pictures help me relate to prior seasons...

This should help then...the top JJA -AO since 1950

[Srain]

Interesting that 2008 just keep rearing it's head. Ella of 1958 would help with the drought....

[rainstorm]

This should help then...the top JJA -AO since 1950

if thats the pattern for this season you are showing there the 2011 season will be rather disappointing. several prominent forecasters have been adamant that a western atlantic ridge will be present for cane season. im still waiting for the neg NAO to break. what did 2010 end up looking like?2005 or 04?

[Cyclonicjunkie]

if thats the pattern for this season you are showing there the 2011 season will be rather disappointing. several prominent forecasters have been adamant that a western atlantic ridge will be present for cane season. im still waiting for the neg NAO to break. what did 2010 end up looking like?2005 or 04?

You can have a ridge in the western Atlantic, with a -NAO. I have been reading your posts in which you keep wanting to see a western Atlantic ridge, where exactly in the western Atlantic are you talking about?

[matthewweatherwatcher]

You can have a ridge in the western Atlantic, with a -NAO. I have been reading your posts in which you keep wanting to see a western Atlantic ridge, where exactly in the western Atlantic are you talking about?

I'd went a nice bermuda high driving the storms into florida then into the gulf of mexico. No weakness at 60 or 70 west like last season driving them out to sea.

[rainstorm]

You can have a ridge in the western Atlantic, with a -NAO. I have been reading your posts in which you keep wanting to see a western Atlantic ridge, where exactly in the western Atlantic are you talking about?

preferably right where low pressure is shown on wxmx's map. the bermuda high was absent last season and is absent so far this season as we continue with a strong flow from the nw over the east coast. that must change. i know JB, LC, AND DT have all said a west atlantic ridge would dominate this season. the perfect place for it would be centered over and off the ne coast.

[matthewweatherwatcher]

preferably right where low pressure is shown on wxmx's map. the bermuda high was absent last season and is absent so far this season as we continue with a strong flow from the nw over the east coast. that must change. i know JB, LC, AND DT have all said a west atlantic ridge would dominate this season. the perfect place for it would be centered over and off the ne coast.

current surface

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_ten_000m.gif

shows high centered at 60-75 west, but with a weakness near 75 west caused by a surface trough.

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_000m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_024m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_036m.gif

500 millibars trough coming off northeast/southeast canada. So from the surface to 500 millibars there is a weakness.

I'd believe that this season is going to be a lot like last season, but with slightly stronger bermuda ridging. It is all by chance anyways. Also more of a chance of a system getting pulled northward within the western Caribbean and gulf then last season.

[CUmet]

The next Kelvin wave is pretty close to the Date Line right now and is expected to cross the longitude of the western Caribbean around June 25th or so. The June 26-July 1 or so period seems to be a period of enhanced TC genesis probability relative to climatology, which is consistent with the GFS and ECMWF showing some signs with the wave over the Western Carib/GOM during this time. Given that it's relatively long range, and neither have been consistently aggressive with it yet, I wouldn't rate the chances of a TC developing during this period as being very high at all. However, it will be higher than it has been over the past couple weeks, and the MJO is trending more favorable as well.

[am19psu]

I'd really like to know where this "2010 sucked" meme started. It's utterly ridiculous. It was merely "bad luck" that the US didn't get hit by any hurricanes. Alex and Earl were well within the margin of error. I just don't see how anyone can complain about season that was 20/11/4.

[am19psu]

I'd went a nice bermuda high driving the storms into florida then into the gulf of mexico. No weakness at 60 or 70 west like last season driving them out to sea.

Josh, what is the statistic about recurving Cape Verde hurricanes? It's something ridiculous like 9 out of 10. It's like everyone expects every season to be 2005, when everything tracked into the Gulf.

[HurricaneJosh]

The next Kelvin wave is pretty close to the Date Line right now and is expected to cross the longitude of the western Caribbean around June 25th or so. The June 26-July 1 or so period seems to be a period of enhanced TC genesis probability relative to climatology, which is consistent with the GFS and ECMWF showing some signs with the wave over the Western Carib/GOM during this time. Given that it's relatively long range, and neither have been consistently aggressive with it yet, I wouldn't rate the chances of a TC developing during this period as being very high at all. However, it will be higher than it has been over the past couple weeks, and the MJO is trending more favorable as well.

Cool-- thanks for this. And nice to see you stopping in!

I'd really like to know where this "2010 sucked" meme started. It's utterly ridiculous. It was merely "bad luck" that the US didn't get hit by any hurricanes. Alex and Earl were well within the margin of error. I just don't see how anyone can complain about season that was 20/11/4.

It is a pure IMBY-driven concept. Mexicans certainly didn't consider it a crappy season.

Josh, what is the statistic about recurving Cape Verde hurricanes? It's something ridiculous like 9 out of 10. It's like everyone expects every season to be 2005, when everything tracked into the Gulf.

I don't have exact stats-- Jorge might-- but the bottom line is that there just aren't many examples of CV cyclones that landfalled in the USA as majors. For all the hype, it really doesn't happen a whole lot. Here's a list of Cape Verde* systems since 1950 that made landfall in the USA as major (Cat-3+) 'canes:

Donna 1960

Frederic 1979

Allen 1980

Hugo 1989

Andrew 1992

Fran 1996

Ivan 2004

(I did not include Connie 1955 and Gloria 1985, as reanalysis will probably demote both to below Cat 3 for their USA landfalls.)

One thing I should point out, however: the few actual examples are some of our country's most spectacular and memorable hurricane disasters.

* There's no official definition, but I define a CV cyclone as one that develops a closed circulation in the tropical NATL E of 40W.

[rainstorm]

I'd really like to know where this "2010 sucked" meme started. It's utterly ridiculous. It was merely "bad luck" that the US didn't get hit by any hurricanes. Alex and Earl were well within the margin of error. I just don't see how anyone can complain about season that was 20/11/4.

i think you can relate it to winter. if dca, bos, and nyc are warm and snowless it would be extremely hard to make them think it was a great winter because london england got hit by blizzard after blizzard. 2010 was a season most hurricane lovers hope doesnt repeat this season. i dont think luck had anything to do with last season. a persistent west atlantic trough kept everything well offshore and if anything did attempt to hit the US like bonnie, shear ripped it to shreads. give me a 1989 or 1999 or 2008 or 2003 over 2010 any day of the week.

[am19psu]

i think you can relate it to winter. if dca, bos, and nyc are warm and snowless it would be extremely hard to make them think it was a great winter because london england got hit by blizzard after blizzard. 2010 was a season most hurricane lovers hope doesnt repeat this season. i dont think luck had anything to do with last season. a persistent west atlantic trough kept everything well offshore and if anything did attempt to hit the US like bonnie, shear ripped it to shreads. give me a 1989 or 1999 or 2008 or 2003 over 2010 any day of the week.

As long as you admit it's a completely IMBY driven concept, I guess.

Luck had plenty to do with it. 60 mi farther west and a major hurricane plows into the Atlantic Coast. 60 mi farther north and the deepest Cat 2 in history makes landfall in BRO. That's luck.

[rainstorm]

Cool-- thanks for this. And nice to see you stopping in!

It is a pure IMBY-driven concept. Mexicans certainly didn't consider it a crappy season.

I don't have exact stats-- Jorge might-- but the bottom line is that there just aren't many examples of CV cyclones that landfalled in the USA as majors. For all the hype, it really doesn't happen a whole lot. Here's a list of Cape Verde* systems since 1950 that made landfall in the USA as major (Cat-3+) 'canes:

Donna 1960

Frederic 1979

Allen 1980

Hugo 1989

Andrew 1992

Fran 1996

Ivan 2004

(I did not include Connie 1955 and Gloria 1985, as reanalysis will probably demote both to below Cat 3 for their USA landfalls.)

One thing I should point out, however: the few actual examples are some of our country's most spectacular and memorable hurricane disasters.

* There's no official definition, but I define a CV cyclone as one that develops a closed circulation in the tropical NATL E of 40W.

sounds like a good CV definition.

[HurricaneJosh]

By the way... Here's a consolidated product of mine and Jorge's research from a while back-- a complete list of known Cape Verde cyclones that made landfall in the USA as major (Cat-3+) 'canes, including categories for states experiencing max impact and landfall intensities:

1893 #6 Sea Islands - GA3, SC3 (954 mb/100 kt)

1893 #9 --- - SC3 (955 mb/105 kt)

1899 #3 San Ciriaco, Outer Banks - NC3 (945 mb/105 kt)

1915 #2 Galveston - TX4(N) (940 mb/115 kt)

1928 #4 Lake Okeechobee - FL4(SE) (929 mb/125 kt)

1938 #4 "Long Island Express" - NY3, CT3, RI3, MA2 (940 mb/105 kt)

1947 #4 Fort Lauderdale - FL4(SE) (940 mb/115 kt)

1960 Donna - FL4(SW) (930 mb/115 kt)

1979 Frederic - MS3, AL3 (946 mb/115 kt*)

1980 Allen - TX3(S) (945 mb/100 kt)

1989 Hugo - SC4 (934 mb/120 kt)

1992 Andrew - FL5(SE) (922 mb/145 kt)

1996 Fran - NC3 (954 mb/100 kt)

2004 Ivan - AL3, FL3(NW) (946 mb/105 kt)

Re: the above list, some notes:

* We used the NHC's official landfall list: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/All_U.S._Hurricanes.html

* The period from 1931 thru 1979 has not been reanalyzed and does not have official landfall intensity estimates-- therefore, the listed landfall wind speeds are from the latest reputable research papers but are not yet officially approved values. This part of the table is colored.

* I excluded hurricanes from this period that will probably get downgraded below Cat 3 in reanalysis, based on papers by reputable researchers-- i.e., Chris Landsea, etc. Examples would be Connie 1955 and Gloria 1985.

* The best-track wind speed for Frederic 1979 at landfall (115 kt) would make it a Cat 4-- however, it's listed as Cat 3. This discrepancy needs to be resolved in reanalysis. Based on my own analysis of that cyclone, I'm sure it was not a Cat 4, but probably a low-to-midrange Cat 3.

* I'm sure there were probably at least a few more examples from the pre-satellite era-- i.e., cyclones that actually did form E of 40W but weren't detected until later and therefore don't show up in HURDAT until they're W of 40W.

[rainstorm]

As long as you admit it's a completely IMBY driven concept, I guess.

Luck had plenty to do with it. 60 mi farther west and a major hurricane plows into the Atlantic Coast. 60 mi farther north and the deepest Cat 2 in history makes landfall in BRO. That's luck.

that certainly has something to do with it, no doubt. just look at the number of tropical posts last season compared to a much less active season like 2008 or 2003. even with huge storm numbers last season its clear to see interest in last season was sorely lacking compared to the less active seasons of 08 or 03.

[Ed Lizard]

Josh, what is the statistic about recurving Cape Verde hurricanes? It's something ridiculous like 9 out of 10. It's like everyone expects every season to be 2005, when everything tracked into the Gulf.

The Gulf storms of 2005 weren't, as a rule, true Cape Verde storms, even Emily started around 45º

I should probably ask the local stats guy on the forum about all time Texas/Louisiana hits that were declared depressions before 40ºW. Not many, I bet.

Not a surprise. Ike was an exception that challenged the rule, a TD East of 40ºW

The beauty of Cape Verde storms, even though almost all miss, is days of satellite viewing enjoyment.

Maybe because I had a girlfriend named Cindy in 1999, but that was a Cape Verde fish storm beautiful to behold

[Srain]

I certainly don't want to be accused of IMYism, but HGX had an interesting last line in the morning AFD:

WEEKEND LOOKING DRIER AS UPPER

RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER N TX PER ECMWF BUT WHAT MAY BE THE FIRST

TROPICAL SYSTEM IN JUNE TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN

CARIBBEAN.

[HurricaneJosh]

I certainly don't want to be accused of IMYism, but HGX had an interesting last line in the morning AFD:

WEEKEND LOOKING DRIER AS UPPER

RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS OVER N TX PER ECMWF BUT WHAT MAY BE THE FIRST

TROPICAL SYSTEM IN JUNE TRACKS INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN

CARIBBEAN.

Yumminess.

[Ed Lizard]

Yumminess.

Got time to chance, but it isn't exactly weather p0rn...

[Srain]

Got time to chance, but it isn't exactly weather p0rn...

Nor would you expect it to be in late June. Consensus is growing in model world and remember the first chase for Dolly (08) wasn't until July.

[Ed Lizard]

Nor would you expect it to be in late June. Consensus is growing in model world and remember the first chase for Dolly (08) wasn't until July.

Back in April or May, I said June and July were the longest months, so close, yet so far, with just enough chance of a fairly rare early season storm that you had to pay attention to the watched pot that wouldn't boil. Every now and then, an Alex, a Dolly or a Dennis, a 2003 Claudette, it does boil, so you can't turn away, but usually, the pot just sits there.

I still look forward to August...

[wxmx]

Josh, what is the statistic about recurving Cape Verde hurricanes? It's something ridiculous like 9 out of 10. It's like everyone expects every season to be 2005, when everything tracked into the Gulf.

15% of the Cape Verde cyclones (which peaked at least as a TS) have hit the US as a hurricane (29/184) (1851-2010)... but that's biased high IMO, since there are probably many unaccounted for cyclones from before the satellite era, almost all (or all) of them that never hit the US. I'm using Josh's E of 40W criteria (below 23N also)

Interestingly it falls to 14% if I change the longitude criteria to 50W (40/281)

[turtlehurricane]

Completely disagree. I wouldn't take a 9-10 day forecast verbatim, but there is definitely some value in looking at the progs in that time frame. The most recent upgrades to the Euro and GFS have shown a much stronger capability of picking up on TC genesis in the outer periods.

9-10 days is basically climo. TCs will spin up in the model in climatologically favored areas, since conditions will likely be favorable in the model in such areas at that range. However, at that range it is damn near impossible to model the precursor disturbance that leads to TC genesis, and therefore any forecasts of TCs at that range don't mean much.

[k***]

9-10 days is basically climo. TCs will spin up in the model in climatologically favored areas, since conditions will likely be favorable in the model in such areas at that range. However, at that range it is damn near impossible to model the precursor disturbance that leads to TC genesis, and therefore any forecasts of TCs at that range don't mean much.

Have you ever been employed as a forecaster?

[am19psu]

9-10 days is basically climo. TCs will spin up in the model in climatologically favored areas, since conditions will likely be favorable in the model in such areas at that range. However, at that range it is damn near impossible to model the precursor disturbance that leads to TC genesis, and therefore any forecasts of TCs at that range don't mean much.

You really need to spend more time medium range forecasting. This whole post is wrong.

[turtlehurricane]

You really need to spend more time medium range forecasting. This whole post is wrong.

I know very well how the GFS works.

[turtlehurricane]

Have you ever been employed as a forecaster?

No, just as a researcher who deals with TC modeling for a few years now.

[am19psu]

I know very well how the GFS works.

No, you clearly do not. If you did, you would recognize how much better the GFS has become at sniffing out medium range tropical cyclone threats. There's been quite a bit of online discussion about its increased prowess in the medium range since its upgrade last summer. You're also ignoring the ECMWF ensemble, which has skill at forecasting TC genesis and MJO evolution up to 15 days in advance. Didn't you watch how the ECMWF ensemble performed last summer during PREDICT?

[HurricaneJosh]

15% of the Cape Verde cyclones (which peaked at least as a TS) have hit the US as a hurricane (29/184) (1851-2010)... but that's biased high IMO, since there are probably many unaccounted for cyclones from before the satellite era, almost all (or all) of them that never hit the US. I'm using Josh's E of 40W criteria (below 23N also)

Just to add to this: as mentioned above, my criteria are forming a closed circulation 1) E of 40W and 2) in the tropical NATL (so below ~23.5N).

Interestingly it falls to 14% if I change the longitude criteria to 50W (40/281)

OK, weird!