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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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The 12Z GFS remains very insistent on developing a TD/TS and moving it N into the Lower TX Coast near the King Ranch. We will see.

If it waits until next weekend or early the following week, like the GFS is now showing, it's got a chance. I'd have thought the better place for development at the end of the month is in the Western Caribbean with an expected longwave EC trough, though.

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If it waits until next weekend or early the following week, like the GFS is now showing, it's got a chance. I'd have thought the better place for development at the end of the month is in the Western Caribbean with an expected longwave EC trough, though.

Interesting that the Canadian has finally joined in as well. Perhaps a bit of credence to what the GFS has been sniffing for days.

post-32-0-22654600-1308332293.jpg

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Interesting that the Canadian has finally joined in as well. Perhaps a bit of credence to what the GFS has been sniffing for days.

Yep. But this is no longer due to the Kelvin wave moving through this weekend like we originally thought. This is going to be some sort of large scale pattern change like the UKMet has been sniffing out in its MJO progs.

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Even though I'm the most optimistic guy in the world, I'm a touch skeptical. One of cyclone development right on the coastline. I'd think downsloping off the interior highlands wouldn't be good for any development.

And replaying the 850 mb vort from the FSU page, this looks to get sucked up from the Pacific by the approaching trough. I just don't know. It would seem to be dependent on a complete failure of the East Pac invest to develop.

I just don't know.

850vort12.png

850vort15.png

850vort25.png

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Never under estimate a monsoonal trough and a EPAC Hurricane throwing moisture over the Sierra Madre Del Sur. Ya never know.;)

There is no EastPac hurricane on the GFS, it gets sucked into the Gulf to develop its fantasy-cane.

Well, that might be harsh. Allison was a Pacific wave sucked into the Gulf, and because I am an optimistic guy, maybe we'll some kind of development as a weakness aloft pulls tropical moisture and the remnant vorticity of the EastPac invest up this way.

Just checked, some of the ensembles have the general idea but farther South. I won't decide how optimistic to be, quarter full or half full, from the Euro, but I still am waiting to see it.

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I think 92E will go and concentrate the low level vorticity the GFS uses to spin something up. Ergo, I don't think anything organized & tropical happens in the next week.

Not all gloom and doom for SETX, however, as Euro shows decided split in the ridge Wednesday and Thursday. And its only June.

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Even though I'm the most optimistic guy in the world, I'm a touch skeptical. One of cyclone development right on the coastline. I'd think downsloping off the interior highlands wouldn't be good for any development.

And replaying the 850 mb vort from the FSU page, this looks to get sucked up from the Pacific by the approaching trough. I just don't know.

You don't have to look too far back to find an analog.

Tropical Cyclone Report

Tropical Storm Hermine

(AL102010)

5-9 September 201

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Depression Eleven-E moved northward across the

Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas early on 4 September, and degenerated into a remnant

low over the high terrain. The middle-level circulation accompanied by the weak surface low

continued northward and moved over the southern Bay of Campeche later that day. Once over

water, deep convection began to form near the low and the thunderstorm activity became

organized with some cyclonically curved bands. It is estimated that a tropical depression formed

at 1800 UTC 5 September when the system was in the southern Bay of Campeche.

zo6f6e.gif

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Corpus mentioning the GFS -

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 349 PM CDT FRI JUN 17 2011LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

GFS IS TRYING TO SPIN SOMETHING UP OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD (MODEL DOES THIS AT TIMES) WHILE OTHER NOTABLE MODELS (ECMWF...CANADIAN...NOGAPS) DO NOT DO THIS (HPC PLOTS NOT SHOWING CLOSED LOW EITHER). ECMWF DOES SHOW A CUT OFF UPPER LOW/COL OVER AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY (MOISTURE IS STILL GOOD ON FRIDAY). WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION (AT LEAST OUT THAT FAR)...

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Nice, it trended toward my idea instead! :whistle: I'm just messing with you. Yeah, I didn't like 6/20, I thought it was too early.

My prediction for the first named storm will occur in the 6/28-7/2 window with 6/30 as my best guess. If it doesn't happen then, then perhaps we'll have to wait until the last days of July, although I'm not too sure on that yet. It's a tough year for long range forecasting (when's it ever easy, haha).

Yep. But this is no longer due to the Kelvin wave moving through this weekend like we originally thought. This is going to be some sort of large scale pattern change like the UKMet has been sniffing out in its MJO progs.

:popcorn:

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There is literally no skill at that range. 5 days is the farthest one should ever look, though 2-3 days is a much more credible range.

Completely disagree. I wouldn't take a 9-10 day forecast verbatim, but there is definitely some value in looking at the progs in that time frame. The most recent upgrades to the Euro and GFS have shown a much stronger capability of picking up on TC genesis in the outer periods.

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Completely disagree. I wouldn't take a 9-10 day forecast verbatim, but there is definitely some value in looking at the progs in that time frame. The most recent upgrades to the Euro and GFS have shown a much stronger capability of picking up on TC genesis in the outer periods.

Partially disagree. It seems like we;ve been ~10 days away from a Gulf or Caribbean TC about every other GFS run since late May. A fews days ago several GFS runs were suggesting a Gulf TC mid/late week and that isn't going to happen with Beatriz on the other side of Mexico.

I'm not worried, Its June.

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Partially disagree. It seems like we;ve been ~10 days away from a Gulf or Caribbean TC about every other GFS run since late May. A fews days ago several GFS runs were suggesting a Gulf TC mid/late week and that isn't going to happen with Beatriz on the other side of Mexico.

No, they haven't. There were two specific threats that the GFS was bullish on - 94L and the upcoming tropical wave moving into the BoC. The FAR for the GFS is much, much less since the upgrade last summer.

The GFS runs from last week were never suggesting a strong TC and no one was particularly excited about those runs because it was always unlikely. You're still going to get rain out of it due to the tropical wave interacting with the front.

You still have to be able to interpret the data to use the models effectively. Ripping and running on any one particular solution just doesn't work. If you know what you are looking for, the 9-10 day model forecasts are quite helpful.

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Looks like we're entering a prolongued period of -AO. Models have been trying to break it in the long range, just to be delayed further away each day. -AO during summer correlates to warmer than normal temps in the Sern half of the CONUS/higher heights. OTOH, the tropics might benefit of lower heights/pressures on the surface, but with lesser chance of TWs/cyclones to enter the mid latitudes.

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Looks like we're entering a prolongued period of -AO. Models have been trying to break it in the long range, just to be delayed further away each day. -AO during summer correlates to warmer than normal temps in the Sern half of the CONUS/higher heights. OTOH, the tropics might benefit of lower heights/pressures on the surface, but with lesser chance of TWs/cyclones to enter the mid latitudes.

Pictures help me relate to prior seasons...

aoindex_19502009.png

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