Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II

[turtlehurricane]

There may actually be a good amount of dust in the atmosphere of the western GOMEX from the deserts to the west, but most of the signal probably is just dry air.

[Srain]

I also suspect that recent fires in Mexico/Belize may well be contributing to this. Smoke was clearly evident on visible imagery last week.

[wxmx]

Looks like another super Kelvin wave will be moving the through the Atlantic early next week. There doesn't look to be much of a pre-existing disturbance this time (unlike 94L), so it might not amount to much, but I'd say June 20-22 is the next good shot at Atlantic genesis.

Beyond that, it's tough to say. Ensemble and statistical MJO forecasts are pretty blah. I'd thought the current wave over the Maritime Continent/South China Sea would make it to the Western Hemisphere by the end of the month, but the models are just killing it off instead. Otherwise, it looks to me like we'll just have to get lucky with the synoptic pattern to get something going.

Agree with your dates. The Ukie forecasts still supports late month activity, the Euro MJO model hasn't updated in a while. The GFS MJO sucks, although the op GFS supports the Ukie. The CFS also supports an uptick in activity around the 20th.

[Ed Lizard]

Not quite two weeks from a Louisiana storm per 0Z GFS, but we're always about 2 weeks from a GFS storm in the Gulf. So its a non-starter, but its isn't the middle of June, so no worries or season cancel junk or anything like that.

Now, I know ocean currents transporting warm water are probably as important as direct insolation, but I'm a little surprised after months of abnormally dry weather, we don't have more oceanic heat content in the Gulf and around Florida.

2010

2011

[wi_fl_wx]

Now, I know ocean currents transporting warm water are probably as important as direct insolation, but I'm a little surprised after months of abnormally dry weather, we don't have more oceanic heat content in the Gulf and around Florida.

Perhaps the strong trade winds over the last few weeks were to blame? It was dry here in FL but during that time the easterlies were cranking, likely causing overturning. However, it does look cooler across the rest of the Atlantic so maybe someone has an alternate explanation?

[bluewave]

You can see the dry air showing up around the Gulf on the water vapor imagery.

[Srain]

The Upper Ridge has been very present over MX and TX for a while now. If the models are correct, there may well be a change ahead as we head into the later half of June.

[turtlehurricane]

Only a month and a half till the real ramp up begins. I've always thought it was kind of misleading that Jun/Jul/Nov were considered part of the hurricane season, since there is much less activity than Aug/Sep/Oct.

[wxmx]

Perhaps the strong trade winds over the last few weeks were to blame? It was dry here in FL but during that time the easterlies were cranking, likely causing overturning. However, it does look cooler across the rest of the Atlantic so maybe someone has an alternate explanation?

Well, you're comparing it to 2010, which is the warmest MDR on record. 2011 is still way ahead above normal on SSTs. Compare it to 2009, and you'll see. Direct insolation changes between years are usually minimal compared to wind profiles... even ocean currents make more of a difference.

Edit: I'll do it

[icebreaker5221]

Oh, duh! I didn't look closely at the latitude/longitude markers and thought this was some remnant of 94L, which I hadn't been following.

Thanks.

Now we just need you to apologize for being a tight core snob!

[HurricaneJosh]

Now we just need you to apologize for being a tight core snob!

Apology not forthcoming!

[Doorman]

Nasty SAL image

Natural color

http://oiswww.eumets...testImages.html

[matthewweatherwatcher]

Outside chance of .5c at 3.4 by July, August, Sept. 2006 started out a cool neutral in January-May to only to become a .3c to .5c by August-Sept and the nino developed in Oct and Nov. That hurt 2006 greatly and if this is right this season could go the same way. 2005 from January-May was a warm enso to only go a negative cool enso as the season went on...Yes the year was a neutral over all, but we're doing the opposite now, which is more like 2006 with the marginal nino conditions falling in the heart of the cane season. We must watch this closely as we're already at .0c within 3.4.

I wouldn't forecast more then 14/8/3 this season. If it does somehow stay below .3c and the effects of a positive neutral pattern don't start generate shear then we could be higher. I agree with wxmx in many of his points, but if it does you can forget a good season.

[Eyewall2005]

Nasty SAL image

Natural color

http://oiswww.eumets...testImages.html

Perfectly normal for this time of the year, Infact SAL outbreaks tend to peak during late june and into the month of july.

[Srain]

Looking at the long range Eurosip issued today, lower pressures and a bit above regarding precip suggests an active Caribbean and Gulf during August, September and October...

[matthewweatherwatcher]

Perfectly normal for this time of the year, Infact SAL outbreaks tend to peak during late june and into the month of july.

Agreed with you on that. The SAL doesn't really start getting better until early August. We can still have huge events clear into late August.

[Normandy]

Looking at the long range Eurosip issued today, lower pressures and a bit above regarding precip suggests an active Caribbean and Gulf during August, September and October...

Would suggest more possible US Activity no?

[Bryan Wood]

Would suggest more possible US Activity no?

It would seem to favor storms forming closer to the U.S. Steering winds during active storms are the real unknown factor. We had quite a few form in the western Caribbean last year and the steering winds pushed almost all of them into Mexico & Belize.

[wxmx]

An MJO wave will move thru the basin around the 20th or so, according to the models. Not sure about the strength of the wave, but around that date would be my guess for possible cyclogenesis.

The Ukie has been modeling an even stronger wave into phase 1 past June 20th. The Euro and GFS have been trending toward that solution, though they are weaker and into phase 2. I think I was a little fast with the "around the 20th or so", but no more than 3-4 days. The GFS has been showing a wetter pattern in the BoC and W GOM past the 20th, and a weak cyclone off the SE coast of the US.

[Ed Lizard]

Because its June, not really derailing the thread, I thought I'd introduce the remote chance of a 93L type disturbance of polar origin.

A frontal low drifting away from the main jet, Southwards towards warmer water and lighter upper winds...

Long shot, sure, but HGX's last major, 28 years ago, was a system of non-tropical origin...

[flwxwatcher45]

[Srain]

I'd keep an eye on the Bay of Campeche area later next week and on into the end of June. A pattern change from a very persistent dry Upper Ridge to very deep tropical moisture pooling in the Western Basin appears to be on the horizon. There does appear to be an uptick in potential activity as a Kelvin wave and an MJO pulse moves into the region. A little 'home grown' spin up in that region would not be surprising as we head to toward the end of the month, IMO. At the very least, perhaps some badly needed rainfall for a very drought parched Gulf region is ahead.

[am19psu]

I'd keep an eye on the Bay of Campeche area later next week and on into the end of June. A pattern change from a very persistent dry Upper Ridge to very deep tropical moisture pooling in the Western Basin appears to be on the horizon. There does appear to be an uptick in potential activity as a Kelvin wave and an MJO pulse moves into the region. A little 'home grown' spin up in that region would not be surprising as we head to toward the end of the month, IMO. At the very least, perhaps some badly needed rainfall for a very drought parched Gulf region is ahead.

I like your chances for rain more than I like the chances of a TC down there.

[Ed Lizard]

June is supposed to be slow. No worries. No season cancels. No fears about the NAO or Siberian heat waves.

Eurosip has happy things in store, and I can't help but smell Florida oranges!

[OKpowdah]

season cancel

[kwt]

Yeah I wouldn't be too bothered about an average start (NO reason to describe it as a slow start yet...) and as we've seen in several seasons in recent history, sometimes things take till August to explode into life...people would hardly describe seasons such as 1998/1999/2004 as boring seasons despite not really getting going till August.

I was never too comfortable with the idea of an intense start...but to be fair even 2005 only had one system at this stage so plenty of time for that quick start some have been keen on...myself, I think we will be waiting till August for something substainial, though I think we'll be pretty much bang on the average climo curve till then...so no *slow* start IMO.

[HM]

The Ukie has been modeling an even stronger wave into phase 1 past June 20th. The Euro and GFS have been trending toward that solution, though they are weaker and into phase 2. I think I was a little fast with the "around the 20th or so", but no more than 3-4 days. The GFS has been showing a wetter pattern in the BoC and W GOM past the 20th, and a weak cyclone off the SE coast of the US.

Nice, it trended toward my idea instead! I'm just messing with you. Yeah, I didn't like 6/20, I thought it was too early.

My prediction for the first named storm will occur in the 6/28-7/2 window with 6/30 as my best guess. If it doesn't happen then, then perhaps we'll have to wait until the last days of July, although I'm not too sure on that yet. It's a tough year for long range forecasting (when's it ever easy, haha).

[toad strangler]

Yeah I wouldn't be too bothered about an average start (NO reason to describe it as a slow start yet...) and as we've seen in several seasons in recent history, sometimes things take till August to explode into life...people would hardly describe seasons such as 1998/1999/2004 as boring seasons despite not really getting going till August.

I was never too comfortable with the idea of an intense start...but to be fair even 2005 only had one system at this stage so plenty of time for that quick start some have been keen on...myself, I think we will be waiting till August for something substainial, though I think we'll be pretty much bang on the average climo curve till then...so no *slow* start IMO.

It takes just UNO!

[phil882]

back to the present... looks like we have a decent tropical wave out in the Atlantic in the low latitudes currently.

Seems like the gfs is catching on to this feature and shows a little bit of vorticity spilling into the Eastern Caribbean in 3 days.

Not really super impressive on the models, but there is a weak anticyclone that might be building over the Eastern Caribbean by this point, so if any of the convection we see currently survives to this point, it might bear watching.

[Srain]

Looking further E, a rather robust convective complex splashed down in the E Atlantic overnight and the are even hints of a spin. While it is too soon to be looking for any Cape Verde systems, it is good to see that activity continues to roll off Africa and TPW suggests moisture is increasing across the Basin as we head toward the end of June...