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Atlantic Tropical Action 2011 - Part II


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Checking in from notorious Cape Fear, NC., home of the northernmost Cat 4 in the modern record, and Grand Central Station for the current cycle; I'm ready to rock and roll!

During the month of May our small city of 100,000 is always busy preparing for each upcoming hurricane season. Crews from Progress Energy have been making their rounds trimming branches most likely to threaten their overhead power lines while local contractor crews have been removing debris from our urban creeks to lessen the chance of flooding.

In my apartment complex, for the first time ever, a strange-looking machine was recently seen "attacking" the many scrub trees that line a creek fifty yards from my front door (a creek that destroyed dozens of first floor apartments in the neighborhood two years ago.) Orange in color, it looked like your typical "loader" type tractor machine...except it had a large. rectangular box type thingy where a shovel is normally seen; a box that acted like the mower part of a large commercial grass cutter. This odd contraption moved along the creek bed "mowing" the trees on the shoreline.

Another addition this year is a gasoline powered pump, ready on a moment's notice to move water out of our frog pond (a retainment pond that has so darned many frogs, it sounds like a flying saucer is parked out there during the wee hours.)

We're ready.....bring on the storms!

:bike:

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Hey, dudes--

It's after 12 midnight where I am-- the 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season has started!!1!

Woo-hoo!

:sun:B):):thumbsup::)B):sun:

I wonder what yumminess we'll see this year. I have so many fantasies. What are yours? :wub:

I hope that a nice TS makes it up here and gives me some rain and TS force winds. Good luck everybody and stay safe this season!

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I'm surprised this hasn't been posted yet:

Gulf Hurricanes Weaken Before Landfall

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/hurricanes/2011-05-31-hurricanes-gulf-of-mexico-study_n.htm?csp=34weather

Looks like there is true evidence. Exactly what I thought.

Wilma 2005

Charley 2004

Alicia 1983

Frederic 1979

Eloise 1975

Celia 1970

Camille 1969

Betsy 1965

Hilda 1964

Etc.

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I wouldn't consider TX landfalls in the discussion. Ike, Celia, Claudette, Alicia are all examples of hurricanes that intensified upon landfall. In fact many hurricanes don't fall apart at ALL when hitting TX. Its not the same situation as the N GOM. Also feel the same goes for W Coast Florida landfalls, as many times the trough enhances canes (Charley, Wilma, etc).

I do think the landfall zone between the Big Bend and Central LA is relevant though.

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I wouldn't consider TX landfalls in the discussion. Ike, Celia, Claudette, Alicia are all examples of hurricanes that intensified upon landfall. In fact hurricanes don't fall apart at ALL when hitting TX. Its not the same situation as the N GOM.

The article said "Gulf Coast". It did not distinguish between different parts.

If it did, several on the list are still relevant. The point is that no one can say with certainty that even a N-Gulf-Coast landfalling major will be weakening.

P.S. Many TX majors have weakened up to landfall. Rita 2005 was falling apart as it came ashore at the TX/LA state line, directly impacting both states. Bret 1999 was weakening at landfall in S TX. Beulah 1967 was weakening at landfall in S TX. Carla 1961 was apparently weakening at landfall on the C TX coast.

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The article should definitely specify the region, because otherwise it grossly misrepresents their study. It would be like saying E Coast hurricanes weaken substantially before landfall, when in fact that really only applies NC and north. Rita is the only example of a significant hurricane really falling apart as it approached TX that I can think of.

*EDIT* Just saw your post, thanks for pulling up the examples. Even still that ratio is far less than NGOM canes, where many more have fallen apart as opposed to those that deepened.

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I'm not entirely sure why this is big news to Scorpion. The 5 degrees of latitude between Miami and New Orleans make a difference, just like it the 10 degrees between Miami and Cape Hatteras makes a bigger difference. As storms gain latitude, they're more likely to get hit by vertical shear. On top of that, there is no Gulf Stream along the N GOM and there is often an EML to the west just waiting to get sucked into the system. Of course storms are more likely to weaken as they reach the Northern Gulf Coast. But that doesn't mean all storms are going to, just that it is more likely, and we've seen plenty of examples to the contrary, not the least of which is one of 2 Cat 5s to make landfall in the US.

I don't know why we go through this every year.

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The article should definitely specify the region, because otherwise it grossly misrepresents their study. It would be like saying E Coast hurricanes weaken substantially before landfall, when in fact that really only applies NC and north. Rita is the only example of a significant hurricane really falling apart as it approached TX that I can think of.

See my post above. I named several hurricanes that weakened substantially as they hit TX.

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The article should definitely specify the region, because otherwise it grossly misrepresents their study. It would be like saying E Coast hurricanes weaken substantially before landfall, when in fact that really only applies NC and north. Rita is the only example of a significant hurricane really falling apart as it approached TX that I can think of.

*EDIT* Just saw your post, thanks for pulling up the examples. Even still that ratio is far less than NGOM canes, where many more have fallen apart as opposed to those that deepened.

Sure, but I will always stridently disagree with this mythology Re: ensured pre-landfall weakening of majors hitting LA, MS, AL, and NW FL. Are they more likely to be weakening? Yes. Will they for sure? No:

Frederic 1979

Eloise 1975

Camille 1969

Betsy 1965

Hilda 1964

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Sure, but I will always stridently disagree with this mythology Re: ensured pre-landfall weakening of majors hitting LA, MS, AL, and NW FL. Are they more likely to be weakening? Yes. Will they for sure? No:

Frederic 1979

Eloise 1975

Camille 1969

Betsy 1965

Hilda 1964

Wiki says Beulah moved into MX before hitting S TX (Not sure if Wiki is a trusted source of course).

I do agree that we shouldn't necessarily outright ignore the possibility of one deepening all the way up until landfall, but I do think it has to be considered when forecasting. And at the very least I feel that if a Katrina type situation occurs again (Where is is a 5 in the middle of the Gulf), that it should at the very least be forecasted to weaken to a Cat 4 before hitting land. I feel its incredibly hard for the N GOM to sustain a Cat 5 all the way up until landfall (and while Camille would be precedent for this situation, I have doubts regarding it being a 5, but thats been rehashed over and over and doesn't need to be talked about yet again).

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Wiki says Beulah moved into MX before hitting S TX (Not sure if Wiki is a trusted source of course).

Beulah's center crossed the coast a few mi S of the TX/MX border, moving NNW immediately into TX. It was so close to the border it's considered a direct impact for TX. It weakened dramatically prior to landfall. I've been doing some research on it, and I believe the landfall intensity was probably around ~105 kt.

I do agree that we shouldn't necessarily outright ignore the possibility of one deepening all the way up until landfall, but I do think it has to be considered when forecasting. And at the very least I feel that if a Katrina type situation occurs again (Where is is a 5 in the middle of the Gulf), that it should at the very least be forecasted to weaken to a Cat 4 before hitting land. I feel its incredibly hard for the N GOM to sustain a Cat 5 all the way up until landfall (and while Camille would be precedent for this situation, I have doubts regarding it being a 5, but thats been rehashed over and over and doesn't need to be talked about yet again).

I think the forecasts should factor in the synoptics-- not just climatological history.

A good case study of a major really strengthening substantially up to landfall in this region is Eloise 1975. It came ashore on the FL Panhandle as Cat 3, and based on my calculations (using pressure, RMW, speed of motion, intensity trend, and latitude), it was at the high end of Cat 3-- like 110 kt. Not only that-- it moved very fast as it came ashore. I'm glad no one just assumed that one was going to fall apart!

Re: Camille... I've actually been researching that one, too-- applying the reanalysis methodologies that the NHC's team has been using-- and based on my calculations, I get a low-end Cat 5-- something like Andrew.

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^Thats interesting regarding Camille. I'm sure your methodologies are sound as you are def a hardcore tropical nerd (I'm a softcore one I guess lol). I just find it incredibly hard to believe Camille was as intense as Andrew given that lack of wind damage (well, lack of extreme wind damage) in MS at ground zero. With Andrew the evidence was everywhere, with Camille for me its a bit harder to find. Nice info on Beulah

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Blob off the EC has been classified...:arrowhead:

BEGIN

NHC_ATCF

invest_al932011.invest

FSTDA

R

U

040

010

0000

201106010037

NONE

NOTIFY=ATRP

END

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011060100, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932011

AL, 93, 2011060100, , BEST, 0, 330N, 732W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

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^Thats interesting regarding Camille. I'm sure your methodologies are sound as you are def a hardcore tropical nerd (I'm a softcore one I guess lol). I just find it incredibly hard to believe Camille was as intense as Andrew given that lack of wind damage (well, lack of extreme wind damage) in MS at ground zero. With Andrew the evidence was everywhere, with Camille for me its a bit harder to find. Nice info on Beulah

Thanks for your faith in me. :wub:

I should disclose that I am in the process of "testing" the methodology, to make sure I'm applying it correctly. am19psu is working with me on this project-- it's a joint effort. So my calculations could be wrong. It will be interesting to see what the real reanalysis dudes say about Camille when they get to it.

I agree that wind-damage pics should be factored in-- but keep in mind that the max winds covered a very, very narrow section of the coast, near Pass Christian. A lot of the pics people see are from Biloxi or Gulfport, which were outside of the RMW and did not get the max winds. Images of Pass Christian, within a couple of blocks of the water, are what's needed, and there aren't that many. I need to do some more searching. A good indicator is of course the trees-- are they stripped or not? Etc.

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