HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Hey, dudes-- It's after 12 midnight where I am-- the 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season has started!!1! Woo-hoo! I wonder what yumminess we'll see this year. I have so many fantasies. What are yours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Hey, dudes-- I's after 12 midnight where I am-- the 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season has started!!1! Woo-hoo! I wonder what yumminess we'll see this year. I have so many fantasies. What are yours? I don't think it works that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I can't wait to see a good hurricane season this year on line with 1999, 2004, 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I don't think it works that way. Meh, it'll be here in 90 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Checking in from notorious Cape Fear, NC., home of the northernmost Cat 4 in the modern record, and Grand Central Station for the current cycle; I'm ready to rock and roll! During the month of May our small city of 100,000 is always busy preparing for each upcoming hurricane season. Crews from Progress Energy have been making their rounds trimming branches most likely to threaten their overhead power lines while local contractor crews have been removing debris from our urban creeks to lessen the chance of flooding. In my apartment complex, for the first time ever, a strange-looking machine was recently seen "attacking" the many scrub trees that line a creek fifty yards from my front door (a creek that destroyed dozens of first floor apartments in the neighborhood two years ago.) Orange in color, it looked like your typical "loader" type tractor machine...except it had a large. rectangular box type thingy where a shovel is normally seen; a box that acted like the mower part of a large commercial grass cutter. This odd contraption moved along the creek bed "mowing" the trees on the shoreline. Another addition this year is a gasoline powered pump, ready on a moment's notice to move water out of our frog pond (a retainment pond that has so darned many frogs, it sounds like a flying saucer is parked out there during the wee hours.) We're ready.....bring on the storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Hey, dudes-- It's after 12 midnight where I am-- the 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season has started!!1! Woo-hoo! I wonder what yumminess we'll see this year. I have so many fantasies. What are yours? Cyclone Monica pt.2 out in the middle of the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2011053118&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr with low pressure once again dominating the west atlantic with a powerful neg nao i doubt much will occur in the carib. perhaps a sloppy td. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I'm surprised this hasn't been posted yet: Gulf Hurricanes Weaken Before Landfall http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/hurricanes/2011-05-31-hurricanes-gulf-of-mexico-study_n.htm?csp=34weather Looks like there is true evidence. Exactly what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Hey, dudes-- It's after 12 midnight where I am-- the 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season has started!!1! Woo-hoo! I wonder what yumminess we'll see this year. I have so many fantasies. What are yours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm just hoping for some rain from a nice low-caliber system. Dry as a bone here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm 10 minutes late, but Happy 2011 Atlantic Hurricane season everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 That MCV moving SW looks pretty interesting no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm surprised this hasn't been posted yet: Gulf Hurricanes Weaken Before Landfall http://www.usatoday....m?csp=34weather Looks like there is true evidence. Exactly what I thought. Increasing wind shear near the continental flow let alone EWRC. Oh, and those of us that experienced Alicia would also disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Hey, dudes-- It's after 12 midnight where I am-- the 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season has started!!1! Woo-hoo! I wonder what yumminess we'll see this year. I have so many fantasies. What are yours? I hope that a nice TS makes it up here and gives me some rain and TS force winds. Good luck everybody and stay safe this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm surprised this hasn't been posted yet: Gulf Hurricanes Weaken Before Landfall http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/hurricanes/2011-05-31-hurricanes-gulf-of-mexico-study_n.htm?csp=34weather Looks like there is true evidence. Exactly what I thought. Wilma 2005 Charley 2004 Alicia 1983 Frederic 1979 Eloise 1975 Celia 1970 Camille 1969 Betsy 1965 Hilda 1964 Etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I wouldn't consider TX landfalls in the discussion. Ike, Celia, Claudette, Alicia are all examples of hurricanes that intensified upon landfall. In fact many hurricanes don't fall apart at ALL when hitting TX. Its not the same situation as the N GOM. Also feel the same goes for W Coast Florida landfalls, as many times the trough enhances canes (Charley, Wilma, etc). I do think the landfall zone between the Big Bend and Central LA is relevant though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 I wouldn't consider TX landfalls in the discussion. Ike, Celia, Claudette, Alicia are all examples of hurricanes that intensified upon landfall. In fact hurricanes don't fall apart at ALL when hitting TX. Its not the same situation as the N GOM. The article said "Gulf Coast". It did not distinguish between different parts. If it did, several on the list are still relevant. The point is that no one can say with certainty that even a N-Gulf-Coast landfalling major will be weakening. P.S. Many TX majors have weakened up to landfall. Rita 2005 was falling apart as it came ashore at the TX/LA state line, directly impacting both states. Bret 1999 was weakening at landfall in S TX. Beulah 1967 was weakening at landfall in S TX. Carla 1961 was apparently weakening at landfall on the C TX coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The article should definitely specify the region, because otherwise it grossly misrepresents their study. It would be like saying E Coast hurricanes weaken substantially before landfall, when in fact that really only applies NC and north. Rita is the only example of a significant hurricane really falling apart as it approached TX that I can think of. *EDIT* Just saw your post, thanks for pulling up the examples. Even still that ratio is far less than NGOM canes, where many more have fallen apart as opposed to those that deepened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm not entirely sure why this is big news to Scorpion. The 5 degrees of latitude between Miami and New Orleans make a difference, just like it the 10 degrees between Miami and Cape Hatteras makes a bigger difference. As storms gain latitude, they're more likely to get hit by vertical shear. On top of that, there is no Gulf Stream along the N GOM and there is often an EML to the west just waiting to get sucked into the system. Of course storms are more likely to weaken as they reach the Northern Gulf Coast. But that doesn't mean all storms are going to, just that it is more likely, and we've seen plenty of examples to the contrary, not the least of which is one of 2 Cat 5s to make landfall in the US. I don't know why we go through this every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 The article should definitely specify the region, because otherwise it grossly misrepresents their study. It would be like saying E Coast hurricanes weaken substantially before landfall, when in fact that really only applies NC and north. Rita is the only example of a significant hurricane really falling apart as it approached TX that I can think of. See my post above. I named several hurricanes that weakened substantially as they hit TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 The article should definitely specify the region, because otherwise it grossly misrepresents their study. It would be like saying E Coast hurricanes weaken substantially before landfall, when in fact that really only applies NC and north. Rita is the only example of a significant hurricane really falling apart as it approached TX that I can think of. *EDIT* Just saw your post, thanks for pulling up the examples. Even still that ratio is far less than NGOM canes, where many more have fallen apart as opposed to those that deepened. Sure, but I will always stridently disagree with this mythology Re: ensured pre-landfall weakening of majors hitting LA, MS, AL, and NW FL. Are they more likely to be weakening? Yes. Will they for sure? No: Frederic 1979 Eloise 1975 Camille 1969 Betsy 1965 Hilda 1964 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Sure, but I will always stridently disagree with this mythology Re: ensured pre-landfall weakening of majors hitting LA, MS, AL, and NW FL. Are they more likely to be weakening? Yes. Will they for sure? No: Frederic 1979 Eloise 1975 Camille 1969 Betsy 1965 Hilda 1964 Wiki says Beulah moved into MX before hitting S TX (Not sure if Wiki is a trusted source of course). I do agree that we shouldn't necessarily outright ignore the possibility of one deepening all the way up until landfall, but I do think it has to be considered when forecasting. And at the very least I feel that if a Katrina type situation occurs again (Where is is a 5 in the middle of the Gulf), that it should at the very least be forecasted to weaken to a Cat 4 before hitting land. I feel its incredibly hard for the N GOM to sustain a Cat 5 all the way up until landfall (and while Camille would be precedent for this situation, I have doubts regarding it being a 5, but thats been rehashed over and over and doesn't need to be talked about yet again). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wiki says Beulah moved into MX before hitting S TX (Not sure if Wiki is a trusted source of course). Beulah's center crossed the coast a few mi S of the TX/MX border, moving NNW immediately into TX. It was so close to the border it's considered a direct impact for TX. It weakened dramatically prior to landfall. I've been doing some research on it, and I believe the landfall intensity was probably around ~105 kt. I do agree that we shouldn't necessarily outright ignore the possibility of one deepening all the way up until landfall, but I do think it has to be considered when forecasting. And at the very least I feel that if a Katrina type situation occurs again (Where is is a 5 in the middle of the Gulf), that it should at the very least be forecasted to weaken to a Cat 4 before hitting land. I feel its incredibly hard for the N GOM to sustain a Cat 5 all the way up until landfall (and while Camille would be precedent for this situation, I have doubts regarding it being a 5, but thats been rehashed over and over and doesn't need to be talked about yet again). I think the forecasts should factor in the synoptics-- not just climatological history. A good case study of a major really strengthening substantially up to landfall in this region is Eloise 1975. It came ashore on the FL Panhandle as Cat 3, and based on my calculations (using pressure, RMW, speed of motion, intensity trend, and latitude), it was at the high end of Cat 3-- like 110 kt. Not only that-- it moved very fast as it came ashore. I'm glad no one just assumed that one was going to fall apart! Re: Camille... I've actually been researching that one, too-- applying the reanalysis methodologies that the NHC's team has been using-- and based on my calculations, I get a low-end Cat 5-- something like Andrew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 ^Thats interesting regarding Camille. I'm sure your methodologies are sound as you are def a hardcore tropical nerd (I'm a softcore one I guess lol). I just find it incredibly hard to believe Camille was as intense as Andrew given that lack of wind damage (well, lack of extreme wind damage) in MS at ground zero. With Andrew the evidence was everywhere, with Camille for me its a bit harder to find. Nice info on Beulah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm totally on the bandwagon with the southeast offshore blobicane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Blob off the EC has been classified... BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al932011.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201106010037 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 93, 2011, DB, O, 2011060100, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL932011 AL, 93, 2011060100, , BEST, 0, 330N, 732W, 25, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 ^Thats interesting regarding Camille. I'm sure your methodologies are sound as you are def a hardcore tropical nerd (I'm a softcore one I guess lol). I just find it incredibly hard to believe Camille was as intense as Andrew given that lack of wind damage (well, lack of extreme wind damage) in MS at ground zero. With Andrew the evidence was everywhere, with Camille for me its a bit harder to find. Nice info on Beulah Thanks for your faith in me. I should disclose that I am in the process of "testing" the methodology, to make sure I'm applying it correctly. am19psu is working with me on this project-- it's a joint effort. So my calculations could be wrong. It will be interesting to see what the real reanalysis dudes say about Camille when they get to it. I agree that wind-damage pics should be factored in-- but keep in mind that the max winds covered a very, very narrow section of the coast, near Pass Christian. A lot of the pics people see are from Biloxi or Gulfport, which were outside of the RMW and did not get the max winds. Images of Pass Christian, within a couple of blocks of the water, are what's needed, and there aren't that many. I need to do some more searching. A good indicator is of course the trees-- are they stripped or not? Etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Lol we have 93L off the East Coast. That was unexpected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclonicjunkie Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Lol we have 93L off the East Coast. That was unexpected! I know its not under the best conditions, or the best spot for development but that little puppy looks impressive to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 BAMM (which agrees with the GFS) shows it only remaining over water for the next 24 hours. ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/11060100AL9311_ships.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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