Ed Lizard Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 No apparent West winds obvious in low cloud field South of the center, but I think it may be trying. Fairly fast motion not helping. I give this a 10% chance of closing off an LLC and being an STD before Tamaulipas, and since NHC, while canx both of today's flights, has one scheduled for tomorrow, a 2.5% chance this will officially be designated a (S)TC before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 No apparent West winds obvious in low cloud field South of the center, but I think it may be trying. Fairly fast motion not helping. I give this a 10% chance of closing off an LLC and being an STD before Tamaulipas, and since NHC, while canx both of today's flights, has one scheduled for tomorrow, a 2.5% chance this will officially be designated a (S)TC before landfall. While wind shear is not a problem (around 5-10 knots over the invest), I think the abundance of dry air aloft will likely prevent any consistent deep thunderstorm activity necessary for future cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Not that much longer until the vortex is west of it's starting position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Not that much longer until the vortex is west of it's starting position. As soon as this thing's done for good, someone's got to post the full sat loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 As soon as this thing's done for good, someone's got to post the full sat loop. Yeah,it will be cool to see.This was the only time that I can remember such a well formed MCV/MCS moving through NYC Metro during the early morning hours near the end of May. SPECI KLGA 301044Z 29020G30KT 3SM +TSRA FEW012 SCT022 OVC044CB 22/19 A3006 RMK AO2 PK WND 30030/1038 TSB44RAB33 OCNL LGTIC W-N AND OHD TS W-N AND OHD MOV E P0006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Front loaded ... but as said previously, environment is not very moist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 93L will bring some clouds as far North as BRO today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 It's headed into Mexico tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Airplane canx. 0% chance, no matter what, of being an official STC or TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Airplane canx. 0% chance, no matter what, of being an official STC or TC. Still lame, but some thunderstorms are blowing up over the center. Westerly shear is evident, but should decrease a bit as it approaches the coast. It's better organized and probably closed, but not sure if it can sustain the thunderstorms for an extended period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Near 0% chance. Maybe a bit harsh, it looks better than ever attm... it certainly looks closed, conditions are far from ideal, but not destructive either Vis Sat loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 There's a definite LLC, but it's now naked *yawn* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 One could argue that 93L is a TD, however lame it is, but whatever. At least it may help bring some relief from the 7 month long drought here (<1.8") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 its making landfall now..i was hoping it would end up where it started but it doesn't look that wa now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Not my house or anywhere near it, 93L seems to have been enough to get isolated sea breeze showers into Deep South Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Eye very close to Guadalupe Victoria ...and yes, that's the real center of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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