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Invest 93L Forms From Long-lived MCV


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No apparent West winds obvious in low cloud field South of the center, but I think it may be trying. Fairly fast motion not helping.

I give this a 10% chance of closing off an LLC and being an STD before Tamaulipas, and since NHC, while canx both of today's flights, has one scheduled for tomorrow, a 2.5% chance this will officially be designated a (S)TC before landfall.

post-138-0-39256100-1307035425.jpg

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No apparent West winds obvious in low cloud field South of the center, but I think it may be trying. Fairly fast motion not helping.

I give this a 10% chance of closing off an LLC and being an STD before Tamaulipas, and since NHC, while canx both of today's flights, has one scheduled for tomorrow, a 2.5% chance this will officially be designated a (S)TC before landfall.

While wind shear is not a problem (around 5-10 knots over the invest), I think the abundance of dry air aloft will likely prevent any consistent deep thunderstorm activity necessary for future cyclogenesis.

11l3hc2.jpg

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SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE YUCATAN

PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR

DEVELOPMENT...THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME

A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10

PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

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As soon as this thing's done for good, someone's got to post the full sat loop.

Yeah,it will be cool to see.This was the only time that I can remember such a well formed MCV/MCS moving through NYC Metro during the early

morning hours near the end of May.

SPECI KLGA 301044Z 29020G30KT 3SM +TSRA FEW012 SCT022 OVC044CB 22/19 A3006 RMK AO2 PK WND 30030/1038 TSB44RAB33 OCNL LGTIC W-N AND OHD TS W-N AND OHD MOV E P0006

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Airplane canx. 0% chance, no matter what, of being an official STC or TC.

Still lame, but some thunderstorms are blowing up over the center. Westerly shear is evident, but should decrease a bit as it approaches the coast. It's better organized and probably closed, but not sure if it can sustain the thunderstorms for an extended period of time.

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