Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Had a nice beefy tower go up down near JOT with a good view from here and anvil out pretty quickly and just vanish, obviously still struggling against the cap. Can't remember the last time LOT did updates that close to eachother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Got an STW here. Sort of an oddly shaped watch box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Both the RUC and HRRR look decent for here, with initiation occurring in northern Oakland county and pushing south... Yeah, all the Hi-Res show a similar solution. Basically off the old outflow from this morning's MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Gino Izzi's report of the sounding indicates substantial CINH still present in ne IL at least for the short term. Yet the SPC meso page shows no CINH. I thought the SPC meso page parameters were taken from observations and not modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 DISCUSSION...WITH AIR MASS ACROSS THE WATCH VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AOA 3000J/KG AND LITTLE REMAINING CINH...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EASTWARD. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH 30-40KT OF SHEAR...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS LAKE BREEZE FRONTS OF LM/LH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Gino Izzi's report of the sounding indicates substantial CINH still present in ne IL at least for the short term. Yet the SPC meso page shows no CINH. I thought the SPC meso page parameters were taken from observations and not modeling. I'm fairly sure it's taken from the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 TCU is starting to develop here, especially to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Gino Izzi's report of the sounding indicates substantial CINH still present in ne IL at least for the short term. Yet the SPC meso page shows no CINH. I thought the SPC meso page parameters were taken from observations and not modeling. He was discussed this during the COD talk back in Feb. The meso analysis(from the RUC) gets worse as you progress in time away from the point data was put into it(usually 0z/12z/special soundings). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Had a nice beefy tower go up down near JOT with a good view from here and anvil out pretty quickly and just vanish, obviously still struggling against the cap. Can't remember the last time LOT did updates that close to eachother. same here, towers are trying but getting crushed failed tower and lake haze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 TCU is starting to develop here, especially to the north. Definitely. Things have really been bubbling up for the last half hour here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 0-4 with getting activity when under severe/tornado watches. Seems like we get severe storms when they aren't expected or under any kind of risk by the spc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Ah yes, I can see the boundary from a MTC-MBS line clearly on the satellite. It looks like the combination of this morning's outflow boundary and a lake breeze from Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Gino Izzi's report of the sounding indicates substantial CINH still present in ne IL at least for the short term. Yet the SPC meso page shows no CINH. I thought the SPC meso page parameters were taken from observations and not modeling. Seems like model dewpoints were a little overdone. I recall widespread 70-75 being depicted but most areas are in the upper 60's to low 70's right now. Conversely it is a little warmer than progged in some spots with Pontiac now showing 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The shallow convection south and west of DKB is still struggling against the cap, they better take off soon. And then they will eventually run into the lake breeze which is already west of ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 DTX also confirms what LOT said with respect to the cap, at least this way partially because of wake subsidence from this morning's MCS. However, a short wave from Wisconsin should erode it in the next couple of hours. Per DTX Everything else is good, and there's is certainly the potential for a reasonable severe weather outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Some showers going up over toward Kokomo but not sure how successful these will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 pretty cool image of the lake breeze on the 1km radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The circled area could be where initial development occurs...it's a definite increase from the last frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Some showers going up over toward Kokomo but not sure how successful these will be. I was typing about how those cells are south of the watch area and my weather radio went off about the southern expansion of the watch area into Central IN. They look like they may hold together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Craven's Significant Severe Parameteres are 70,000+ in Northern Illinois and the Southern Half of Michigan per the mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Sort of an oddly shaped watch box Yeah GRR left out some counties due to SFC analysis prob....and DTX is counting on that LK Huron boundary....I'd watch the DTX radar too to track the boundaries....usually as I'm sure most know from the area....Huron breeze usually tracks SW....lake St. Clair boundary usually moves WNW.....and Erie breeze usually NW....Most of the time they collide along M-59 between the Van Dyke Freeway in Sterling Heights (Macomb County M-59/M-53 junction) and initiate stuff too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 storms to my west getting alot better aloft, with another cell going up in northeast Kane Co. wow south of DKB cell went from 38kft to 47kft in one scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Not much change to the newest SPC outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Things that concerns me about the H-Res models is that they've been showing that initiation should have occurred by now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 shouldn't have to go more than a few miles from my house to see this storm coming in, getting alot better. Hail marker up to 1" now. wouldn't be suprised to see it warned within the next half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Yeah GRR left out some counties due to SFC analysis prob....and DTX is counting on that LK Huron boundary....I'd watch the DTX radar too to track the boundaries....usually as I'm sure most know from the area....Huron breeze usually tracks SW....lake St. Clair boundary usually moves WNW.....and Erie breeze usually NW....Most of the time they collide along M-59 between the Van Dyke Freeway in Sterling Heights (Macomb County M-59/M-53 junction) and initiate stuff too. IWX originally left a few of their southernmost counties out of the watch, but with initiation occurring over those counties, they quickly added them to the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 make that now... BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 302 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN DUPAGE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... SOUTHERN KANE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN WILL COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 400 PM CDT * AT 301 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL... AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HINCKLEY...OR 6 MILES NORTH OF LITTLE ROCK...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... ELBURN AROUND 310 PM CDT. SUGAR GROVE AROUND 315 PM CDT. NORTH AURORA...MONTGOMERY AND GENEVA AROUND 325 PM CDT. AURORA...BATAVIA AND OSWEGO AROUND 330 PM CDT. WARRENVILLE AROUND 340 PM CDT. NAPERVILLE AND WINFIELD AROUND 345 PM CDT. LISLE AND WHEATON AROUND 350 PM CDT. WOODRIDGE AND DOWNERS GROVE AROUND 355 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE BOULDER HILL AND GLENBARD SOUTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 make that now... Current storm motion/boundary orientation is not very favorable for storms to ride the boundary for any length of time but that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Environment Canada has extended the severe thunderstorm watch another 50 miles to the east and northeast. SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:17 PM EDT SATURDAY 4 JUNE 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR: =NEW= ELGIN COUNTY =NEW= LONDON - MIDDLESEX COUNTY WINDSOR - ESSEX COUNTY - CITY OF CHATHAM-KENT SARNIA - LAMBTON COUNTY. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Yeah GRR left out some counties due to SFC analysis prob....and DTX is counting on that LK Huron boundary....I'd watch the DTX radar too to track the boundaries....usually as I'm sure most know from the area....Huron breeze usually tracks SW....lake St. Clair boundary usually moves WNW.....and Erie breeze usually NW....Most of the time they collide along M-59 between the Van Dyke Freeway in Sterling Heights (Macomb County M-59/M-53 junction) and initiate stuff too. Yeah, looks like multiple storm-lettes trying to initiate right now over Lapeer, Tuscola, and Sanilac Counties MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.