Chicago Storm Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 I'm just going to hangout at home for now and see how the afternoon plays out and what the lake breeze does if it forms which I believe it will. HRRR has been all over the place with location of intiation but wouldn't expect it to pin down an exact area. The 14z RUC gets the lake breeze all the way out to dekalb county by 22z The show for this area will likely come from the remnants of the NW. Kansas/SW. Nebraska storms from last evening, currently in E. Iowa. Cells up by DBQ have been maintained and there is an OFB that extends down to the northwest side of the QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The show for this area will likely come from the remnants of the NW. Kansas/SW. Nebraska storms from last evening, currently in E. Iowa. Cells up by DBQ have been maintained and there is an OFB that extends down to the northwest side of the QC. Agreed. Storms will likely blow up along that outflow. You can already see some vertical development along that line from eastern Iowa up towards Dubuque. Looks like we'll be spared here, as things won't really get going until it's east of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 New obs should be pretty wild, by far the warmest and most humid day here lakeside. Still liking my previous target area, hoping to see some really nice backlit towers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Here is a shot of the storm approaching I like the picture on_wx. The MCS had lots of lightening and rain here but no wind. It was interesting just to have one of these over here. Not spectacular but a rare event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I like the picture on_wx. The MCS had lots of lightening and rain here but no wind. It was interesting just to have one of these over here. Not spectacular but a rare event. The CP24 meteorologist Jamie G said he was surprised Toronto was not under a severe thunderstorm warning because he saw "some very big and bright flashes of lightning" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 LOT... 945 AM CDT MODIFIED THE GRIDS SOME THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECREASED CLOUDS AND BUMPED UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. THE LAKEFRONT WAS ALREADY READING MID 80S AND AWOS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE AREA ARE ALREADY FLIRTING WITH 90. CIRRUS DECK MOVING IN FROM THE WEST IS CONTINUING TO THIN AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE THINKING AS DESCRIBED PREVIOUSLY FOR THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND AHEAD OF IT...AND ACROSS OUR AREA...WE WILL KEEP DESTABILIZING. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THAT ANY SURFACE BASED CINH IS RAPIDLY DECREASING AND OVERALL INSTABILITY INCREASING. CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN IOWA WILL LIKELY BE THE BEGINNINGS OF THE MAIN SHOW THIS AFTERNOON AND IS SLATED TO MOVE IN AND ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY BEYOND THE NOON HOUR. FOR LAKE FRONT LOCATIONS...EXPECT A RAPID TRANSITION FROM THE HOT AND MUGGY UPPER 80S TO 90S AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SOUTH ALONG THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND WILL BRING IN THE CHILLY MARINE AIRMASS ON TO LAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Band of clouds moving through here right now is likely gonna be what fires over northern Illinois in the next hour or two. They look pretty innocent right now. As it turns out the storms in Nebraska last night did have an impact, as it seems they've pushed things a little further east than what some of the models were showing last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 That was my area to watch yesterday and remains so today, anything that fired NW of here will be sliding SE right into that bounday which i think puts SW burbs like Joliet in the crosshairs. This is one of those days that isn't really synoptically evident but still could be very dangerous if a cell can latch onto that boundary. There's probably a lot more of these that don't produce but you never know when the fluke will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 getting a new cell going southeast of Mount Carroll, IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Looks like they trimmed the southern part of the risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Looks like I may have been wrong about the outflow boundary. It still may go, but I may have discounted Iowa a bit too early lol. Looks like some vertical development out near Des Moines, and points south. HRRR has been all over the place, so don't know what to make of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 temps and dews dropping lakeside along with cloud formation, looks like early signs of the lake front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Environment Canada is wasting no time. Across the river from Detroit & Port Huron MI SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 12:45 PM EDT SATURDAY 4 JUNE 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR: =NEW= WINDSOR - ESSEX COUNTY - CITY OF CHATHAM-KENT =NEW= SARNIA - LAMBTON COUNTY. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== A WARM HUMID AIR MASS HAS MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS PRODUCING 50 MM IN AN HOUR OR LESS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 90 KM/H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Don't know much about the scale but the Derecho composite parameter is up to 4 for much of ne IL and northern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Don't know much about the scale but the Derecho composite parameter is up to 4 for much of ne IL and northern IN. looks like it would be a lot higher if shear were better, dcape and mucape are both impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 low-level lapse rates really increasing and LI's up to -10 across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Don't know much about the scale but the Derecho composite parameter is up to 4 for much of ne IL and northern IN. The derecho composite was up to 12+ for the may 31st severe event in Michigan, would have been something crazy to see if it would have formed, instead we just got a few discreet severe cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 12z 4km WRF suggess the threat will be from I-80 and points south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 12z 4km WRF suggess the threat will be from I-80 and points south. i still think there is a threat up to 88, but judging by the way things are stabilizing here and how fast winds turn north up the lake, i think mby is in the clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Still a little bit of CINH in nw and north central IL but almost completely absent throughout the rest of IL and IN per SPC meso page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 i still think there is a threat up to 88, but judging by the way things are stabilizing here and how fast winds turn north up the lake, i think mby is in the clear. Have a great bbq and beer bash today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 From the latest HRRR run... This develops out of the area of showers currently around Tipton/Iowa City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 12z 4km WRF suggess the threat will be from I-80 and points south. It also said last nights MCS was going to come thru central michigan for several runs and it ended up hitting the ontario guys here in the thread (nice panorama shelf cloud pic btw). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 From the latest HRRR run... This develops out of the area of showers currently around Tipton/Iowa City. Holy Sh*t.. we don't have to go far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 That progged cell looks scary and seems primed to move se along the intersection with the lake breeze front as earlier runs have indicated. Will need to bear watching for sure if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 that thing really bows out across chi metro and into northwest IN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Those current cells ne of Iowa City near Tipton seem to be increasing significantly at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 It also said last nights MCS was going to come thru central michigan for several runs and it ended up hitting the ontario guys here in the thread (nice panorama shelf cloud pic btw). Not the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Izzi had a nice mid day write up. Marine airmass coming ashore just north of the border, so i have maybe an hour or two left before the plunge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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