SEMIweather Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 YES!!! We have absolutely no convective debris or MCS to contend with!!! This FTW, plus the HRRR is getting more bullish on convective development late this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 This FTW, plus the HRRR is getting more bullish on convective development late this afternoon. RUC's bringing back the insane instability values too. CAPE of 5000+ J/KG and LI's of -11+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The 10z HRRR has a discrete supercell moving from northwest of DKB to JOT between 23z and 1z. That was my area to watch yesterday and remains so today, anything that fired NW of here will be sliding SE right into that bounday which i think puts SW burbs like Joliet in the crosshairs. Cool looking semi-unique setup tomorrow across Chicagoland. I'll echo others and say that i like the favored lake boundary convergence zone, especially the southwest suburbs...say Naperville to Joliet. Flash flooding may also be an issue as storms along lake boundaries tend to dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Doesn't include me yet, but some of the areas just warned the storms have already passed them. Also, there is a line building back into southern Perth County heading this way at 40 mph. DTX and BUF radar are indicating some good hail and damaging wind potential. Also intense lightning. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:38 AM EDT SATURDAY 4 JUNE 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR: =NEW= WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY =NEW= LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY =NEW= MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY =NEW= ORANGEVILLE - GRAND VALLEY - SOUTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY =NEW= SHELBURNE - MANSFIELD - NORTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY =NEW= SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY =NEW= HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== WEATHER RADAR INDICATES THAT A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREY-BRUCE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 CM HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS TO 90 KM/H AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE OPP REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND HYDRO LINES IN THE PAISLEY AREA, SOUTHEAST OF PORT ELGIN AS OF 9:30 AM EDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Not sure if the 5000 threshold is reached, but it's going to be close. Should start seeing signs of a lake breeze on visible in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Not sure if the 5000 threshold is reached, but it's going to be close. Should start seeing signs of a lake breeze on visible in a few hours. Yep already getting clouds to thin and break up in eastern IA, we will become very unstable later on with dew points >70 across all of northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Doesn't include me yet, but some of the areas just warned the storms have already passed them. Also, there is a line building back into southern Perth County heading this way at 40 mph. DTX and BUF radar are indicating some good hail and damaging wind potential. Also intense lightning. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 9:38 AM EDT SATURDAY 4 JUNE 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR: =NEW= WINGHAM - BLYTH - NORTHERN HURON COUNTY =NEW= LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY =NEW= MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY =NEW= ORANGEVILLE - GRAND VALLEY - SOUTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY =NEW= SHELBURNE - MANSFIELD - NORTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY =NEW= SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY =NEW= HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== WEATHER RADAR INDICATES THAT A CLUSTER OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREY-BRUCE AREA THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 2 CM HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS TO 90 KM/H AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. IN ADDITION, THERE ARE OPP REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES AND HYDRO LINES IN THE PAISLEY AREA, SOUTHEAST OF PORT ELGIN AS OF 9:30 AM EDT. I'm not sure where you live exactly, but the line of storms looks likes it is closing in on Kitchener. Lots of rumbles around here, but nothing too exciting. The action is up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I'm not sure where you live exactly, but the line of storms looks likes it is closing in on Kitchener. Lots of rumbles around here, but nothing too exciting. The action is up your way. Severe thunderstorm warning just issued for Middlesex County north to Waterloo Region. CANWARN reported large hail in near Arthur up my way, here's hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 RUC's bringing back the insane instability values too. CAPE of 5000+ J/KG and LI's of -11+ BTW, that's just the surface based CAPE and LI's. MUCAPE is likely even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 London snowsquall, a CANWARN spotter has hail on Wonderland Rd in western London Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 now were cookin' with gas...the 12z RUC with over 7000 j/kg by 21z It also lights up the entire lake breeze from WI to the south side of chi before 21z and no development out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The sky is a very sick colour of green right now, massive lightning inside of it too This is some of the craziest storm structure I have ever seen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 DTX went with all thunderstorms in their grids (no showers), bumped up the probabilities to likely and added a severe weather mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 DTX's update. Long story short, we're looking good and hot with whichever solution verifies... 000FXUS63 KDTX 041411 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1011 AM EDT SAT JUN 4 2011 .UPDATE... THE FACT THAT LAST NIGHTS MCS TRACKED NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON. AT 13Z...A WARM FRONT WAS NUDGING INTO SW LOWER MI. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN A HOT HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS IT LIFTS ACROSS SE MI. FULL MORNING SUN WILL ALSO AID IN DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN CURRENT TEMP TRENDS...IT SEEMS QUITE LIKELY THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODIFIED 12Z DTX SOUNDING FOR 90 OVER 70 YIELDS ROUGHLY 3500 J/KG SURFACE BASED CAPE. CAPE DENSITY ON THE SOUNDING WAS ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH NOT DEEP...THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING DOES SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 750 MB. THE REGIONAL WATER VAPOR LOOP DOES SHOW A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES EXTENDING FROM SE MN INTO NRN KS. THESE WAVES WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY...LEADING TO SOME MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS SRN MI. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL ALSO TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FORCING COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY BREAK THE CAP THIS AFTERNOON...OPENING THE DOOR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. 0-6KM UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS COMBINED WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR LINEAR MODES OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOW A SFC MESO LOW DEVELOPING OVER SE MI...WHICH WOULD INCREASE 0-3KM HELICITY. ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT MCS WHICH IS NOW ROLLING INTO HURON COUNTY. THUS CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SUPERCELLS. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AND ADD A MENTION OF POSSIBLE SEVERE. THE DEGREE OF WARM AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO WARRANT BOOSTING MAX TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES. HAVE CONSIDERED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR METRO DETROIT. THE DURATION OF HIGH HEAT INDICES MAY HOWEVER BE BRIEF IF THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME BEING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 SBCAPE already up to 4500 j/kg south of IKK and its only 9 30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The sky is a very sick colour of green right now, massive lightning inside of it too This is some of the craziest storm structure I have ever seen! Yes, it is very rare for a MCS to get over this way. Lots of rain and lightening this way but severe stuff might be west of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Yes, it is very rare for a MCS to get over this way. Lots of rain and lightening this way but severe stuff might be west of here. The winds probably hit about 60kmh here, but I've got the scanner on and there are multiple reports of wind damage especially across Wilmot Township. Cambridge police just reported damage and debris at the city hall, officer stuck in his car. Multiple units just requested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 London snowsquall, a CANWARN spotter has hail on Wonderland Rd in western London Just saw this now. Wonderland Rd. in SW London is very close to me. We had no hail or wind here. Just lots of lightning which has eased up. Seems that DTX is saying things could get interesting this afternoon. We'll see what later on today brings.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 From the DTX Hazardous Weather Outlook, issued at 10:30AM: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY BETWEEN 2 PMAND 9 PM. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS.THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 70MPH AND HAIL TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES IN DIAMETER. THE POTENTIALALSO EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. A WIDE VARIETY IN THUNDERSTORMMOTION IS EXPECTED...MOST STORM HOWEVER SHOULD TRACK TO THE EASTAT 30 MPH. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNINGAND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN A HOT AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONGAND IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. Don't think I've read anything like the bolded before! Is that fairly uncommon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 DTX moved up my forecast high to 91*F for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Here is a shot of the storm approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I share the Chicago area posters' concern for lake breeze enhanced helicity which could heighten the tornado threat later today. In addition, as Hoosier has pointed out in a separate thread, this is already a record year for tornadoes in IN even as we have been fortunate not to have the violent wedges that have occurred elsewhere. A set up like today with MCS or QLCS could favor spin ups like we have had this spring even if discrete cells do not form since 500 mb flow is expected to be stronger farther east in the outlook area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Temps really going crazy, Waukegan already 85, so much for the high of 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Here is a shot of the storm approaching nice shelf and omg, don't come home drunk at night, you'll never find your place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 HRRR holds 175-225 J/kg of 0-1km SRH across Chicago metro/NWI at 21z ahead of that cell...yikers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Here is a shot of the storm approaching If I could take a panoramic photo of the storm, it would probably look something like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Today is looking pretty good, kind of reminds me of 6/25/09 where the morning MCS surprisingly didn't hit us and then things went bonkers in the afternoon as instability build up much more than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Here is a shot of the storm approaching Nice pic, impressive shelf cloud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 HRRR holds 175-225 J/kg of 0-1km SRH across Chicago metro/NWI at 21z ahead of that cell...yikers... I'm just going to hangout at home for now and see how the afternoon plays out and what the lake breeze does if it forms which I believe it will. HRRR has been all over the place with location of intiation but wouldn't expect it to pin down an exact area. The 14z RUC gets the lake breeze all the way out to dekalb county by 22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 new HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.