Hoosier Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 You guys think they will hatch the day 1 outlook? I'd lean no but it's close. I'm not sure whether sig hail or sig wind is more likely. Guess convective mode will play a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 You guys think they will hatch the day 1 outlook? I'd lean no but it's close. I'm not sure whether sig hail or sig wind is more likely. Guess convective mode will play a role. I don't know. If I had to choose one or the other, I would hatch hail given the high-res models' tendencies for semi-discrete/discrete structures for part of the event, though I would probably hatch both. I also would make sure there is a 5% tornado for northern IL in case the winds stay more backed/lake breeze sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I don't know. If I had to choose one or the other, I would hatch hail given the high-res models' tendencies for semi-discrete/discrete structures for part of the event, though I would probably hatch both. I also would make sure there is a 5% tornado for northern IL in case the winds stay more backed/lake breeze sets up. Exactly what I was thinking 30% hatched hail and wind and 5% probs for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Sure enough, looking more closely at the SPC WRF, it's got a damn boundary coming off the lake, inducing the winds to back ahead of it and substantially increasing low-level shear just ahead of those initial discrete cells at 23z. Damnit that had better not happen or there will be hell to pay for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I don't know. If I had to choose one or the other, I would hatch hail given the high-res models' tendencies for semi-discrete/discrete structures for part of the event, though I would probably hatch both. I also would make sure there is a 5% tornado for northern IL in case the winds stay more backed/lake breeze sets up. Pretty much the entire model suite advertising mid level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km too. Throw the rotating updraft together with high CAPE supporting a large portion of it being in the -10 to -30 C zone and I would say big hail is a threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Actually, after further examination, that might actually be a mesolow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Exactly what I was thinking 30% hatched hail and wind and 5% probs for tornadoes. The more I think about it the more I'm thinking hatched is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Pretty much the entire model suite advertising mid level lapse rates approaching 8 C/km too. Throw the rotating updraft together with high CAPE supporting a large portion of it being in the -10 to -30 C zone and I would say big hail is a threat. Yeah I could totally see some unGodly hail sizes coming out of this region tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Actually, after further examination, that might actually be a mesolow... It's even showing surface winds due southerly west of the QC in front of that large supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 You guys think they will hatch the day 1 outlook? I'd lean no but it's close. I'm not sure whether sig hail or sig wind is more likely. Guess convective mode will play a role. I think we might see one for Winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I think we might see one for Winds Or no hatching at all. Early outlook today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 If they hatch anything it would probably be the hail due to the CAPE density from the -10c to -30c levels. Edit: looks like no hatching, almost looks like they reverted back to the morning day 2 outlook looking at the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Even this late into the night we have a widespread swath of surface based cape over 2000j/kg from Iowa into Wisconsin. Instability will be getting a nice head start in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 tornado threat looks pretty low imo, unless we can somehow lay down a boundary that can increase the low level srh. Hail is the big threat and possible bowing sections of a line, but winds aren't unidirectional with storm movement so i'll lean with some 1.5-2.0 inch threat for hail being the big news. If winds somehow find a way to back or at least go southerly i could see a quick spin up, certainly not a long track sort of day. edit: actually wind threat is decent, I didn't check some of the local soundings I thought we had some rapid SE moving storms, a W-E moving storm along the front can bow out and go nuts so wind-hail should probably be a 30-30 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 already getting a hint of the lake breeze boundary starting to get going on the HRRR by 18z tomorrow with sfc winds in extreme northeast IL and southeast WI and also the lake starting to veer around a get a northerly component to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP INVOF FRONTAL ZONE FROM SRN APPALACHIANS NWWD ACROSS MID MS VALLEY REGION...COVERAGE BECOMING MORE UNCERTAIN/ISOLATED WITH NWWD EXTENT FROM MS RIVER. ADDITIONAL FOCI MAY CONSIST OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION PREVIOUS NIGHT OR ON MORNING OF DAY-2. ANY MCV LINGERING FROM PREVIOUS ACTIVITY ALSO MAY DEVELOP AND INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVER THIS CORRIDOR. CONDITIONAL SUPERCELL THREAT EXISTS...ESPECIALLY FROM OH RIVER REGION WNWWD WHERE BACKED SFC WINDS...SLIGHTLY ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...STG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND LARGE CAPE ARE EXPECTED. LACK OF MORE ROBUST MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS AREA INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY-PRECIP CHARACTER AND UPSCALE/CLUSTERING DEVELOPMENT SOON AFTER INDIVIDUAL TSTMS MATURE. RESERVOIR OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE CONCENTRATED INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...WITH RELATIVELY DEEPENED BOUNDARY LAYER CONTAINING SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F...SUPPORTING MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/KG UNDER AREA OF RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATED FROM INDIANA WWD. HOWEVER...THOSE STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE RELATED TO ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER AIR MASS THAT ALSO WILL PROVIDE PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAPPING AND MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION...ESPECIALLY FROM MO/IA BORDER REGION WWD TO NEB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 anyone order an eastward moving bow echo and a westward moving bow as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Overdone but the RUC keeping most of northern IL quite unstable still at 21z and breaks out convection between 18z and 21z along and north of I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The 10z RUC is quite scary if it were to verify...It pops a discrete supercell between DBQ and FEP at 20z and slowly moves southeastward staying discrete in a very unstable environment under 500mb flow of 45kts...by 22z the storm is between DKB and RFD with the lake breeze starting to move west across chi metro...I'm still not sure on the tornado threat but FWIW..the RUC increases 0-3km EHI's to around 4-6 along the I-80/88 corridors by 22z. 20z 22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Pretty quiet start to the morning convection wise, including no southeast MCS present across Wisconsin, which i had suspect might sends a lake enhanced outflow boundary down the lake and stabilize far northeast Illinois. Also ot seeing much out there to discount the rather extreme CAPE forecast for the area, heck sbcape is already 2500 with an LI of -8 over far southern Wisconsin and it's not even 7am. The 0z SPC WRF solution screems urban flash flood threat with embedded marbles. I was hoping to hang and watch some towers fire up to my south, but my concern is growing....just don't think the lake front comes through in time. Fun forecast either way. btw, gotta love free AC temperature rising to near 87 by noon, then falling to around 65 during the remainder of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The 10z RUC is quite scary if it were to verify...It pops a discrete supercell between DBQ and FEP at 20z and slowly moves southeastward staying discrete in a very unstable environment under 500mb flow of 45kts...by 22z the storm is between DKB and RFD with the lake breeze starting to move west across chi metro...I'm still not sure on the tornado threat but FWIW..the RUC increases 0-3km EHI's to around 4-6 along the I-80/88 corridors by 22z. IMO the tornado threat is pretty real for a narrow corridor across northeast Illinois away from the lake. We've seen enough spinups in super high CAPE environment cells encountering lake fronts to know what can happen. IF discrete action is heading into the area later and if there is a lake front pushing west, i'm sure LOT and the SPC will be all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Pretty quiet start to the morning convection wise, including no southeast MCS present across Wisconsin, which i had suspect might sends a lake enhanced outflow boundary down the lake and stabilize far northeast Illinois. Also ot seeing much out there to discount the rather extreme CAPE forecast for the area, heck sbcape is already 2500 with an LI of -8 over far southern Wisconsin and it's not even 7am. The 0z SPC WRF solution screems urban flash flood threat with embedded marbles. I was hoping to hang and watch some towers fire up to my south, but my concern is growing....just don't think the lake front comes through in time. Fun forecast either way. btw, gotta love free AC You can see the lake breeze boundary in the instability gradient at 22z, will be interesting watching the develop of this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 You can see the lake breeze boundary in the instability gradient at 22z, will be interesting watching the develop of this.. 22z is a pretty typical time from a lake breeze to have come through, just not sure convection can hold off until then...unlikely actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 22z is a pretty typical time from a lake breeze to have come through, just not sure convection can hold off until then...unlikely actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 That HRRR solution spares me, just barely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 new run of the HRRR holds off a bit longer on convection and a bit more discrete at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 YES!!! We have absolutely no convective debris or MCS to contend with!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The 10z HRRR has a discrete supercell moving from northwest of DKB to JOT between 23z and 1z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 8:56 AM EDT SATURDAY 4 JUNE 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO... SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR: =NEW= HURON COUNTY - PERTH COUNTY =NEW= WATERLOO REGION - WELLINGTON COUNTY GREY COUNTY - BRUCE.COUNTY ..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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