Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Might we see something as far north as Milwaukee or Madison? the best chance is further south, I wouldn't bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The 1z run of the 24hr RUC is quite interesting...it blows up storms on a lake breeze boundary over Chicago and then the boundary and storms haul west with the look of a westward moving squall line in the late afternoon/evening. It also blows up more isolated storms from central/eastern IA into northwest IL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Craziness. That, and the NAM is showing widespread 75+ degree dewpoints for Southeastern Michigan. NAM verbatim shows us being muggier than anywhere in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. Wooooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The 1z run of the 24hr RUC is quite interesting...it blows up storms on a lake breeze boundary over Chicago and then the boundary and storms haul west with the look of a westward moving squall line in the late afternoon/evening. It also blows up more isolated storms from central/eastern IA into northwest IL.. Strange solution but not impossible I suppose. I think that is kinda what happened on 7/17/03 - storms formed along the lake breeze in northern IL and then turned south and eventually southwest. Tony might remember better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Strange solution but not impossible I suppose. I think that is kinda what happened on 7/17/03 - storms formed along the lake breeze in northern IL and then turned south and eventually southwest. Tony might remember better... had to go and look at what exactly happened that day.. The central IL radar loop is quite interesting. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/030717/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 had to go and look at what exactly happened that day.. The central IL radar loop is quite interesting. http://www.spc.noaa....0717/index.html I tried both Chrome and FF, and could not expand the lists on that site to view the radar loops..hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I tried both Chrome and FF, and could not expand the lists on that site to view the radar loops..hmmm worked on my Internet Explorer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 It's really amazing how terrible all the models are handling tonight's non-convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Wooooo! What's been seen can't be unseen. Well never mind, it is the RUC. I'd knock about 1500 J/KG off that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Craziness. That, and the NAM is showing widespread 75+ degree dewpoints for Southeastern Michigan. NAM verbatim shows us being muggier than anywhere in Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. 00z NAM's prety insane too. Its 2m temps are also warmer, it has us getting to around 90*F late in the afternoon, that's definitely warmer from what it was been showing. Talk about a powder keg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 worked on my Internet Explorer lol Hey, there it goes! haha, weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 00z NAM's prety insane too. Its 2m temps are also warmer, it has us getting to around 90*F late in the afternoon, that's definitely warmer from what it was been showing. Talk about a powder keg. Shear profiles are somewhat lacking, but with the large amount of DCAPE available tomorrow, I could definitely see a rather large wind threat developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 LOT... 905 PM CDT NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...I ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR SATURDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA ON SATURDAY. MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE...MAY LEAD TO QUICK UP GROWTH INTO AN MCS. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME THE MAIN THREAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. I AM ALSO CONCERNED WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC WILL BE VERY WARM AND MOIST...WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FT...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ESF FOR THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Cool looking semi-unique setup tomorrow across Chicagoland. I'll echo others and say that i like the favored lake boundary convergence zone, especially the southwest suburbs...say Naperville to Joliet. Flash flooding may also be an issue as storms along lake boundaries tend to dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 LOT... 905 PM CDT NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...I ADDED THE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS FOR SATURDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOME SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA ON SATURDAY. MODEL BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATED A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KT SHOULD SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY SUPER CELLS THAT DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT THE SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE...MAY LEAD TO QUICK UP GROWTH INTO AN MCS. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT STRONG DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME THE MAIN THREAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. I AM ALSO CONCERNED WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS. IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC WILL BE VERY WARM AND MOIST...WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AT OR ABOVE 10,000 FT...AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES. IN ADDITION...CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE AN ESF FOR THE AREA. get out of what you have to do tomorrow yet? lol I will be out and about with the storms, got nothing going on tomorrow. Nicely done discussion and like the mention of supercells but not banking on seeing one, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 GFS as expected isn't nearly as bullish as the NAM/RUC in terms of instability/moisture/temperature values, but even it has the dewpoints in the mid 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Woops. I posted the following in the general discussion a few hours ago. Meant to put it here lol... The SPC day2 outlook lines up pretty well with what the new NAM shows. Looks like an MCS develops over Iowa and quickly pushes east through northern Illinois into Indiana by evening. Since winds aloft aren't impressive at all, this will have to rely heavily on cold pool formation, which places the best shot of stronger winds further east towards Chicago/points east or southeast. The northern half of Indiana could get real interesting tomorrow evening. It looks like it stays pretty unstable in Ohio well past dark, so there's a good shot that much of Ohio would get impacted by this MCS late tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 get out of what you have to do tomorrow yet? lol I will be out and about with the storms, got nothing going on tomorrow. Nicely done discussion and like the mention of supercells but not banking on seeing one, we'll see. No, not possible... I'll be right in the area though, so if something comes through i'll see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I hope this stuff doesn't stay to my north all day tomorrow. Not really too concerned yet but I would be down toward IND/HUF and especially south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The GFS pools widespread mid 70 degree dews south of the east/west boundary tomorrow. As a result it has cape values over 4000j/kg over a decent size area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The HRRR is showing AOA 4000 j/kg along and southeast of a line from RAC to SQI to southern/southeast IA with a small area of 5000 j/kg of chi metro, all at 16z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Wooooo! looks good even if its overdone by a 1000 (J/kg) most people will still be in good shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I hope this stuff doesn't stay to my north all day tomorrow. Not really too concerned yet but I would be down toward IND/HUF and especially south of there. The GFS curves the MCS south just enough that it looks like it nails LAF. NAM's a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 The GFS pools widespread mid 70 degree dews south of the east/west boundary tomorrow. As a result it has cape values over 4000j/kg over a decent size area. big differences between the GFS/NAM of timing of when convection breaks out. GFS much earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 big differences between the GFS/NAM of timing of when convection breaks out. GFS much earlier. I'm wondering how the storms currently over Nebraska are gonna evolve. If it develops into a large complex it could have an impact on where things setup tomorrow. We're sort of on the western/northwest edge here, so I'm a bit concerned with how that will evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 I'm wondering how the storms currently over Nebraska are gonna evolve. If it develops into a large complex it could have an impact on where things setup tomorrow. We're sort of on the western/northwest edge here, so I'm a bit concerned with how that will evolve. It doesn't look that impressive now and the HRRR doesn't do much with it besides pushing it off to the northeast and into central IA by mid-morning. I think were ok but its something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Interesting. Definitely seems slower than the other models. Though the overall trend has been to slow things down by the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Wow....a few of those at 23z are discrete supercells... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 00z SPC WRF says long day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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