KokomoWX Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Day 2 Probs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 For those that haven't seen it, here is a radar screen capture from just after the tornado went through Springfield, MA. Debris ball, 150 knots gate to gate, classic hook echo, video evidence of a wedge (just as it was entering Monson, MA). All evidence I've seen points to at least an EF3. And I think this officially makes 2011 the year of the debris ball. I can never remember seeing so many. My parents don't know the difference between a watch and warning but they can identify a debris ball on GR2Analyst when I stop by on the weekend. What an incredible shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 For those that haven't seen it, here is a radar screen capture from just after the tornado went through Springfield, MA. Debris ball, 150 knots gate to gate, classic hook echo, video evidence of a wedge (just as it was entering Monson, MA). All evidence I've seen points to at least an EF3. And I think this officially makes 2011 the year of the debris ball. I can never remember seeing so many. My parents don't know the difference between a watch and warning but they can identify a debris ball on GR2Analyst when I stop by on the weekend. second that, I have never seen so many debris balls like I have over the last few months, just incredible. textbook supercell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM SRN LAKE MI WWD ACROSS NRN IL INTO SRN IA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 55 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STRONG FRONTAL FORCING...VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. WILL LEAVE THE 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY AND NARROW THE THREAT AREA TO COINCIDE WITH AN ENSEMBLED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE NAM...GFS...NAMKF AND SREF. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN NRN MO AND SRN IA WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 The tornado in Shaunavan, Saskatchewan yesterday afternoon. http://www.cbc.ca/ne...rning-1106.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM SRN LAKE MI WWD ACROSS NRN IL INTO SRN IA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE BOUNDARY SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY MID-AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY EXIST WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 55 KT RANGE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STRONG FRONTAL FORCING...VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LINEAR MCS WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. WILL LEAVE THE 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY ACROSS THE NRN OH VALLEY AND NARROW THE THREAT AREA TO COINCIDE WITH AN ENSEMBLED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FROM THE NAM...GFS...NAMKF AND SREF. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE LINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN NRN MO AND SRN IA WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPER. I wonder if they meant strong unidirectional shear. I'm not seeing strong directional shear. Edit: well I guess it's not terrible from the surface to about 600 mb, but the flow backs above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 The 12z NAM is slower with the front compared to the 0z run as you can see how it keeps the instability a bit further north and west and also a tad more generous 12z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 The 12z NAM is slower with the front compared to the 0z run as you can see how it keeps the instability a bit further north and west and also a tad more generous 12z 0z I smell another RUC 6000 CAPE day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I smell another RUC 6000 CAPE day. Oh im sure we'll see those amounts if not higher. I'm liking the prospects more and more for a good round of severe weather here tomorrow or close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Oh im sure we'll see those amounts if not higher. I'm liking the prospects more and more for a good round of severe weather here tomorrow or close by. I'll be helping someone move tomorrow, so you may have to shoot me an update or two if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 wait there's a severe threat tomorrow....I'm so out of the loop. Working ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 I smell another RUC 6000 CAPE day. Already 5000+ at 16z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Not seeing much lake relief there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Already 5000+ at 16z... quite impressive for 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Tomorrow needs to be watched extremely closely for northern IL. I have not taken a real hard look at a ton of guidance, but I did look at the 12z SPC WRF. It has what would appear to be an intense supercell riding NW-SE from RFD to JOT along an apparent boundary, where winds to the west are from the west and winds to the east are from the east. That could spell some major trouble if we realize the major CAPE that the models are forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Tomorrow needs to be watched extremely closely for northern IL. I have not taken a real hard look at a ton of guidance, but I did look at the 12z SPC WRF. It has what would appear to be an intense supercell riding NW-SE from RFD to JOT along an apparent boundary, where winds to the west are from the west and winds to the east are from the east. That could spell some major trouble if we realize the major CAPE that the models are forecasting. You mean that cell at the very end of the run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 You mean that cell at the very end of the run? Yeah, look at the updraft helicity on that sucker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Tor watches issued now for basically the northern half of WI and ne MN till midnight CDT. This might not be the bust like the one previously issued for the St. Louis area the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Yeah, look at the updraft helicity on that sucker. Guess we'll have to watch the morning stuff to see if it lays down a boundary. That could really alter the setup at least in a localized corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 based on the sfc winds and sim radar loop on the 24hr RUC, it pops some big storms on a lake breeze in northeast IL around 20z tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 here she is...and I thought the main activity around here would be early afternoon but that all depends on speed/location of the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Gil in his back from vacation blog for today thinks it plausible that the cold front could slow down and come through prime time Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Gil in his back from vacation blog for today thinks it plausible that the cold front could slow down and come through prime time Saturday. Link? always forget his Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 NIU Weather http://weather.niu.edu/forecast.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I'll be helping someone move tomorrow, so you may have to shoot me an update or two if you can. That's what I gotta do Sunday lol. That WRF image is sort of spooky. Sort of reminds me of the Plainfield F5 supercell that formed near Rockford. I'm sure nothing like that will happen, but it's the first thing that popped into my mind when I first saw the image. Agree with all you guys that northern Illinois points east/east-southeast look primed for a widespread severe event tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 hoping that lake keeps things in check here, have a big day of grilling, beer drinking and lounging planned. Wouldn't mind watching some towers go up to the west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Wall cloud reported with this nice supercell in far N. Wisconsin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 It looks like the 0z NAM holds off an convection till after 18z allowing for alot of instability to building up (around 3000 j/kg) in a narrow corridor from around DSM to south of DBQ to to MKX to IKK then back west along and north of I-80. After that it lights up a cluster of thunderstorms from IOW to DBQ into northwest IL by 21z as instability continues to build northern IL. The storm complex then heads ESE across northern IL by 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 Wooooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 4, 2011 Share Posted June 4, 2011 It looks like the 0z NAM holds off an convection till after 18z allowing for alot of instability to building up (around 3000 j/kg) in a narrow corridor from around DSM to south of DBQ to to MKX to IKK then back west along and north of I-80. After that it lights up a cluster of thunderstorms from IOW to DBQ into northwest IL by 21z as instability continues to build northern IL. The storm complex then heads ESE across northern IL by 0z. Might we see something as far north as Milwaukee or Madison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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