Chicago Storm Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Another event begins in the Plains on Wednesday... DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SRN APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ..SYNOPSIS NRN PERIPHERY OF SRN U.S. SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED BY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC AND NERN STATES WEDNESDAY. FARTHER UPSTREAM ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER INTO THE WESTERN STATES. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH THROUGH NERN U.S. WHILE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL RETURN NWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. ..NEB...SD...IA AND SRN MN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT AS RICHER MOISTURE RETURNS NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING EXTENT OF SURFACE BASED INITIATION DURING THE DAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN WAKE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH EWD EXPANDING EML SUGGEST THE MOIST WARM SECTOR COULD POTENTIALLY REMAIN CAPPED OR SURFACE BASED STORM COVERAGE MIGHT BE LIMITED. A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR WARM FRONT DURING PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING OVER A PORTION OF CNTRL NEB WHERE DEEPER VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. OTHERWISE ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT NORTH OF WARM FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM ERN SD...NWRN IA INTO SRN MN WHERE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAILSTORMS. ..WRN KS AND ERN CO THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS DEEP MIXING ALONG WRN EDGE OF RICHER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PROMOTE A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING FROM THE SRN THROUGH CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. HAVE INTRODUCED A CATEGORICAL RISK FOR THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING HIGH BASED STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT INTO THE SRN PLAINS...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I guess we went back 2 months in the time machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 I guess we went back 2 months in the time machine. I thought something looked wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 June 1st- it looks like there could be some scattered areas of severe weather in Kansas and Nebraska, possibly tornadoes. Also, it its likely the northeast will see a squall line/ scattered wind/hail reports. June 2nd- The SPC has "see text" for Minnesota and slight for Montana. We may see some activity worth discussing. The supercell composite values will be very high in Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Everything looks sexy until you look how strong the cap will be..specifically talking about parts of MN and the Dakotas on the 2nd and the 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Some of the craziest return flow I have seen in a while into Nebraska. A guess a deep subtropical ridge and a western CONUS wave will support that. Wednesday looks mildly interesting for NE, probably a more typical summertime setup. Directional shear is rather impressive through the low to mid levels, but weak low level convergence through 00Z may keep this a late event towards evening. Slow storm motions should anything fire during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I am intrigued by the Thursday potential here in southern Manitoba. Latest GFS and GEM runs bring some nice dynamics into the region. The big question is instability. The cap will be a problem, especially south of the Canada/US border in ND and MN. Could be on the edge of the cap up here for some sort of an MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 If a storm can break the cap in the environment shown on thursday in northeast SD/southeast ND/western MN, its going to be big if the 0z NAM is correct, holy smokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The 2nd really looks impressive across the Dakotas..............if something can break the cap. We were going to start heading home on Thursday. Definitely torn about what to do, but trying to pray something breaks that cap seems like a pretty significant gamble at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 For what it's worth, New York and Boston now have a tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The 2nd really looks impressive across the Dakotas..............if something can break the cap. We were going to start heading home on Thursday. Definitely torn about what to do, but trying to pray something breaks that cap seems like a pretty significant gamble at this point. Significant tornado parameter of 8. Wow. This is Thursday night (03z Friday June 3rd) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Strong rotation near Hill City Kansas. Funnel cloud mentioned in tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 89 knot gate to gate wind shear northeast of Hill City Kansas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 tornado nearly on ground in that cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Looks like Springfield Massachusetts had more dangers than the midwest today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 WUUS53 KICT 020245 SVRICT KSC053-105-169-020345- /O.NEW.KICT.SV.W.0171.110602T0245Z-110602T0345Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 945 PM CDT WED JUN 1 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN ELLSWORTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS... * UNTIL 1045 PM CDT * AT 941 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WESTFALL...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINCOLN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SALINA...BROOKVILLE...KANOPOLIS STATE PARK...NEW CAMBRIA... SMOLAN...GLENDALE AND SALINA AIRPORT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH TORNADO LIKE WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED. MOBILE HOMES AND HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ARE ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE AND MAY BE OVERTURNED. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. && A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT THURSDAY MORNING FOR EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. LAT...LON 3908 9792 3896 9792 3896 9737 3880 9737 3858 9805 3892 9833 3910 9803 TIME...MOT...LOC 0246Z 322DEG 31KT 3885 9802 WIND...HAIL 100MPH 1.00IN $$ MCGUIRE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 The expected 100 mph winds near Salina have been revised down to 70 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 We had a great chase today on the storm near Elwood, Nebraska - produced an amazing wall with some of the most impressive rotation I have ever witnessed. Still baffled that it didn't produce a major tornado but the RFD was wrapping around and cutting off the circulation. It did produce several funnels and 2 brief gorgeous white rope tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Looking to tomorrow, I expect a few tornadoes in eastern North Dakota. The SPC "tornado ingredients" in the SREF goes up to 30 for one three-hour window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Looking to tomorrow, I expect a few tornadoes in eastern North Dakota. The SPC "tornado ingredients" in the SREF goes up to 30 for one three-hour window. I'm still unsure if we can break the cap and develop surface based storms, low level helicity, cape, lcl's and bulk shear all look good but a pretty hefty cap seems to stick around most of the afternoon and evening right below 700mb I'm leaning towards nothing going til after dark but we'll see. It sure is a great environment if something can break the cap around 6-7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I think the cap will go tomorrow and right now like ABR as a starting spot if I were chasing. The 0z NAM for the first time in a few runs had great signals of the cap breaking in the qpf field, H7 RH plots showing good ascent taking place and a hole in the 700mb temps in northeast SD into southeast ND at 0z tomorrow evening. I don't like though how its been trending with weaker mid-level winds where a few runs a good it had a solid area of 50kt winds at H5. The instability and juice is going to be there along with good directional shear and a monster LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1217 AM CDT THU JUN 02 2011 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY... ..SYNOPSIS DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS AS STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...MOVING THROUGH NV EARLY THIS MORNING...SHIFTS INTO ERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT TO STRETCH FROM WRN ND SWWD INTO FAR WRN NEB BY 00Z. THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...PLUS A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NERN MO NWWD INTO ND SHOULD PROVIDE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY. ALSO...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SRN APPALACHIANS AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION. ..NRN PLAINS SEWD INTO THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS IA WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION. WHILE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET BACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...REMNANT CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AIR SHOULD REINFORCE WARM FRONT. THOUGH STRONG DYNAMICAL FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING NEAR THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY LATE AFTERNOON. IN THE NRN PLAINS...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EWD MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STRONGLY WARMING TEMPERATURES OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S...BETWEEN COLD FRONT AND WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN MLCAPES TO RANGE FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. STRONG WIND FIELDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND VEERING WIND PROFILES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS AND THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN 03Z-06Z AS STORMS SHIFT EWD INTO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Thinking Saturday may have some minor potential here. Not really thinking about a tornado threat given rather weak low level flow and mainly unidirectional wind profiles, but lots of CAPE so anything that does go would have at least some brief severe potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Thinking Saturday may have some minor potential here. Not really thinking about a tornado threat given rather weak low level flow and mainly unidirectional wind profiles, but lots of CAPE so anything that does go would have at least some brief severe potential. with 40kts of 500mb flow in the area thanks to alittle s/w moving through you could get something mildly interesting given the amount of instability to work with, even though as you said, there isn't much of a tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 with 40kts of 500mb flow in the area thanks to alittle s/w moving through you could get something mildly interesting given the amount of instability to work with, even though as you said, there isn't much of a tornado threat. If we can get an organized MCS then perhaps there would be a somewhat enhanced wind threat. Haven't spent a great deal of time on the setup, and not like those things are always well modeled anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Tor watch now for St. Louis area till 9 p.m. CDT Thursday due to remnant MCV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Saskatchewan TORNADO WARNING ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:20 PM CST THURSDAY 2 JUNE 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= R.M. OF ARLINGTON INCLUDING DOLLARD =NEW= R.M. OF BONE CREEK INCLUDING SIMMIE AND SCOTSGUARD =NEW= R.M. OF GRASSY CREEK INCLUDING SHAUNAVON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UPGRADED TO TORNADO WARNING FOR: R.M. OF ARLINGTON INCLUDING DOLLARD R.M. OF GRASSY CREEK INCLUDING SHAUNAVON. ------------------------------ --------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== A WEAK TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED 2 KM NORTHWEST OF THE TOWN OF SHAUNAVON. THIS TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 More Saskatchewan TORNADO WARNING UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 3:30 PM CST THURSDAY 2 JUNE 2011. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= R.M. OF WISE CREEK INCLUDING CADILLAC AND ADMIRAL R.M. OF ARLINGTON INCLUDING DOLLARD R.M. OF BONE CREEK INCLUDING SIMMIE AND SCOTSGUARD R.M. OF GRASSY CREEK INCLUDING SHAUNAVON. ------------------------------ --------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== A WEAK TORNADO HAS BEEN REPORTED NORTHWEST OF THE TOWN OF SHAUNAVON HEADING TOWARDS SCOTSGUARD. THIS TORNADO IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 I am holding out hope for *maybe* something interesting in central IL on satuday, not expecting tornadoes, but maybe a nice slow moving supercell given we should have near 45kts WNW flow at H5 with 70 dew points and AOA 3000 j/kg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 For those that haven't seen it, here is a radar screen capture from just after the tornado went through Springfield, MA. Debris ball, 150 knots gate to gate, classic hook echo, video evidence of a wedge (just as it was entering Monson, MA). All evidence I've seen points to at least an EF3. And I think this officially makes 2011 the year of the debris ball. I can never remember seeing so many. My parents don't know the difference between a watch and warning but they can identify a debris ball on GR2Analyst when I stop by on the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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