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Convection on Memorial Day


TalcottWx

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NAM wants to break through the cap as early as 12pm in BOS.. which suggests its wrong or anything will be minimal because we won't be getting too unstable behind the MCS and there might be some subsidence..

Looks like instability may be higher the further east you go for whatever reason

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Not to bust any balls but the indices were never really that impressive today... In fact, CINH was pig and a foregone conclusion that after that dying MCS finished, backside meso NVA was going to mean exactly what happened - a few pancaked CU. Not really seeing where the NAM was breaking any caps

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The Convective temp today was like 92 or 93F

On the 6z GFS...

There was a temp cap at 3k or so until 11am, the minute that broke at 12pm the bufkit profile had precip falling and clouds filling the sky from 3-40kft...

It was obvious the NAM thought something was going to come through BOS..

We can't break a cap without hitting the convective temp?

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On the 6z GFS...

There was a temp cap at 3k or so until 11am, the minute that broke at 12pm the bufkit profile had precip falling and clouds filling the sky from 3-40kft...

It was obvious the NAM thought something was going to come through BOS..

We can't break a cap without hitting the convective temp?

Well you can if you have a source of lift,the strength of the lift needed all depends on the strength of the cap.

For today there really wans't no strong source of lift around so it was unlikely the cap would be broken. Plus, heights around 500mb rose as the day went on...never a good thing, so you had sinking air instead of rising air.

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Well you can if you have a source of lift,the strength of the lift needed all depends on the strength of the cap.

For today there really wans't no strong source of lift around so it was unlikely the cap would be broken. Plus, heights around 500mb rose as the day went on...never a good thing, so you had sinking air instead of rising air.

Well it was clear the boundaries werent enough to cause lift.. and the NAM was underestimating the effects of the MCS and drying aloft

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Plus there was probably some decent subsidence with the passing of the MCS and that can be really hard to overcome.

Yeah I think I put that in post 1 of the thread... I only posted this thread because of what the HRRR and NAM were all of a sudden trying to show.. then BOX jumped on for convection..

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