weathergy Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 TOR:CON for today: Forecast for Tuesday, May 31 IA east - 2 to 3 IL central - 2 to 3 IL north - 3 IN north - 3 KS extreme southeast - 2 MI lower - 5 MI upper - 2 to 3 MO northeast, east-central - 2 to 3 MO central, southwest - 2 NM extreme southeast - 2 to 3 OK northeast to southwest - 2 TX south panhandle - 3 WI east, south - 2 to 3 other areas - less than 2 Source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Could see much tree damage out of this, winds will be coming from a direction trees aren't used to. So you're trying to tell me storms/winds moving in from the west/southwest are unusual? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 TOR:CON for today: Source MI was a 6 yesterday. Illinois was a 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 So you're trying to tell me storms/winds moving in from the west/southwest are unusual? I think we probably see convective initiation in W. Michigan between 2-3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Initiation is occuring SE of Grand Rapids along the old outflow boundary. Based on the satellite and line of CB it's probably going to be our initial round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Initiation is occuring SE of Grand Rapids along the old outflow boundary. Based on the satellite and line of CB it's probably going to be our initial round. You beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 So you're trying to tell me storms/winds moving in from the west/southwest are unusual? My bad, I was under the impression that storms were moving in from the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 8000 CAPE in Ontario. I gotta write this down. This is once in a lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Looking as if detroit may be on the southern edge or miss the line of storms? Also with these derechos or line of storms, is there a more favorable area usually for brief tornadoes (northern/bottom of the line)? Obviously the cells that are along a warm front or well ahead of the cold front usually have the supercells more favorable for tornadoes, but was just more curious about lines of storms as those are usually the kind of severe events that affect us here in SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 ^^Its gonna be a close one for the Detroit area. If guidance and everything else stands solid. The west side of the State into the central part looks prime for damaging winds. Wait and see for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Looking as if detroit may be on the southern edge or miss the line of storms? Also with these derechos or line of storms, is there a more favorable area usually for brief tornadoes (northern/bottom of the line)? Obviously the cells that are along a warm front or well ahead of the cold front usually have the supercells more favorable for tornadoes, but was just more curious about lines of storms as those are usually the kind of severe events that affect us here in SE MI. the hrrr takes most of the storms south of michigan completely. As for any tornadoes, look for any break in the line or any bow/comma head, best place to find something other then a 30 second oversized gustnado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 also, these cells trying to go up near GRR are not going to have a easy time at it, since most of the best dynamics/cooling is still west of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 the hrrr takes most of the storms south of michigan completely. As for any tornadoes, look for any break in the line or any bow/comma head, best place to find something other then a 30 second oversized gustnado RUC has very little of anything going on later today in most of the risk area (except far nothern lower and the UP of Michigan), a major change from what it was showing earlier. Anything that does pop up on it struggles to organize and fizzles. EDIT: Isolated storms are starting to pop up under the extreme instability bubble in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Looking as if detroit may be on the southern edge or miss the line of storms? Also with these derechos or line of storms, is there a more favorable area usually for brief tornadoes (northern/bottom of the line)? Obviously the cells that are along a warm front or well ahead of the cold front usually have the supercells more favorable for tornadoes, but was just more curious about lines of storms as those are usually the kind of severe events that affect us here in SE MI. You would definitely want to see higher values of deep layer shear and helicity present in the area in order to expect several tornadoes. Right now, helicity is OK (a little low) and deep layer shear is 30 knots or less in parts of Michigan, which is a bit too low for strong supercells. Maybe the stronger upper level winds will advance eastward in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 You would definitely want to see higher values of deep layer shear and helicity present in the area in order to expect several tornadoes. Right now, helicity is OK (a little low) and deep layer shear is 30 knots or less in parts of Michigan, which is a bit too low for strong supercells. Maybe the stronger upper level winds will advance eastward in a few hours. Shear is expected to increase to 40-50 kts later this afternoon and this evening. Even then the DCAPE and steep low level lapse rates should make up for whatever's lacking in wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Severe T'Storm Watch in effect for NE Wisconsin, most of the UP and northern lower Michigan until 10 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Always something around here, stupid cloud debris from last night's derecho event this time. We are getting no rain or storms out of it, yet it's hurting our chances for later. If there is a severe weather hole this year, it's SE Wisconsin so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...MID MS VLY INTO IND AND SRN LWR MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 311759Z - 312030Z COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SE MB UPR LOW ATTM EXTENDS FROM FAR ERN IA SSW INTO CNTRL MO. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY E INTO WRN IL AND ERN MO THROUGH THE AFTN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS IN NEB AND THE DAKOTAS...IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS...ARE NOW OVER N CNTRL AND W CNTRL IL. THIS ACTIVITY HAS OFFSET SFC HEATING/MAINTAINED SIZABLE SFC-BASED CINH OVER THE NW HALF OF IL. AT THE SAME TIME...THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS HAVE SERVED TO MINIMIZE DEEP MIXING OVER THE REGION...WHILE DEEPER MIXING HAS OCCURRED E OF THE CLOUDS INTO PARTS OF IND/LWR MI. THIS HAS RESULTED IN AN AREA OF VEERED LOW LVL FLOW/DECREASED LOW LVL CONFLUENCE FROM ERN IL INTO NRN IND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ATTM SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW EXTENDING FROM N CNTRL IA NNW INTO NW MN. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE PIVOTING NE TOWARD THE UPR GRT LKS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING LIKELY TO OCCUR IN ITS WAKE FROM CNTRL IL WSWWD INTO MO. AFOREMENTIONED PRESENCE OF CLOUDS...THE SOMEWHAT WEAKENED/DISRUPTED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE FIELD...AND THE DEPARTURE OF STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT...CAST SOME UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE DETAILS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION FROM MO/IL INTO IND/SRN LWR MI LATER TODAY. NEVERTHELESS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT STRONG/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION...HEATING...WHILE MUTED ATTM...SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS MCS CLOUDS FURTHER DISSIPATE. GIVEN THIS SETUP...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO FORM IN MORE STRONGLY HEATING/CONFLUENT AREA ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN SW LWR MI...IT APPEARS THAT A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE REGION INCLUDING THE CHICAGO...MILWAUKEE...DETROIT...AND PERHAPS ST LOUIS METRO AREAS BY MID AFTN. ..CORFIDI.. 05/31/2011 ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX... DVN... LAT...LON 39248926 39029015 38949121 39649175 41079043 42628922 42968761 42678374 41938383 40278679 39248926 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Severe T'Storm Watch in effect for NE Wisconsin, most of the UP and northern lower Michigan until 10 PM. With a new one expected by mid-afternoon for Chicago/Grand Rapids/Detroit. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1040.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 8000 CAPE in Ontario. I gotta write this down. This is once in a lifetime. Think there is 8500 CAPE at northeast Georgian Bay area. Funny, the biggest tornado outbreak here was May 31st, 1985 We are forecast for 40% chance of thunderstorms today, that is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Think there is 8500 CAPE at northeast Georgian Bay area. Funny, the biggest tornado outbreak here was May 31st, 1985 We are forecast for 40% chance of thunderstorms today, that is all. You guys could get hit good by whatever blows out of Michigan tonight. Timing and storm mode will be key though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Storms starting to fire now along cold front from Marquette south to St. Louis area. Here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontonian Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 You guys could get hit good by whatever blows out of Michigan tonight. Timing and storm mode will be key though. Sometimes some initiation occurs just east of Lake Huron. If it does then timing will be key. Usually we just get scraps from Michigan in form of late night thundershowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 LOT... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 138 PM CDT LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA...WITH THE BEST PRESSURE RISES...AROUND 4 MB...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...FROM THE REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHTS MCS THAT MOVED ACROSS IOWA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CLOUD COVER/MCS REMNANTS HAS BEEN VERY EFFECTIVE IN LIMITING SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS MAY HELP TO LIMIT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF MY AREA. HOWEVER...THE THREAT CANNOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED OUT WEST AS IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF RECOVERY OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AS CLOUDS THIN OUT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY ALSO CONTINUES TO WITH REGARDS TO THE SEVERE THREAT INTO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A HIGHER THREAT THAN FARTHER WEST TOWARDS THE ROCKFORD AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH UPPER 60S DEW POINTS IS RESULTING IN SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. MORE IMPORTANTLY...THE LATEST RUC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG...WHERE THE CAP ALSO APPEARS TO BE MUCH WEAKER. THIS IS FARTHER SUPPORTED BY LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD INDICATING A WEAKENING A CAP. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND IT APPEARS TO BE QUITE POSSIBLE THAT AS THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN IOWA...MOVES EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO WI THAT THE ASSOCIATED HIGH FALLS WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH MID LEVEL COOLING TO ELIMINATE THE CAP ACROSS PORTIONS OF OF NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 45 KNOTS INDICATES A SEVERE WIND THREAT. DUE TO THE NEARLY PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR VECTORS...I WOULD EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Pretty narrow window left for Chicago but things are playing out more or less as anticipated. I'm pretty high confidence cells go up over the central/eastern portion of the area and then quickly organize into a line as they push out over the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Looking to be far enough east here in Michiana to be rockin and rollin like we did Sunday afternoon with potential svr straight line winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Sometimes some initiation occurs just east of Lake Huron. If it does then timing will be key. Usually we just get scraps from Michigan in form of late night thundershowers. There could also be the potential for the storms that form in MI/IL/WI/IN/OH to develop into a forward propagating MCS/derecho. SPC also mentioned the possiblity of this happening in their last update, saying they may have to upgrade the outlook in northern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Some pretty nice initiation going just west of Milwaukee. The question is, can these storms become severe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 cells over northcentral ill have gotten over the hump and are about to go off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.