wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 I think it's time to have a thread for May 31st, since it looks like we will have a cold front sweeping through the Upper Mississippi Valley and Western Great Lakes region. Whatever happens with this, happens. Might also be our warmest day of the year so far here along the western shore of Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 Btw, feel free to discuss tomorrow's severe weather as well if you don't think the May 27-30 Plains thread covers it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 I'm somewhat interested in this one, although I tend to think whatever comes through here on Tuesday Night will be in a weakening stage. Could be a very nice event for Eastern WI/Upper MI/Northern and Western Lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 Right now the frontal precip looks to pass Tuesday mid to late afternoon, ideal time for peak heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Well, the NAM has at least sped up things enough to make Tuesday interesting for my area. And with the high CAPE/good shear/steep low-level lapse rate environment, I fully expect to see a rather substantial damaging wind potential to my north/west on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 I wouldn't mind adding another event to my sig... DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2011 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO A PORTION OF THE MID MS VALLEY... ..SYNOPSIS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND GREAT BASIN REGIONS WILL EJECT INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY MONDAY BEFORE TURNING EWD THROUGH SERN CANADA AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY RESULTING IN DEAMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH SRN ONTARIO WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. SRN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. ..GREAT LAKES AREA INTO A PORTION OF THE MID MS VALLEY MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES WARM SECTOR WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. MODERATE /1500-2000 J/KG/ MLCAPE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. REMNANT EML COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY STRONG CAP...BUT DEEPER FORCING WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OCCUR ALONG GREAT LAKES PORTION OF FRONT AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH WI...UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI. THIS FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF COLD FRONT. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MODEST HIGH LEVEL WINDS IN WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY MAY TREND TOWARD OUTFLOW DOMINANCE WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 This potential screams damaging wind event, good 0-6km unidirectional shear along a cold front plowing right into an area with >3000 J/kg of SB cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 This potential screams damaging wind event, good 0-6km unidirectional shear along a cold front plowing right into an area with >3000 J/kg of SB cape. So are you thinking something similar to today, but a little further north? That seems in line with what is expected, although given the 30% probs and hatched area, an upgrade to mod risk seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 So are you thinking something similar to today, but a little further north? That seems in line with what is expected, although given the 30% probs and hatched area, an upgrade to mod risk seems likely. the event yesterday had nothing to do with a frontal passage, different animal altogether. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 This should be my best chance at severe storms this year so far in Central MI, can't wait to see what the 12z models show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 ...GREAT LAKES AREA INTO A PORTION OF THE MID MS VALLEY... MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL HAVE ADVECTED INTO THE GREAT LAKES WARM SECTOR WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. MODERATE /1500-2000 J/KG/ MLCAPE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS. REMNANT EML COULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATELY STRONG CAP...BUT DEEPER FORCING WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL OCCUR ALONG GREAT LAKES PORTION OF FRONT AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH WI...UPPER AND NRN LOWER MI. THIS FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF COLD FRONT. 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...MODEST HIGH LEVEL WINDS IN WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS ACTIVITY MAY TREND TOWARD OUTFLOW DOMINANCE WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SPC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Considering it's the NAM's simulated radar, this is rather impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Hatching trimmed and slight risk shifted a little east on the afternoon outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 I'll take it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Good mid level forcing tomorrow and what appears to be a weaker cap than today. There will be over 40 knots of bulk shear moving over the warm sector by afternoon, but it will be unidirectional. In addition, a large MCS appears to be developing over the High Plains right now which may limit destabilization in some areas, depending on how east it makes it overnight. So, with a weaker cap and shear that may even be more unidirectional than today destructive interference will likely reign supreme and storms will likely quickly grow upscale into a forward propigating MCS/squall line. Lapse rates will be moderatly steep, which along with moderate to strong instability (should clearing occur, which it likely will for at least a few hours late morning into the early afternoon over the upper MS Valley/western lakes), a likely linear storm mode, and an 80 knot mid-upper level flow should contribute to a nice wind threat. I'd expect a moderate risk upgrade perhaps over eastern WI/northern lower MI/upper MI should things destabilize properly. The tornado threat will probably be low, I can see the SPC not going higher than 5% on the tornado probabilities for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Good mid level forcing tomorrow and what appears to be a weaker cap than today. There will be over 40 knots of bulk shear moving over the warm sector by afternoon, but it will be unidirectional. In addition, a large MCS appears to be developing over the High Plains right now which may limit destabilization in some areas, depending on how east it makes it overnight. So, with a weaker cap and shear that may even be more unidirectional than today destructive interference will likely reign supreme and storms will likely quickly grow upscale into a forward propigating MCS/squall line. Lapse rates will be moderatly steep, which along with moderate to strong instability (should clearing occur, which it likely will for at least a few hours late morning into the early afternoon over the upper MS Valley/western lakes), a likely linear storm mode, and an 80 knot mid-upper level flow should contribute to a nice wind threat. I'd expect a moderate risk upgrade perhaps over eastern WI/northern lower MI/upper MI should things destabilize properly. The tornado threat will probably be low, I can see the SPC not going higher than 5% on the tornado probabilities for tomorrow. You know, it might be worth mentioning what happened on the morning of May 31st, 1998. That was when a powerful derecho plowed through much of the Northern Tier of the country, bringing up to 100 mph winds or greater along with it. Coincidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 You know, it might be worth mentioning what happened on the morning of May 31st, 1998. That was when a powerful derecho plowed through much of the Northern Tier of the country, bringing up to 100 mph winds or greater along with it. Coincidence? meh, not even close to the same setup. As far as cloud cover limiting sun, i doubt it, its 6 1/2 hours til sunshine again across most of the risk area tomorrow and the storms and clouds are still in western MN with a more NE movement then anything, plus the cap in place across the area. This is one of the few times across the area, upper great lakes, then i feel safe saying clouds SHOULD NOT be a factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 You know, it might be worth mentioning what happened on the morning of May 31st, 1998. That was when a powerful derecho plowed through much of the Northern Tier of the country, bringing up to 100 mph winds or greater along with it. Coincidence? Hmm, the derecho ongoing right now certainly has a very strong pressure rise/fall associated with it, and is moving through some moderate to strong instability for the next few hours with a 50 knot 850mb flow ahead of it. Some sub 60f dew points mixed down over SE MN, NE IA and far western WI this afternoon probably due to the strong cap. That might slow it down some in several hours, although there is some strong instability pretty far east near the warm front where the capping was weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Hmm, the derecho ongoing right now certainly has a very strong pressure rise/fall associated with it, and is moving through some moderate to strong instability for the next few hours with a 50 knot 850mb flow ahead of it. Some sub 60f dew points mixed down over SE MN, NE IA and far western WI this afternoon probably due to the strong cap. That might slow it down some in several hours, although there is some strong instability pretty far east near the warm front where the capping was weaker. I just wanted to stir up the dramatic element. In no way am I expecting something similar, but if it happened, it would be very fitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I just wanted to stir up the dramatic element. In no way am I expecting something similar, but if it happened, it would be very fitting. My guess is it will weaken over eastern MN/central IA but I've been wrong before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Looking at the most recent RUC runs, they all seem to form a line of t'storms with the cold front just as it approaches Lake Michigan. Cutting it close, but we should be getting the storms if the RUC is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2011 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF LOWER MI AS WELL AS ERN UPPER MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN IL/WI EWD INTO MI...NRN IND AND NWRN OH... ..SYNOPSIS AN UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT EJECTS NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY WITH AN 80-90 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM SRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO WITH A RELATIVELY SHARP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS MN INTO NRN MO DURING THE MORNING...WEAKENING A BIT AS IT LIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TO THE W...A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST...WITH A BROAD AREA OF SWLY FLOW FROM CA INTO THE GREAT BASIN. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIE ROUGHLY FROM ERN WA INTO NRN NV. ..WI/MI AND NRN IL/IND/OH WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DUE TO MIXING AND ALSO A SLIGHT WEAKENING/LIFTING OUT OF THE SURFACE LOW TO THE N. DESPITE THIS...DEEP LAYER FLOW FIELDS WILL BE STRONG AND FAVOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN UPPER MI AND CNTRL WI BY MIDDAY AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION AS THEY MOVE ACROSS NRN IL...NRN IND...AND EWD ACROSS LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. MIXED STORM MODES MAY OCCUR...WITH FAST MOVING LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY. WITH TIME...THE DOMINANT STORM MODE SHOULD BE QUASI-LINEAR WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WINDS. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK EFFECTIVE SRH...AS WELL AS LINEAR STORM MODE WITH TIME. ..MO/OK/TX A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH ROUGHLY FROM CNTRL MO INTO OK AND NWRN TX THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY PRESENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CIN WILL ERODE DURING THE DAY...OVERALL FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER TX WHERE UPPER HEIGHT RISES WILL OCCUR. STILL...STRONG HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE ENTIRE ZONE. PULSE TO MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE MARGINAL HAIL/WIND ARE MOST LIKELY. AFTER 00Z...A SLY LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WHICH WILL BRING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY NWD. THIS MAY HELP FORCE SOME WEAK ACTIVITY INTO SRN KS...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT CIN AND DEGREE OF FORCING CURRENT LIMIT SEVERE PROBABILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Looking at the most recent RUC runs, they all seem to form a line of t'storms with the cold front just as it approaches Lake Michigan. Cutting it close, but we should be getting the storms if the RUC is correct. looking forward to some nice shots of the towers over the lake. Few things more photogenic than tower to the east over the lake with a low sitting sun to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Central Lower Michigan could be looking at one heck of a damaging wind event latter today. Going to be very interesting watching this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 looking forward to some nice shots of the towers over the lake. Few things more photogenic than tower to the east over the lake with a low sitting sun to the west. Yeah, it's nice that this should be coming through mid to late afternoon, unlike most events around here that come around or after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Yeah, it's nice that this should be coming through mid to late afternoon, unlike most events around here that come around or after sunset. Don't get too jacked, timing is looking less than ideal for this side of the lake, visible shows clouds moving in pretty soon, so passage will be well before peak heating. http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~tomw/wisgifloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 RUC is keeping sfc winds more backed across MI this afternoon/evening. If that happens, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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