Hoosier Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Looking for thoughtful input from mets/vets. After years of observing and some thinking, I have come to believe that much of the talk about screw zones is overblown. Getting hit by a marginal strong/severe storm (say 50 mph winds/small hail) is one thing but it's just not easy for your house to get hit by higher end severe weather. Think about the usually small size of the dangerous part of a supercell...it takes up a very narrow swath in relation to the landmass. In higher coverage events like bow echoes/derechos, the entire line may produce low end severe winds but the high-end severe winds typically occur in smaller pockets. I think localized terrain effects/proximity to water can create legit screw zones in some instances. I've also read some interesting research that suggests storms may intensify as they cross through urban settings (Indianapolis was used in the study) but other than that, I really think it's luck of the draw. What do you guys think? I'd be particularly interested in any studies that attempt to explain local max/min in severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 My 2 cents: 98% psychology, 1.9% luck of timing (i.e. living in a location during years that fell within meager severe wx years), 0.1% real. The real ones are ones that Hoosier mentioned, plus some locations actually do get hammered more due to real meteorological reasons, and if you live just outside that zone you *feel* like you get screwed more than everyone else. Food for thought- when you actually get hammered and someone else gets screwed, do you realize and feel for locations that are getting screwed? If you don't, you cannot objectively weigh the screwage you get relative to areas around you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 The only ones who are screwed are the ones who deal with the damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I think a large part of it has to do with the "coverage" severe weather has these days. It is always happening somewhere in the US, and it seems that someone else is always experiencing it. Moreover, the large number of storm chasers these days further perpetuate the belief that severe convection is something common due to the power of social media and the internet. In reality, of course, even most storm chasers will fail a large majority of the time even when they are actually seeking convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 The only ones who are screwed are the ones who deal with the damage. Agreed. This is why the complaining and whining about the lack of severe weather needs to end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Agreed. This is why the complaining and whining about the lack of severe weather needs to end. EXACTLY. After the severe season we've had? Whining about a severe thunderstorm watch busting, is pretty childish. Especially when people are dying out in Missouri at the same time. I love tracking/spotting severe storms, tornadoes, etc. But if I didn't see another severe storm for the rest of the year, I'd be happy. And yes, even in my own backyard. I put the ones who think they are in a screw zone, in the same group as some around here, who think they have a shield over them, or always get split, and that's why they don't get severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Sure hope someone in Joplin MO isn't reading this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Agreed. This is why the complaining and whining about the lack of severe weather needs to end. I wonder how many of those complaining have experienced a really severe storm, like with tennis-ball sized hail being driven by 90 MPH winds or a derecho that produces an EF2 tornado closeby or a nearby supercell that produces eight tornadoes. Unfortunately, we've had all of the above here in the past 8 years (with the wind-driven hail being something I personally experienced at home). And obviously none of that can come close to comparing to what JoMo just went through. As fascinated as I am with severe weather, and as much as I like tracking it, I'd just as rather it be 1000 miles away than right on top of me. Hell, I was actually really nervous earlier today when that bow was approaching. I've seen way too much significant damage way too close by the last few years (8 significant EF2-EF3 tornadoes in the past 3 years within 40 miles of my house, including one I just surveyed this week). Then again, I live in a statistically hot area for severe activity, so my view may be a bit jaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Looking for thoughtful input from mets/vets. After years of observing and some thinking, I have come to believe that much of the talk about screw zones is overblown. Getting hit by a marginal strong/severe storm (say 50 mph winds/small hail) is one thing but it's just not easy for your house to get hit by higher end severe weather. Think about the usually small size of the dangerous part of a supercell...it takes up a very narrow swath in relation to the landmass. In higher coverage events like bow echoes/derechos, the entire line may produce low end severe winds but the high-end severe winds typically occur in smaller pockets. I think localized terrain effects/proximity to water can create legit screw zones in some instances. I've also read some interesting research that suggests storms may intensify as they cross through urban settings (Indianapolis was used in the study) but other than that, I really think it's luck of the draw. What do you guys think? I'd be particularly interested in any studies that attempt to explain local max/min in severe weather. you pretty much hit the nail on the head, these screw zones are mostly in the minds of those who think they live in one. Of course, living next to a body of water can cause legit decrease in svr. weather, mainly during the spring when the water is cold, but usually those are marginal events to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Sure hope someone in Joplin MO isn't reading this thread. Hi. I still like snowstorms, but I'm done with severe weather and have been since the Picher, OK tornado several years ago. Ice storms suck too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Hi. I still like snowstorms, but I'm done with severe weather and have been since the Picher, OK tornado several years ago. Ice storms suck too. I was on a 10-day convective field study that just got back last Monday. We drove through Picher at dusk on night 2. So surreal. We drove right past Joplin too that day on I-44 and stayed in Miami that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 38 yrs living in MKE county without ever having a power outage for 2 days. Living in West Allis for 5 yrs was "King" if there was one for me. West Allis routinely schooled all my other living locations in severe and winter season.. I think they must just be far enough inland where the lake doesn't effect them in severe season as much but yet in winter they sit in a decent spot to get LES and escape dry air off the lake. My time is coming and I'll **** myself when it finally happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Hi. I still like snowstorms, but I'm done with severe weather and have been since the Picher, OK tornado several years ago. Ice storms suck too. I still remember when you spoke of the Picher, OK tornado and how it affected you. I don't blame you for being done with severe weather not to mention all the insane ice storms you get down there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Hi. I still like snowstorms, but I'm done with severe weather and have been since the Picher, OK tornado several years ago. Ice storms suck too. Dudeeeeeee! OMG, what a relief to see your name.. I hope you and all your loved ones and friends in the area all came out unharmed physically.. It's still hard to get the images of everything out of ones head. My wifes work has two offices down there and we're still waiting to hear the details.. If there is anything you guys need, plz let me know as we're going to be running a few fund raisers for the area but are not 100% sure where the best place to direct the raised funds to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 The only ones who are screwed are the ones who deal with the damage. agreed totally, I mean yes even I can get grumpy when we bust on a watch but i agree it's nothing like having an EF 5 blow through and destroy a good portion of your city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 I still remember when you spoke of the Picker, OK tornado and how it affected you. I don't blame you for being done with severe weather not to mention all the insane ice storms you get down there as well. Yeah, the Picher, OK tornado had been on the ground and was approaching Joplin. The NWS was warning it and I was watching it on TV. I was scared with that one. I wasn't as scared with the EF-5 at the time because it had not touched down yet and I thought it was elevated as they weren't reporting it as producing. It wasn't until I heard the rumble that I had a moment of panic but adrenaline kicked in. As I waited and listened in the closet, it was the longest minute or so ever. I was expecting to hear windows being blown out and the walls to start collapsing and the roof to disappear but that didn't happen so I thought it was just a really weak tornado or just a downdraft or something since everything was pointed from north to south. I had no idea about the destruction it was causing until I turned on the radio to see what had come through which was probably 10 minutes or so after the tornado had passed through. There was also some missing information on the base velocity just west of here so I couldn't see the couplet until the next scan, and by that time it was right over me. I almost always use Tulsa radar when storms approach but I used Springfield this time and I'll probably be using Tulsa from now on, heh. On Tues night we had more severe weather and a tornado warning, I was panicky with that as there was rolling thunder which mimicked the sound I heard as the tornado approached. Friday I guess it was, we had elevated thunderstorms, I had to make sure we didn't have any surface instability since I now apparently think everything is going to produce a tornado. :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Dudeeeeeee! OMG, what a relief to see your name.. I hope you and all your loved ones and friends in the area all came out unharmed physically.. It's still hard to get the images of everything out of ones head. My wifes work has two offices down there and we're still waiting to hear the details.. If there is anything you guys need, plz let me know as we're going to be running a few fund raisers for the area but are not 100% sure where the best place to direct the raised funds to. Leveled houses are just about 3 blocks away. One of my aunts lost her mother, another aunt lost her son. I've been posting in the thread on the main weather forum. Got some pictures and stuff up. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/18858-devastating-tornado-strikes-joplin-missouri/page__st__560 Here's a list of charities I've found online: http://nonprofit.about.com/b/2011/05/24/how-to-help-tornado-survivors-in-joplin-mo.htm Some areas are overflowing with water and food and clothing and stuff. I don't know what's going to be needed to rebuild yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Sure hope someone in Joplin MO isn't reading this thread. + 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Dudeeeeeee! OMG, what a relief to see your name.. I hope you and all your loved ones and friends in the area all came out unharmed physically.. It's still hard to get the images of everything out of ones head. My wifes work has two offices down there and we're still waiting to hear the details.. If there is anything you guys need, plz let me know as we're going to be running a few fund raisers for the area but are not 100% sure where the best place to direct the raised funds to. Leveled houses are just about 3 blocks away. One of my aunts lost her mother, another aunt lost her son. I've been posting in the thread on the main weather forum. Got some pictures and stuff up. http://www.americanw...i/page__st__560 Here's a list of charities I've found online: http://nonprofit.abo...n-joplin-mo.htm Some areas are overflowing with water and food and clothing and stuff. I don't know what's going to be needed to rebuild yet. one of the main ones for $$$ donations for Joplin is Convoy of Hope based out of Springfield, I highly doubt it wouldn't be legit if the Cardinals is using them as their primary fundraising source for Joplin relief.. https://donate.convoyofhope.org/sslpage.aspx?pid=443 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 They don't exist. True severe weather is very localized, so being a severe weather lover is essentially a losing proposition unless you go storm chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Leveled houses are just about 3 blocks away. One of my aunts lost her mother, another aunt lost her son. I've been posting in the thread on the main weather forum. Got some pictures and stuff up. http://www.americanw...i/page__st__560 Here's a list of charities I've found online: http://nonprofit.abo...n-joplin-mo.htm Some areas are overflowing with water and food and clothing and stuff. I don't know what's going to be needed to rebuild yet. O, wow.. so, so sorry to hear of the losses to you family. Thanks for the link to where you have been posting.. I've been away this weekend and would never have found it.. This side of the forum is cocked and more proof of it. Thanks for the 2nd link and to the j-hampster for his. I will pass those links a long and I'll in keep in check with the thread on the main forum.. Personally, I would love to help your family out with anything we could but that might be easier said than done when dealing with the higher up.. Still... if your family needs anything, I would like to focus some attention towards that.. so plz, leave me a messenger if there is something specific we could put some of the fund raising too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 38 yrs living in MKE county without ever having a power outage for 2 days. Living in West Allis for 5 yrs was "King" if there was one for me. West Allis routinely schooled all my other living locations in severe and winter season.. I think they must just be far enough inland where the lake doesn't effect them in severe season as much but yet in winter they sit in a decent spot to get LES and escape dry air off the lake. My time is coming and I'll **** myself when it finally happens. I'm surprised. Sure, living in one of the inner suburbs like Wauwatosa or West Allis helps slightly in the snow department, I don't think the difference is substantial. As for severe, it seems near the airport is the hot spot within the county; it's where most of the tornadoes seem to pass by if they reach the county. This season hasn't produced much severe weather, but it is pretty normal for the Upper Midwest otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 I'm surprised. Sure, living in one of the inner suburbs like Wauwatosa or West Allis helps slightly in the snow department, I don't think the difference is substantial. As for severe, it seems near the airport is the hot spot within the county; it's where most of the tornadoes seem to pass by if they reach the county. This season hasn't produced much severe weather, but it is pretty normal for the Upper Midwest otherwise. in 07/08 it was a 15-20+" snow differential in west allis and almost every other surrounding reporting station in any direction Guess I'm jut the unlucky one living close to the airport that yr or else they measure good for ****, can't be Airport area did have their moment in glory not to long ago when i wasn't living here with a tornado skirting the airport. But to say the airport is the hotspot to severe weather within the county seems way off base. Maybe it's not tho seeing how hard it is to get one in this county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 in 07/08 it was a 15-20+" snow differential in west allis and almost every other surrounding reporting station in any direction Guess I'm jut the unlucky one living close to the airport that yr or else they measure good for ****, can't be Airport area did have their moment in glory not to long ago when i wasn't living here with a tornado skirting the airport. But to say the airport is the hotspot to severe weather within the county seems way off base. Maybe it's not tho seeing how hard it is to get one in this county. It's funny because as I was typing my last post I thought about that fluke snow map and the small blotch of probably 110"+ snows in central Milwaukee County. Occasionally there are exceptions, but normally the difference would have to be in the single digits of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 O, wow.. so, so sorry to hear of the losses to you family. Thanks for the link to where you have been posting.. I've been away this weekend and would never have found it.. This side of the forum is cocked and more proof of it. Thanks for the 2nd link and to the j-hampster for his. I will pass those links a long and I'll in keep in check with the thread on the main forum.. Personally, I would love to help your family out with anything we could but that might be easier said than done when dealing with the higher up.. Still... if your family needs anything, I would like to focus some attention towards that.. so plz, leave me a messenger if there is something specific we could put some of the fund raising too. Ah, we're fine. It missed us for the most part, a bit of inflow shingle damage but other than that everything is fine. Some families don't have anything left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 No such thing as severe screw zones, eventually your number will be called if you live in an area that regularly experiences severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gusfront Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 I can agree with what JoMo says and also Spartyon says on page 1 or the thread . Since I am here in Joplin too, I am done with the severe stuff but also hate ice storms but like the snow , and for sure I was thinking that the elevated stuff that came through would drop a spout myself . But I guess that what it will be like for awhile now for most residents of Joplin . But since I have been working with the early on recovery of this storm, and seeing things nobody should have to witness . If you wanna talk about a screw zone ,well, this is it . Lots of people got screwed , like lives screwed up permanently and screwed out of loved ones being taken away from them . Dismemberments etc. That a screw zone dont friggin whine and cry that you dont get severe weather around you (boof%$#@hoo) come and get some of our severe weather you can have all of it you want .... sorry about the rant as I have been helping people since last sunday night and this stuff is hitting hard now the reality ofit ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 No such thing as severe screw zones, eventually your number will be called if you live in an area that regularly experiences severe weather. That's pretty much it. There are areas that are climatologically favored for severe weather, but are the ones that aren't then screw zones? Of course not, because statistically speaking they shouldn't be receiving frequent severe weather. The fact of the matter is that it only takes one event to change that perspective. Huntington Beach, CA can get a tornado. Worcester, MA can get an F4. I don't think residents of either location would consider themselves living in a severe weather hotbed. These are highly localized events, but they can occur anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 That's pretty much it. There are areas that are climatologically favored for severe weather, but are the ones that aren't then screw zones? Of course not, because statistically speaking they shouldn't be receiving frequent severe weather. The fact of the matter is that it only takes one event to change that perspective. Huntington Beach, CA can get a tornado. Worcester, MA can get an F4. I don't think residents of either location would consider themselves living in a severe weather hotbed. These are highly localized events, but they can occur anywhere. Yeah the whole basis of this thread is because of the thought that Metro Detroit is a screwzone, I hate to break it to some people but every single county in the Metro area has had a F-4 before except for Washtenaw. Genesee, Lapeer, Lenawee, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland. St Clair and Wayne have all had F-4 or greater, as has Essex County in Ontario. With Genesee, Lapeer, St Clair and Essex all having F-5s. So to say that the SEMI area is a screw zone just tells me that when you complain you don't know climatology. This not even counting into the fact how many MCSs or Derechos have slammed this area before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Yeah the whole basis of this thread is because of the thought that Metro Detroit is a screwzone, I hate to break it to some people but every single county in the Metro area has had a F-4 before except for Washtenaw. Genesee, Lapeer, Lenawee, Macomb, Monroe, Oakland. St Clair and Wayne have all had F-4 or greater, as has Essex County in Ontario. With Genesee, Lapeer, St Clair and Essex all having F-5s. So to say that the SEMI area is a screw zone just tells me that when you complain you don't know climatology. This not even counting into the fact how many MCSs or Derechos have slammed this area before. I grew up in one of those supposed screw zones in Rhode Island. Storms always seemed to split around my home town. Well one, it was Rhode Island, not exactly a severe weather hotbed. And two, storms had to cross Narragansett Bay (a very stable influence) to reach my town. The storm split likely came from high CAPE over the areas northwest of Providence, and the relative maximum over a large island to the southwest of town in the middle of the bay. Yet one week before I moved to Iowa, I snapped the picture in my avatar from my town beach. Twenty years of feeling left out of the party were taken care of in those few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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