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Severe Weather 6/1/2011 obs & disco


Thunder Road

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Slight is a good call.. a big, understated caveat this AM is the fog/marine layer in NJ that may screw them over if the midday progs for storm development does occur.

PA is probably more under the gun today despite the 'early' timing...still, you can get some nasty severe events around midday in this part of the world.

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Slight is a good call.. a big, understated caveat this AM is the fog/marine layer in NJ that may screw them over if the midday progs for storm development does occur.

PA is probably more under the gun today despite the 'early' timing...still, you can get some nasty severe events around midday in this part of the world.

Synoptically, this is one of them days where that could work to our benefit. More discrete cells/supercells could form. But thermos are absolutely primed right now, and any morning sun will only add like that. Like I mentioned before, these types of set ups, after these heateaves, tend to be viscous. Especially with dp's being forecasted

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Synoptically, this is one of them days where that could work to our benefit. More discrete cells/supercells could form. But thermos are absolutely primed right now, and any morning sun will only add like that. Like I mentioned before, these types of set ups, after these heateaves, tend to be viscous. Especially with dp's being forecasted

One thing I've learned about severe weather prediction is that "on paper" and "reality" are two completely different things. On paper can look incredible but not verify because of stable air/marine influence, bad surface wind component (west wind), too much wind aloft (that happened in early May with another "on paper" good day), or the cap just not able to break. There are also times when severe potential may suck on paper but then you get a squall line to sweep through and nail everyone. Severe wx prediction is not clear cut by any stretch.

With that said, today looks pretty good for PA regardless of timing...I think if the storms are too early in development on our side of the river they may fizzle somewhat in NJ because of the stable environment from the marine layer. I'm not saying will...just wouldn't be surprised if they don't stay severe to the coast.

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With that said, today looks pretty good for PA regardless of timing...I think if the storms are too early in development on our side of the river they may fizzle somewhat in NJ because of the stable environment from the marine layer. I'm not saying will...just wouldn't be surprised if they don't stay severe to the coast.

My suspicion is that we'll have a good squall line (with an embedded bow or two) come through early this afternoon with isolated wind reports in SEPA. Hard to see how the storm mode will be supercellular with this set up. Tend to agree with you re: marine layer that set up in Jersey overnight, as well.

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My suspicion is that we'll have a good squall line (with an embedded bow or two) come through early this afternoon with isolated wind reports in SEPA. Hard to see how the storm mode will be supercellular with this set up. Tend to agree with you re: marine layer that set up in Jersey overnight, as well.

What do you consider early?

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Good luck with your severe today. I'm in Dominican republic enjoying a much needed vacation. With that being said nepa does not need anymore severe weather. My friends car was totaled in lansford last week along with thousands of others. Hope you all are safe up there!!!

Awesome! Enjoy! Loved DR when I visited.

Big cell firing up west of AVP. Looks nasty!

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1630 update increases the hail risk to 30%

Wind:

post-1820-0-71066400-1306945526.gif

Hail:

post-1820-0-00915600-1306945534.gif

also a new MD for N NJ and points NE

A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NRN NJ NNEWD ACROSS SE NY INTO SRN AND CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1048.html

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL LUZERNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 145 PM EDT.

* AT 1237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

SLOCUM...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

SUGAR NOTCH AND PRESTON BY 1252 PM EDT...

FAIRVIEW HGTS AND MOUNTAIN TOP BY 1254 PM EDT...

PENOBSCOT BY 1256 PM EDT...

BEAR CREEK BY 108 PM EDT...

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The fact that the trough is lagging a bit is "good" for those who want severe to be a bit more widespread. Things were supposed to be firing around midday on modeling. It's just starting to go now...a lil slower than advertised. Could get really nasty in an hour or two in Central PA.

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