phlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Slight is a good call.. a big, understated caveat this AM is the fog/marine layer in NJ that may screw them over if the midday progs for storm development does occur. PA is probably more under the gun today despite the 'early' timing...still, you can get some nasty severe events around midday in this part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Slight is a good call.. a big, understated caveat this AM is the fog/marine layer in NJ that may screw them over if the midday progs for storm development does occur. PA is probably more under the gun today despite the 'early' timing...still, you can get some nasty severe events around midday in this part of the world. Synoptically, this is one of them days where that could work to our benefit. More discrete cells/supercells could form. But thermos are absolutely primed right now, and any morning sun will only add like that. Like I mentioned before, these types of set ups, after these heateaves, tend to be viscous. Especially with dp's being forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Synoptically, this is one of them days where that could work to our benefit. More discrete cells/supercells could form. But thermos are absolutely primed right now, and any morning sun will only add like that. Like I mentioned before, these types of set ups, after these heateaves, tend to be viscous. Especially with dp's being forecasted One thing I've learned about severe weather prediction is that "on paper" and "reality" are two completely different things. On paper can look incredible but not verify because of stable air/marine influence, bad surface wind component (west wind), too much wind aloft (that happened in early May with another "on paper" good day), or the cap just not able to break. There are also times when severe potential may suck on paper but then you get a squall line to sweep through and nail everyone. Severe wx prediction is not clear cut by any stretch. With that said, today looks pretty good for PA regardless of timing...I think if the storms are too early in development on our side of the river they may fizzle somewhat in NJ because of the stable environment from the marine layer. I'm not saying will...just wouldn't be surprised if they don't stay severe to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 With that said, today looks pretty good for PA regardless of timing...I think if the storms are too early in development on our side of the river they may fizzle somewhat in NJ because of the stable environment from the marine layer. I'm not saying will...just wouldn't be surprised if they don't stay severe to the coast. My suspicion is that we'll have a good squall line (with an embedded bow or two) come through early this afternoon with isolated wind reports in SEPA. Hard to see how the storm mode will be supercellular with this set up. Tend to agree with you re: marine layer that set up in Jersey overnight, as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 My suspicion is that we'll have a good squall line (with an embedded bow or two) come through early this afternoon with isolated wind reports in SEPA. Hard to see how the storm mode will be supercellular with this set up. Tend to agree with you re: marine layer that set up in Jersey overnight, as well. What do you consider early? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 What do you consider early? 1-3p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParanormalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 My one fear is that yesterday everything was in Michigan and northward. While I expect some storms around, I'm not sold on the squall line all the way into the southern part of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 71/70 here, sure is ripe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 the 1 thing i am worried about, is not being able to break the cap. We'll see how things go. the EML is pretty solid. Ruc does have convection around us later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 76.2/71 at 8:34am with bight sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 79.2/70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 85.6/75 with hazy sunshine and a light SW wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 :thumbsup: this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Timing looks good today. Capped until mid-afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 :thumbsup: this: Could be my lucky break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Good luck with your severe today. I'm in Dominican republic enjoying a much needed vacation. With that being said nepa does not need anymore severe weather. My friends car was totaled in lansford last week along with thousands of others. Hope you all are safe up there!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Thanks JIm. Enjoy your Vaca. i think it might be more tropical feeling up here than down there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 89.0/77 at 12:00 PNE is only reporting 73 for a DP...anyone else reporting higher like I am? (It's funny that PNE is "only" reporting 73) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Good luck with your severe today. I'm in Dominican republic enjoying a much needed vacation. With that being said nepa does not need anymore severe weather. My friends car was totaled in lansford last week along with thousands of others. Hope you all are safe up there!!! Awesome! Enjoy! Loved DR when I visited. Big cell firing up west of AVP. Looks nasty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 89.0/77 at 12:00 PNE is only reporting 73 for a DP...anyone else reporting higher like I am? (It's funny that PNE is "only" reporting 73) I have 77 as well, but I think it has a high bias but 1-2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 FYI I changed the thread title to include obs since we're getting close to the event now. And since this is an obs thread... 90.5/77 with clear skies and a light SW wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 1630 update increases the hail risk to 30% Wind: Hail: also a new MD for N NJ and points NE A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NRN NJ NNEWD ACROSS SE NY INTO SRN AND CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1048.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL LUZERNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA... * UNTIL 145 PM EDT. * AT 1237 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SLOCUM...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... SUGAR NOTCH AND PRESTON BY 1252 PM EDT... FAIRVIEW HGTS AND MOUNTAIN TOP BY 1254 PM EDT... PENOBSCOT BY 1256 PM EDT... BEAR CREEK BY 108 PM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Starting to get some nice build-ups to the west. May get a few early PM storms in SE Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yeah, storms firing in Juniata and Perry counties. Should be perfectly timed for us. The EML did it's job and now the area should explode with convection like a bomb going off. The storms are running into 5500-6000 J/kg of CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Tornado Watch until 8 PM for most of the area (except extreme SNJ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lab94 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The fact that the trough is lagging a bit is "good" for those who want severe to be a bit more widespread. Things were supposed to be firing around midday on modeling. It's just starting to go now...a lil slower than advertised. Could get really nasty in an hour or two in Central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 There's a cell near MDT that's really firing up...lee trough really starting to cook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 That cell near MDT just popped a warning until 2:45 for Dauphin, most of Lebanon County, and Northern Lanco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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