tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 Great stuff tombo..whew, i think its time to start tracking that next threat.. Does anyone know if the euro ens agree with the op long range? they wont be out for another hr or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That looks like a HECS setup...looks like a la nina version of 2/5/10 I just wish it wasnt so far out in time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I just got done doing the NYC metro wx blog forecast. All i can say is with confidence that the trof over the NE will stay as long as the block over greenland stays. Some cold times ahead for our area and the MOS will bust high in this setup. mid 40s? no way. 30s for sure. Anything after the 7-8 day range is a crap shoot and the guidance are split on. I try not to look at anything at 10+ days. Its the thing of nightmares. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 I just got done doing the NYC metro wx blog forecast. All i can say is with confidence that the trof over the NE will stay as long as the block over greenland stays. Some cold times ahead for our area and the MOS will bust high in this setup. mid 40s? no way. 30s for sure. Anything after the 7-8 day range is a crap shoot and the guidance are split on. I try not to look at anything at 10+ days. Its the thing of nightmares. LOL. Do you think there is a link between snowy weather in western europe and similar conditions in eastern north america? Ive noticed that its happened several times in the past that the two were linked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Do you think there is a link between snowy weather in western europe and similar conditions in eastern north america? Ive noticed that its happened several times in the past that the two were linked. There generally should be given western Europe usually only manages a cold/snowy pattern during a -NAO....its more likely to correlate to a cold pattern in eastern NA than necessarily a snowy one...the winter of 1990-91 was brutal in the U.K. however it was relatively mild in the eastern U.S....this despite a +NAO....that was one of the only instances I can think of where Europe managed that sort of pattern with nothing really to speak of in the eastern U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 10$ says the 12z shows the complete opposite? Euro has been all over the place. SO as nice as this is to look at, ill take it with a grain of salt. With so many pac energies, gonna see a wide range of solutions. Thanks earthlight GFS has done a better job lately. It was right about the threats for Sunday and next week not coming together for us, while the Euro was offering more hope. So I definitely won't get excited about this threat the Euro is showing, especially since it's in fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 GFS has done a better job lately. It was right about the threats for Sunday and next week not coming together for us, while the Euro was offering more hope. So I definitely won't get excited about this threat the Euro is showing, especially since it's in fantasy range. Obviously don't have time to read the entire thread this morning due to heading off for work, but the headline grabber for me is something we seem to see all the time. The "big threat" always seems to be 10 days away. It's been that way the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Obviously don't have time to read the entire thread this morning due to heading off for work, but the headline grabber for me is something we seem to see all the time. The "big threat" always seems to be 10 days away. It's been that way the past few years. When was the last time a big warmup was forecast 10 days into the future and we got slammed by a big snowstorm instead? Why doesnt that happen as often as the other way around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 6z GFS agrees with the Euro about a possible MECS now, but it's a little later. It's so far out that anything could happen, but glad to see threats returning on both models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 When was the last time a big warmup was forecast 10 days into the future and we got slammed by a big snowstorm instead? Why doesnt that happen as often as the other way around? The GFS kept trying to break down the pattern from around day 10 onward in 2002-2003 and 2003-2004 prior to February, at some points it was even dumping troughs into the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Obviously don't have time to read the entire thread this morning due to heading off for work, but the headline grabber for me is something we seem to see all the time. The "big threat" always seems to be 10 days away. It's been that way the past few years. Are you kidding?!?!? We just had three big ones last meteorological winter, actually 4 I'm forgetting the big retrograding storm that gave NYC 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Obviously can't take any model serious @ 240 HRS, but at least the 00z/6z models give us something to look forward too possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 so the euro flips again? I thought everyone was ready to slice there wrists after the 12 z run with no cold air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Are you kidding?!?!? We just had three big ones last meteorological winter, actually 4 I'm forgetting the big retrograding storm that gave NYC 20" no, hes saying theres always a 10 day threat shown by the models every week. Until something shows up under the 100 hr range i dont really care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Jb is on board of course.he has backed off the threat for next week and has jumped on the EURO GFS threat for NEXT weekend or early part of the week after. Compares threat to 96 and 92 blizzards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Jb is on board of course.he has backed off the threat for next week and has jumped on the EURO GFS threat for NEXT weekend or early part of the week after. Compares threat to 96 and 92 blizzards How many day 10 threats must people see vanish to stop believe in that crap? Day10 threats are like Santa Claus and unicorns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nynjpaweather Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 How many day 10 threats must people see vanish to stop believe in that crap? Day10 threats are like Santa Claus and unicorns. Don't you mess with Santa Claus! But I get your point. We need to keep an eye on five days at a time. Is there a threat? Yes, and the potential is a reasonable solution, however I would not be getting excited until the threat is at least under 100. Further, I don't like to talk down on meteorologist, but IF JB actually compared the threat 10 days out to the 96 blizzard than that is HIGHLY irresponsible, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Jb is on board of course.he has backed off the threat for next week and has jumped on the EURO GFS threat for NEXT weekend or early part of the week after. Compares threat to 96 and 92 blizzards Man, this guy never learns. How can you really get excited for a storm which is 10 days away. Just sit back and see what unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 From what I understand JB has been talking about a blockbuster storm for the east coast during the 2nd week of december for some time now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 its fantasy but atleast there is another possible threat after this dud we have been tracking lol i like how the 6z shows a bomb right after the euro run around the same time period, suggesting a very story/cold pattern...i like what i see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Remember last year late December and the first part of January. We were supposed to have this epic cold and snowy period that never really came to fruition. Granted, February more than made up for it but it did seem like people were hyping the hell out of the pattern swearing something had to happen during that time. And other than some snow showers around new years and that new years eve 'surprise' snow we didnt get much. Are you kidding?!?!? We just had three big ones last meteorological winter, actually 4 I'm forgetting the big retrograding storm that gave NYC 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Remember last year late December and the first part of January. We were supposed to have this epic cold and snowy period that never really came to fruition. Granted, February more than made up for it but it did seem like people were hyping the hell out of the pattern swearing something had to happen during that time. And other than some snow showers around new years and that new years eve 'surprise' snow we didnt get much. Actually. there were many who were calling for a torchish January followed by a Snowy Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 But from the period of 12/23 - 1/15 there were calls for 3 or 4 good snow chances week or more out and nothing materialized. Actually. there were many who were calling for a torchish January followed by a Snowy Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 But from the period of 12/23 - 1/15 there were calls for 3 or 4 good snow chances week or more out and nothing materialized. 12/31 new years eve - 1 to 2 inchs fell in the AM. I know, 1 to 2 is nitpicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 12/31 new years eve - 1 to 2 inchs fell in the AM. I know, 1 to 2 is nitpicking. Then we had less than 3" all january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That was a great Euro run for the long range. Cold and possibly stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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