tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 210 -nao is starting to build again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 ruh roh hr 216 some precip coming up from the gulf and out of the plains...cue jaws theme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 204 vortex over maine lol Here we go again,. Well, at least this run is a lot colder than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 hrs 204-216 -16 to -20 850s from i80 north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 222 stomr growing in the gulf states -nao locked in with vortex above maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This is always the problem with La Niña winters...it gets cold after the storms, not before/during them. We had cold last weekend, now 1" rain today, brutally cold coming up, and then the NAO lifts and we probably get another cutter or marginal SW flow event before it goes back to being brutally cold again. lol who knows, we might get to relive the 80s, with one storm being supressed giving DC snow while the next one cuts up to the lakes and gives us rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 huge west coast ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 210 -nao is starting to build again At this point its hard for me to believe the NAO is not going to spend most of this winter in the negative phase...its becoming likely we've entered a period of predominant negative phase....there were not many cases from 1980-2000 when the NAO was generally positive that we saw a sustained period of +NAO from mid-November to mid-December and then saw a switch to negative during the winter...reverse that reasoning now and thats why I think it will be mainly negative the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 228 sub 1004 over la, precip streaming up to st louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 228 2/3 of country dominated by cold, with storm coming out of gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 234 1004 low over la precip into central missouri and as far east as western ga, 1036 high over lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 big west based -nao at hr 234 locking in vortex in 50/50 positon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Another 10 day out heartbreaker or dream maker? I am glad I don't track any kind of summer weather, I couldn't take it year round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 240 sub 1004 low over la with precip up to st louis, snowing in southern miss, precip into the se states as well. 1036 high over lakes, another blast of arctic air on the back side of this storm....big pacific ridge going into nw territories of canada, -nao with 50/50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 big west based -nao at hr 234 locking in vortex in 50/50 positon This sounds really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ioke09 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 This sounds too perfect... almost like a dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 240 sub 1004 low over la with precip up to st louis, snowing in southern miss, precip into the se states as well. 1036 high over lakes, another blast of arctic air on the back side of this storm....big pacific ridge going into nw territories of canada, -nao with 50/50 You are describing a pretty nice setup. Thoughts before the next frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 hr 240 sub 1004 low over la with precip up to st louis, snowing in southern miss, precip into the se states as well. 1036 high over lakes, another blast of arctic air on the back side of this storm....big pacific ridge going into nw territories of canada, -nao with 50/50 Sounds like a completely different solution from the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 At this point its hard for me to believe the NAO is not going to spend most of this winter in the negative phase...its becoming likely we've entered a period of predominant negative phase....there were not many cases from 1980-2000 when the NAO was generally positive that we saw a sustained period of +NAO from mid-November to mid-December and then saw a switch to negative during the winter...reverse that reasoning now and thats why I think it will be mainly negative the rest of the way. So do you think there will be a large disconnect between the NAO and the ENSO? NWS seems to be on board with this idea as they have "equal chances" up for our region. Are there many analogs for neg nao winters and winters with ninas of this magnitude? Even if there arent-- we didnt have an analog for what happened last winter either. We might have to bring back those 1903-04, 1916-17 analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Looks like a 1050 high dropping south from our Canadian friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 You are describing a pretty nice setup. Thoughts before the next frame? well it stops at 240, looking at it, its not going to slide out to sea, a good amount of ridging out ahead of it, the trof is still positively tilted, but its gonna go negative soon. The cold air is established to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cnjraider Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 well it stops at 240, looking at it, its not going to slide out to sea, a good amount of ridging out ahead of it, the trof is still positively tilted, but its gonna go negative soon. The cold air is established to Thanks for the play by play. It's ten days out but something to keep us interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 2, 2010 Author Share Posted December 2, 2010 just to illustrate atownwx map, the frz line runs from a straight line across nc.va border to ten/ky border to missouri/ark border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 well it stops at 240, looking at it, its not going to slide out to sea, a good amount of ridging out ahead of it, the trof is still positively tilted, but its gonna go negative soon. The cold air is established to I would love to see past 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 MECS set up at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 MECS set up at 240 Miller A or B? Seems to me if would be a transfer somehwere, but i'd like to hear your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Miller A or B? Seems to me if would be a transfer somehwere, but i'd like to hear your thoughts? Shortwave is from the northern stream but it's probably a hybrid with Miller A type features, that storm is already 999mb on the gulf coast. The confluence and 50/50 are in absolutely perfect positions, the cold air is established well, and that storm system is likely headed for redevelopment off the coast. Everything about the 240hr map screams significant mid atlantic snowstorm. Its a shame it's in fantasy land, but the guidance continues to show this pattern will offer up chances, at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 That looks like a HECS setup...looks like a la nina version of 2/5/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 Great stuff tombo..whew, i think its time to start tracking that next threat.. Does anyone know if the euro ens agree with the op long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 2, 2010 Share Posted December 2, 2010 10$ says the 12z shows the complete opposite? Euro has been all over the place. SO as nice as this is to look at, ill take it with a grain of salt. With so many pac energies, gonna see a wide range of solutions. Thanks earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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