chris87 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 winds seem to have shifted to the NW here and the water vapor looks like the front is past as well http://www.ssd.noaa....na-wv-loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 front is definitely to our nw still.. yeah, but winds are from the wnw here little odd, but I guess its caused by some temporary, mesoscale anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 yeah, but winds are from the wnw here little odd, but I guess its caused by some temporary, mesoscale anomaly Shortwave... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 hey, its what happens when you're not paying attention to the wx and make an ob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0412 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0123 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011 WS 0412 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 70% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 29030 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU2. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Hail probs in the watch are pretty high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Cell just went up on the eastern shore of the bay near the bottom of kent island.. 41 kft tops. Gotta love sea-breeze boundary's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WV/WESTERN VA AND CENTRAL PA...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WW AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH CAPE VALUES...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. What a compelling discussion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 looks like things are wanting to go up better now that they're entering into the higher instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Cell just went up on the eastern shore of the bay near the bottom of kent island.. 41 kft tops. Gotta love sea-breeze boundary's. I noticed that... that thing went up in a hurry didnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 HRRR doesn't seem to be updating at all... weird... The RR and HRRR are not official models/products, they are "experimental", and run off site at a supercomputer in Boulder by NOAA ESRL (not the same folks that run the GFS, NAM, etc.). The 13km RR is expected to become operational sometime this year and replace the RUC (the HRRR is still a ways off from being operational). I think they were having disk (slowness/IO) issues earlier today (that have since been resolved); so I'm sure they are playing catch up now (and from the supercomputer status page, it looks like things are up and running). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I noticed that... that thing went up in a hurry didnt it? 4500 ML CAPE and 8°C/Km ML Lapse rates. That will do it, and quickly. Question is can it sustain it self and produce hail or will it fall victim to water loading. That is today's million dollar question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 svr storm north of the md border looks like its hurting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 svr storm north of the md border looks like its hurting GR2AE shows it collapsing and rather quickly. An outflow boundary might spawn a new one soon though. The one near Hancock has fallen too. The one to watch right now is the one over by kent island. Its starting to train its updrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 svr storm north of the md border looks like its hurting Knows actually where I live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 svr storm north of the md border looks like its hurting yeah, here in South central pa it got dark and rumbled, now the sun is out in full force again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wow, Kent island cell is 52,000 feet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 GR2AE shows it collapsing and rather quickly. An outflow boundary might spawn a new one soon though. The one near Hancock has fallen too. The one to watch right now is the one over by kent island. Its starting to train its updrafts. Looks like it might be pulsing back down. Edit: my radar is showing it being almost stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 That supercell over Kent Island remains stationary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 st warning out for me (I'm working from home today). dark skies to my NW and lots of loud thunder so far. Getting pounded with rain here. 0.34" in a little over 5 minutes. Thunder, but not much in the way of wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Ian I got a massive sunado going on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CranberryWX Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Getting pounded with rain here. 0.34" in a little over 5 minutes. Thunder, but not much in the way of wind. That same broken line of small pop up storms extends all the way down through my area. The one that passed through here just wet the ground and cooled it off a few degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I dont know if I would call the Kent Island storm a supercell.....but it is nearly stationary, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I dont know if I would call the Kent Island storm a supercell.....but it is nearly stationary, 50K+ convective tops? Higher than all commercial airliners. Damn, it dropped back down again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 It may be, I'm certianly no expert, but it doesnt have all that great of a radar presentation, or any rotation to speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I dont know if I would call the Kent Island storm a supercell.....but it is nearly stationary, Its actually moving, but the updrafts are training over the same places making it looks like its stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 It may be, I'm certianly no expert, but it doesnt have all that great of a radar presentation, or any rotation to speak of. Indeed, my standards are pretty low. Haven't seen a tornado since the stone age. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Indeed, my standards are pretty low. Haven't seen a tornado since the stone age. i'd say no tho it does look like it might be rotating slowly in the higher scans .. so i suppose it's up for debate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Two new small updraft columns going up almost on top of leesburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 we need some help fast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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