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6.1.11 severe weather


Ian

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ww0412_overview_wou.gif

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0412

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0123 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

WS 0412

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 70%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 29030

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

&&

FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND

WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU2.

$$

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DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN WV/WESTERN VA AND CENTRAL PA...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WW AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH CAPE VALUES...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...WILL POSE A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

What a compelling discussion! :arrowhead:

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HRRR doesn't seem to be updating at all... weird...

The RR and HRRR are not official models/products, they are "experimental", and run off site at a supercomputer in Boulder by NOAA ESRL (not the same folks that run the GFS, NAM, etc.). The 13km RR is expected to become operational sometime this year and replace the RUC (the HRRR is still a ways off from being operational). I think they were having disk (slowness/IO) issues earlier today (that have since been resolved); so I'm sure they are playing catch up now (and from the supercomputer status page, it looks like things are up and running).

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I noticed that... that thing went up in a hurry didnt it?

4500 ML CAPE and 8°C/Km ML Lapse rates. That will do it, and quickly. Question is can it sustain it self and produce hail or will it fall victim to water loading. That is today's million dollar question.

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svr storm north of the md border looks like its hurting

GR2AE shows it collapsing and rather quickly. An outflow boundary might spawn a new one soon though. The one near Hancock has fallen too.

The one to watch right now is the one over by kent island. Its starting to train its updrafts.

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GR2AE shows it collapsing and rather quickly. An outflow boundary might spawn a new one soon though. The one near Hancock has fallen too.

The one to watch right now is the one over by kent island. Its starting to train its updrafts.

Looks like it might be pulsing back down.

Edit: my radar is showing it being almost stationary.

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Indeed, my standards are pretty low. Haven't seen a tornado since the stone age.

i'd say no tho it does look like it might be rotating slowly in the higher scans .. so i suppose it's up for debate

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