Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

6.1.11 severe weather


Ian

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 326
  • Created
  • Last Reply

long skinny torn watch almost into ne md

http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0411.html

ww0411_overview.gif

TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0411

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1158 AM CDT WED JUN 01 2011

WT 0411

PROBABILITY TABLE:

PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 40%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 20%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 60%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 60%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%

&&

ATTRIBUTE TABLE:

MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 28035

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Almost to Marcus's house

skipped my old county in ct... would have had to chill with wiz. ;)

looks like real initiation might be about to occur off to our nw.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting watching the Vis Sat loop... up on northern PA the cells that had developed along the front completely died as the storms just ahead of the front exploded only one hour later. Cell in NE PA is dying now, too. I fear the pulse storms may be the prevalent type around here today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting watching the Vis Sat loop... up on northern PA the cells that had developed along the front completely died as the storms just ahead of the front exploded only one hour later. Cell in NE PA is dying now, too. I fear the pulse storms may be the prevalent type around here today.

Could be. Maybe still enough for a microburst to take out Pepco tho.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting watching the Vis Sat loop... up on northern PA the cells that had developed along the front completely died as the storms just ahead of the front exploded only one hour later. Cell in NE PA is dying now, too. I fear the pulse storms may be the prevalent type around here today.

Agreed, I think its the water loading is causing problems for new storms. Watch out for microbursts!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

mcd1049.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1049 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 PM CDT WED JUN 01 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...VA...MD...DE...NJ...SE PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 011737Z - 011900Z

A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY FROM SRN VA NNEWD INTO SE PA WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 3500 TO 4500 J/KG RANGE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO INITIATE ON THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SRN PA...WRN MD AND ERN WV. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE MOVING EWD INTO THE MCD AREA WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES OF 7.5 TO 8.0 C/KM LIKELY ALREADY EXIST WHICH ALONG WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY WITH LINE-SEGMENTS THAT ORGANIZE. THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO 8.5 C/KM WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.

http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md1049.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...