chris87 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yup, I'd go with what SPC has outlined...30% prob (wind) and 15% prob (hail). Ah ok, thanks for the explanation. So todays threat severe wise is more of a damaging wind one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 updraft speed is related to CAPE.... large hail shouldn't be a big threat in this case...yes, CAPE is maximized but without vertical shear, updraft life cycles are going to be relatively short and you really need long sustaining updrafts to produce large hail stones Just to go a bit further... High LCLs will also hurt the hail threat, as the hail will start shrinking once it leaves the cloud. High LCLs = high cloud bases = more time for the hail to shrink before reaching the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 i like 3" hail and a tornado imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Could you explain what you mean by this? Better hail threat? ^^ What they said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 i like 3" hail and a tornado imby be sure to take pics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 i like 3" hail and a tornado imby In for a disappointment lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 be sure to take pics camera was stolen.. you'll have to take my word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 camera was stolen.. you'll have to take my word Did it happen on your way to work this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 camera was stolen.. you'll have to take my word Get some crayon's and get drawing. and really? That blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 and really? That blows. no, that's just my back story... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 the nam hates us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 5500 SBCAPE and 3500 MCLAPE on 14z SPC meso with LI's near -10 in N VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 5500 SBCAPE and 3500 MCLAPE on 14z SPC meso with LI's near -10 in N VA boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 that is pretty silly ...im going to just keep making short crappy posts, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 the nam hates us I blame it on the phantom high over KY in the initialization. It's a mb to high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 that is pretty silly ...im going to just keep making short crappy posts, fwiw Can we call you BB for the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 I blame it on the phantom high over KY in the initialization. It's a mb to high. heavy heavy sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I am still not convinced on initiation for reasons stated earlier ... Everything else (save LCL/LFC) looks great uber awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Can we call you BB for the day? no thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 LWX upped rain chances to 50% for today/tonight. First Severe Tstm Watch up for central PA and points northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 I am still not convinced on initiation for reasons stated earlier ... Everything else (save LCL/LFC) looks great uber awesome! non supercell tornado paramaters are terrible take a nap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 no thanks... Then act like Ian... or else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Then act like Ian... or else. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 meh Much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Much better Normal Ian is boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 sne is expecting several strong tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 sne is expecting several strong tornadoes. I think wiz got them riled up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 I think wiz got them riled up svr guys are browsing the thread. omgz. i'd rather be in western ks hoping for initiation. i dunno how many big tornado days feature convection starting at 10 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Normal Ian is boring. Better than BB Version 2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 sne is expecting several strong tornadoes. maybe one low scale tornado up there today. oh sne how you entertain us.:mapstorm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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