wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Pretty bullish around here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 i could see a mod risk tomorrow, probably to our north given the placement at 500/850. we could probably push 3500 cape tho, with seemingly rather decent timing for storms. i can see pretty shelf clouds when i close my eyes. If a moderate were to come out (speaking hypothetically, obv) - how far south do you think it would get? Pretty bullish around here.. You? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 If a moderate were to come out (speaking hypothetically, obv) - how far south do you think it would get? ny/w new england to maybe pa/central jersey? more outside shot into ne md. dont see how we'd get there currently, but that doesnt mean we can't get some fun out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 21z SREF is very nice.. we may have less torn risk here than north but we're bullseye for a lot of the other yodarameters. One thing last year taught us was displacing a fat heat ridge can be explosive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 21z SREF is very nice.. we may have less torn risk here than north but we're bullseye for a lot of the other yodarameters. One thing last year taught us was displacing a fat heat ridge can be explosive. So can I put you down for adding DC to the possible moderate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 21z SREF is very nice.. we may have less torn risk here than north but we're bullseye for a lot of the other yodarameters. One thing last year taught us was displacing a fat heat ridge can be explosive. Derecho please. Yodarameters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wind fields have DRASTICALLY improved from this morning per the latest models... LCLs are quite high in our region, with better stuff further north into the southern half of PA that provides a decent risk for tornadoes (per the NAM... the GFS has more unidirectional winds with less speed shear). Side note: It's interesting to note an offshore MCS that's moving SSW parallel to the Atlantic Coast... down to SC already. Just don't see that too often. It spawned back in the 'States... main discussion: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yodarameters- the severe weather parameters which lead to the formation of a massive derecho in the DC area. I have my doubts about today. This front is pretty shallow, wont even show itself in the 850mb level. The LFC/LCL is pretty high, it will be hard to get things started at peak heating. I think if we can get these things going either by outflow boundaries from the north or at least some elevated forcing (which to my un-degreed eye, I don't see) we could be in good business. ML lapse rated are good, cape is plentiful and the water loading will help to create microbursts and straight line wind damage. I would not be shocked if we bust in the DC area tomorrow though. Save a chance of convective showers when the PBL drops in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 1100 SPC meso had LI's at -9, ML lapse rates a 8.5 C/KM with a 9 in C VA SBCAPE and MLCAPE already 2000+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 1100 SPC meso had LI's at -9, ML lapse rates a 8.5 C/KM with a 9 in C VA SBCAPE and MLCAPE already 2000+ I've been told we may have some cap issues today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I've been told we may have some cap issues today I don't think s with the front coming in. Plus LWX's AFD says there shouldn't be any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I don't think s with the front coming in. Plus LWX's AFD says there shouldn't be any Ok. Just going on what Forky said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 LWX ARW at hour 14-15 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/hiresnwp/hi.res.nwp.compare.lwx.arw.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Ok. Just going on what Forky said... Linky Katie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 convective temperature on the IAD 12z sounding is 89F.....must be a phantom cap Linky Katie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 HRRR for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Linky Katie? He was talking about it on DBM about an hour ago... he showed me this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Thanks Katie ! Meanwhile - pocket of CAPE of 4500 on mesoanalysis already (Yodarameter 1 of the day) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Eh...just a couple isothermal areas, doesn't look like a true inversion anywhere at least at a quick glance. And the lowest couple of those will easily get erased with the heating of the day. WOW @ that nearly adiabatic layer above the top isothermal layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Thanks Katie ! Meanwhile - pocket of CAPE of 4500 on mesoanalysis already (Yodarameter 1 of the day) No problem - he and Adam both mentioned it. Then explained to me what that sounding showed, so I thought I'd share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Ummm so the IAD sounding (12z) on the SPC site has some very high numbers lol 5061 FCST SURFACE CAPE also - has 100% in both the SARS columns (tornado and hail) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 For clarification - the cap issues are south of DC. sorry if I caused a panic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Ummm so the IAD sounding (12z) on the SPC site has some very high numbers lol 5061 FCST SURFACE CAPE also - has 100% in both the SARS columns (tornado and hail) I like the hail size in the SARS column - 3.50 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Uh... 5000 SBCAPE at 9:30AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Mmmm yes... 3000 MLCAPE, 8+ C/KM ML Lapse rates... and a 5000 SBCAPE pocket in N VA on the 1300 spc meso page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Updrafts are going to be ludicrus once storms start going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Updrafts are going to be ludicrus once storms start going When do you think we see initiation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Updrafts are going to be ludicrus once storms start going Could you explain what you mean by this? Better hail threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 updraft speed is related to CAPE.... large hail shouldn't be a big threat in this case...yes, CAPE is maximized but without vertical shear, updraft life cycles are going to be relatively short and you really need long sustaining updrafts to produce large hail stones Could you explain what you mean by this? Better hail threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 updraft speed is related to CAPE.... large hail shouldn't be a big threat in this case...yes, CAPE is maximized but without vertical shear, updraft life cycles are going to be relatively short and you really need long sustaining updrafts to produce large hail stones Ah ok, thanks for the explanation. So todays threat severe wise is more of a damaging wind one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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