Ian Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 SPC has outlooked places to our north the last two days in the extended. I think the slight risk will at least come into the D.C. area for Wed in future updates. Features are a bit northwest of optimal, but the ridge starts to break down and we'll need to kick out the high heat somehow. Thursday looks nw-flowish, but nothing major in the pipeline for now.. worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 LWX AFD: 10AM SUN. LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW A SHORTWAVE TO MARCH EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. GFS IS FORECASTING HIGH AMOUNTS OF CAPE...ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000 J/KG. EVEN IF THIS IS OVERDONE...INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE. MOISTURE WILL BE THERE TOO...SO EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 What's the euro say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 LWX also seemed to be hinting at the possibility of maybe some MCS's this weekend if it all goes right too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 LWX also seemed to be hinting at the possibility of maybe some MCS's this weekend if it all goes right too Depending on what te ridge does we could have a few days of NW flow so it could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 29, 2011 Author Share Posted May 29, 2011 What's the euro say? verbatim not much... but the southern end of the line (wed) especially would be tricky for a global model imo. it's a pretty mesoscale process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 drought http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 loaded pattern... 08 analog lives? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Maybe we can hit June 4th right on the nose lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 loaded pattern... 08 analog lives? JB agrees http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/2008-linkage-rides-rampant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 JB agrees http://www.weatherbell.com/premium/joe-bastardi/2008-linkage-rides-rampant Plz tell me you know Ji's login info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Ridge too far north this time around i fear. 04/04/08 "Analog".. http://www.spc.noaa....0604/index.html EDIT: After a little digging i found a pretty dang good analog. http://www.spc.noaa....0521/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 30, 2011 Author Share Posted May 30, 2011 Ridge too far north this time around i fear. 04/04/08 "Analog".. http://www.spc.noaa....0604/index.html EDIT: After a little digging i found a pretty dang good analog. http://www.spc.noaa....0521/index.html no analog will be the same imo. just reference. plus in a w/nw flow we're not really going to know if there's a legit trigger till like 24-48 hours out probably. d3 slight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 no analog will be the same imo. just reference. plus in a w/nw flow we're not really going to know if there's a legit trigger till like 24-48 hours out probably. d3 slight. Ian you did notice the 12Z Nam has a bullseye over the DC Metro for overnight wednesday into thursday morning with the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 30, 2011 Share Posted May 30, 2011 Ridge too far north this time around i fear. 04/04/08 "Analog".. http://www.spc.noaa....0604/index.html EDIT: After a little digging i found a pretty dang good analog. http://www.spc.noaa....0521/index.html May 2004 was a hot and active month....the bigger outbreak was 4 days later on 5/25.....hail and several F0/F1 tornadoes in Loudoun and Frederick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 We actually look better than parts of SNE for this event. We get it later in the day and we have the better cape. Winds aloft not as good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Day 2 per SPC: OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON SWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MUCH WEAKER IN THIS REGION DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE...BUT DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP /7-7.5 C/KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG /2000-3000 J/KG/ MLCAPE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PULSE AND MULTICELL IN NATURE BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. zzzzzzzzzzzzz. Look out for localized flash flooding more than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Spc has us in 30% for Wednesday now per the new day 2 otlk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Spc has us in 30% for Wednesday now per the new day 2 otlk MODERATE OR BUST. jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Spc has us in 30% for Wednesday now per the new day 2 otlk squall line season is better than tornado season here. at least people actually get hit with storms during squall line season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 MODERATE OR BUST. jk Bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Bust! DERECHO OR BUST! PDS SEVERE TSTM WATCH OR BUST! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 DERECHO OR BUST! PDS SEVERE TSTM WATCH OR BUST! lol I bet $100 its a bust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I bet $100 its a bust! If I made that bet I'd be sure to lose 100 bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 DERECHO OR BUST! PDS SEVERE TSTM WATCH OR BUST! lol Well this time we will have the cold front around so perhaps a derecho... but more like aline with bow echoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 the nam continues to blank new england.. too much excitement up there for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 cape 3000-3500 should be good for some scattered big stuff. i like some wind damage tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 cape 3000-3500 should be good for some scattered big stuff. i like some wind damage tomorrow. I was impressed with CAPE today even though we weren't expecting storms - on the order of 5000 j/kg And I like having you bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Henry Margusity over at Accuwx (lol I know) went as far as mentioning a moderate risk tomorrow Also - the thread title is very bland lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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