forkyfork Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 much like all the snow comes north during winter and away from you huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Are we going to talk about Monday in here to or in the other thread? 18z GFS actually looks quite decent with sfc-500mb shear...35-40 knots. We are talking about Monday here. You should probably focus on staying sober for awhile and not drinking as much as you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 So let's take some guesses on what will go wrong Wednesday. 18z NAM has a pretty sizable tornado threat. Strongest shear gets disorganized from the greatest instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 We are talking about Monday here. You should probably focus on staying sober for awhile and not drinking as much as you do Well the package stores are closed today and tomorrow and I won't be drinking again until Wednesday night when the Bruins play...likely a 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 So let's take some guesses on what will go wrong Wednesday. 18z NAM has a pretty sizable tornado threat. 6/6/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 We'll probably get screwed by clouds on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Well the package stores are closed today and tomorrow and I won't be drinking again until Wednesday night when the Bruins play...likely a 40. Why do drink(get drunk) almost every day? I don't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Why do drink(get drunk) almost every day? I don't get it Why did you puke from 6 beers in Will's car? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Why do drink(get drunk) almost every day? I don't get it I don't drink everyday, usually only when the Bruins play...but yesterday I was at a cookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Why did you puke from 6 beers in Will's car? lightweight I had a 12-pack and a 40 yesterday and I could have kept going but I ran out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Why did you puke from 6 beers in Will's car? It was 15..and it was due to his erratic driving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 It was 15..and it was due to his erratic driving That's a valid excuse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 We'll probably get screwed by clouds on Wednesday. Yes, that sounds likely. I can see the Canadian s/w trending even further north too. Less shear, less lift, more bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yes, that sounds likely. I can see the Canadian s/w trending even further north too. Less shear, less lift, more bust. I'm going to be pissed if this doesn't pan out...something has to pan out one of these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'm going to be pissed if this doesn't pan out...something has to pan out one of these days. I'd like a surprise convective event tonight and tomorrow too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 We'll probably get screwed by clouds on Wednesday. The NAM has had stubborn mid level clouds for a couple runs now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'd like a surprise convective event tonight and tomorrow too Yeah those ones are fun b/c you really aren't expecting it. I would really like to see a nice light show tonight...even if something doesn't get us directly as long as it passes close enough to where we see see lightning. Tomorrow could certainly be fun but going to be very, very isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 The NAM has had stubborn mid level clouds for a couple runs now.. Sometimes cloud cover gets overdone with W/NW flows in the mid and upper levels. Just like it can be overdone with a SW low levell flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'm going to be pissed if this doesn't pan out...something has to pan out one of these days. Its never good to get excited about an event on the models until its like less than 24h out. I could see this trending worse as Ryan said...if that whole system is further north. Hopefully it trends the other way because if it does, it could be a really really good setup, but I'm not holding my breath yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'd like a surprise convective event tonight and tomorrow too What timeframe could we pop storms you think?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Its never good to get excited about an event on the models until its like less than 24h out. I could see this trending worse as Ryan said...if that whole system is further north. Hopefully it trends the other way because if it does, it could be a really really good setup, but I'm not holding my breath yet. Hopefully tonight's 0z runs have it a bit further south...if any runs start hinting at a further north track that would be horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 What timeframe could we pop storms you think?? That was answered a couple times in the past couple pages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 much like all the snow comes north during winter and away from you what does this have to do with tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Anytime 500mb heights rise through the day I'm never too gung ho on convection lol Yeah, mentioned this in my discussion on the blog i posted a few minutes ago. Obviously it's a bit different down here--but the same general idea. Mid level ridge builds throughout the morning hours and 500mb heights are very near 594dm by 18z. H85 temperatures are in the upper teens...near 17-19 C. Lots of humidity and temperatures in the low to potentially mid 90s over the urban corridor. Upper 80's are likely even to the area beaches. We are more bullish on the heat Monday than usual--with 10m winds turning west-southwest by 12z. This is a very good wind direction for hot temperatures in our area, especially with such an anomalous ridge in place. One slight concern is the decaying MCS--but most model guidance has the cloud debris weakening significantly by 12z or shortly thereafter. GFS MOS was warmer than 12z NAM mos--with a high near 95 at EWR. NAM seems to be playing a bit of catch up--newest 18z run is now 92 or slightly higher in the urban corridor--up a few degrees from the 12z run. Convection, once again, only a slight concern with mid level heights again rising and strong capping in place. That being said---chance of isolated storms does exist especially along any convergence that does develop--to which the potential seems very limited given the westerly flow keeping any stronger penetrating sea-breeze boundaries at bay. That being said..any cap breakers that do develop could very quickly go severe given degree of thermodynamic support in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Hopefully tonight's 0z runs have it a bit further south...if any runs start hinting at a further north track that would be horrible. Not to burst the negative bubble too much but... the 18z vortmax was southeast of the 12z one on the nam.. GFS was slightly south also at 18z compared to 12z.. NAM is SE of GFS when compared... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Its never good to get excited about an event on the models until its like less than 24h out. I could see this trending worse as Ryan said...if that whole system is further north. Hopefully it trends the other way because if it does, it could be a really really good setup, but I'm not holding my breath yet. At least that hasn't happened last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 what does this have to do with tonight? I thought the hard south turn was attempt at sne severe trolling lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Not to burst the negative bubble too much but... the 18z vortmax was southeast of the 12z one on the nam.. GFS was slightly south also at 18z compared to 12z.. NAM is SE of GFS when compared... Makes sense b/c the 18z runs were a bit stronger with the shear here and further south with the strongest shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Makes sense b/c the 18z runs were a bit stronger with the shear here and further south with the strongest shear. As long as the vortmax does not trend further north then like say the 12z runs showed... we have an event in place.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Yeah I just went out there and watered a bit...these above average temperatures are sucking the water out, although overall it's a big plus for the garden. I've never seen fruit on the tomatoes and blooms on the eggplant and peppers this early in the season. 3 days in the 90s is going to really ramp things up, wouldn't be surprised if I'm harvesting cherry tomatoes by mid June at this rate. 78.2/70 off a high of 81.1F.... OT but, I just planted a bunch of summer veggies, and how often should you water cukes, strawberries and tomatoes in heat like this? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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