weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'm bullish too. I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a light show and maybe some hail. Instability is looking more and more impressive each model run. I might go to the gold course if something comes here...great spot to view incoming storms from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I'm bullish too. I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a light show and maybe some hail. Instability is looking more and more impressive each model run. the nam has it too--but it's farther south over eastern pa, nj, and nyc. pretty significant area vorticity with the convection valid 09z monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Really? Back here it looks 30-40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. 18z NAM less.... 12z GFS more. NW winds up to 40 knots at 500mb 18z-00z with somewhat veered boundary layer winds. I was looking at this and wasn't that impressed, ML winds were pretty weak...but maybe it will be better. Perhaps a wet microburst gust could bring down 30-35 kts from 500mb. http://68.226.77.253/text/meso/NAM_KBDL.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 the nam has it too--but it's farther south over eastern pa, nj, and nyc. pretty significant area vorticity with the convection valid 09z monday morning. I think the NAM probably is honing in too much on the vort max it's blowing up now and not on what will likely develop on the northern flank of the current MCS and further east into NYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I was looking at this and wasn't that impressed, ML winds were pretty weak...but maybe it will be better. Perhaps a wet microburst gust could bring down 30-35 kts from 500mb. http://68.226.77.253...so/NAM_KBDL.txt BUFKIT soundings look decent. GFS has 40-45 knot winds tomorrow afternoon. Certainly not bad... we've had much worse. If something pops we'll have the shear to organize the convection... with a good bit of instability. I still think most of us remained capped though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I feel like that MCS over detroit should lift up toward BUF -> ALB -> GFL area and not further south...the paramaters look good to maintain it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 BUFKIT soundings look decent. GFS has 40-45 knot winds tomorrow afternoon. Certainly not bad... we've had much worse. If something pops we'll have the shear to organize the convection... with a good bit of instability. I still think most of us remained capped though. Doody says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 BUFKIT soundings look decent. GFS has 40-45 knot winds tomorrow afternoon. Certainly not bad... we've had much worse. If something pops we'll have the shear to organize the convection... with a good bit of instability. I still think most of us remained capped though. I like Wednesday's mid-level wind field much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I feel like that MCS over detroit should lift up toward BUF -> ALB -> GFL area and not further south...the paramaters look good to maintain it further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Anytime 500mb heights rise through the day I'm never too gung ho on convection lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I like Wednesday's mid-level wind field much better. No doubt. But Monday definitely has enough shear for storm organization. I think it's more likely that no storms form at all or the ones that do remain disorganized. With 2000 j/kg + of CAPE and 30-35 knots of 0-6km bulk shear that's certainly enough for severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 No doubt. But Monday definitely has enough shear for storm organization. I think it's more likely that no storms form at all or the ones that do remain disorganized. With 2000 j/kg + of CAPE and 30-35 knots of 0-6km bulk shear that's certainly enough for severe. Eh, high WBZ heights and pretty weak 700mb winds. Seems like the type of weenie threat where wiz reports a lot of twigs down from a 40 knot gust on the HAM radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 00z Tuesday 500mb wind speed. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 No doubt. But Monday definitely has enough shear for storm organization. I think it's more likely that no storms form at all or the ones that do remain disorganized. With 2000 j/kg + of CAPE and 30-35 knots of 0-6km bulk shear that's certainly enough for severe. I remember a setup like this a few summers ago, I think it was 2007...we had a great deal of cape with not a great deal of shear but tomorrow's shear values are much higher...we were also capped that day...the cap did break and a few storms popped...there was one cell that developed over the Windsor Locks area I think...produced a great deal of rain and strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Eh, high WBZ heights and pretty weak 700mb winds. Seems like the type of weenie threat where wiz reports a lot of twigs down from a 40 knot gust on the HAM radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Ryan goes on air in about 10 mins. I expect him to really hit the t-storm aspect hard for late tonight and tomorrow afternoon. I'd like to see him really rile up some viewers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Should I go chasing in W MA tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 I remember a setup like this a few summers ago, I think it was 2007...we had a great deal of cape with not a great deal of shear but tomorrow's shear values are much higher...we were also capped that day...the cap did break and a few storms popped...there was one cell that developed over the Windsor Locks area I think...produced a great deal of rain and strong winds. Well I'm not really expecting much of anything tomorrow... but if things form we'll have some nice shear and CAPE for things to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Ryan goes on air in about 10 mins. I expect him to really hit the t-storm aspect hard for late tonight and tomorrow afternoon. I'd like to see him really rile up some viewers Probably not. I think odds are 70/30 we remain capped and see nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Should I go chasing in W MA tomorrow? I'd do it Wednesday. I might go to BDL tomorrow if anything pops up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Probably not. I think odds are 70/30 we remain capped and see nothing. Well then pump some folks up for tonight's storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 i could see the MI derecho making a S turn over ny state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Well I'm not really expecting much of anything tomorrow... but if things form we'll have some nice shear and CAPE for things to work with. If we see storms tomorrow it's only going to be one or two...I highly doubt we see widespread convection. But those one or two cells could certainly pack a punch...mainly with strong winds and a crap load of CG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Well then pump some weenies into my fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 i could see the MI derecho making a S turn over ny state much like all the snow comes north during winter and away from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 i could see the MI derecho making a S turn over ny state Yeah that's probably what will happen but I think we'll probably keep developing convection on the northern flank of the thing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Hopefully the main s/w on Wednesday trends further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Are we going to talk about Monday in here to or in the other thread? 18z GFS actually looks quite decent with sfc-500mb shear...35-40 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 So let's take some guesses on what will go wrong Wednesday. 18z NAM has a pretty sizable tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 Hopefully the main s/w on Wednesday trends further south. If the ridge breaks down faster than progged would that be one thing to help it track further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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