weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 From the GFS...WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Taking a look at some of the soundings, its pretty clear some are underestimating the severe potential today. Just because strong tornados are rare in NE doesn't mean they don't occur. Some of the latest numbers are outright scary. If we were to get tornadoes in the NE, this would seem to be the year with everything that has gone on down South and in Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Any of the broadcast mets talking this up? Should be interesting on the 12PM broadcasts. Here is a pic of the mammatus clouds from this morning (a fox25 follower on twitter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 All these squiggly line plots confuse the hell of out me. Need some nice color-filled contour maps of expected trees down per square mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well it looks lik there's not gonna be mulitple storms/lines today. That one line seems to be the main show. I was hoping we could delay things, but it appears the HRR was right withthe early storms being it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 OKX: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NEW YORKCITY METRO AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST. IN COLLABORATION WITHSPC...THERMODYNAMICS ARE HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE THAT A SEVERETHUNDERSTORM OR POSSIBLY A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED EARLY THISAFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIALFOR CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Holy crap...sfc-3km EHI nearing 6 just to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 HRRR has that convection coming through here as well as some new stuff forming along some sort of instability burst/LLJ. Ended up doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well it looks lik there's not gonna be mulitple storms/lines today. That one line seems to be the main show. I was hoping we could delay things, but it appears the HRR was right withthe early storms being it Need to get out the weenie cannon for 21 gun salute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wow..even Attica is here now.. Attica..thoughts? Come on ..gives us a little something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Sorry Wiz... 1630 SPC OTLK remains SLGT... TOR potential remains 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Still in a slight risk Still 5% TOR Hail/Wind 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Need to get out the weenie cannon for 21 gun salute FIYAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NB-Weather Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 ahh, a nice eastward shift for 5% tornado/30% wind. Looking better and better, hoping for hail. Almost 22 years and never seen hail here.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wiz, you think SPC is underestimating the TOR potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Need to get out the weenie cannon for 21 gun salute Hey, you started this thread! Good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well looks like it'll be a TOR watch ..Congrats to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Time to head out down the street to the farm...don't want to miss the cows flying through the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Getting cautiously optimistic here. Really hoping the line doesn't rapidly start to weaken once it hits the Cheshire/Hillsborough border and leaves everyone to the east with rotting cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wiz, you think SPC is underestimating the TOR potential? Well the new MCD says no they aren't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Hey, you started this thread! Good call We'll see what happens. Nothing really as of yet...except You had a good call with the AM convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The line went through here with absolutely nothing... not even increased cloudiness. 81/70 at 800ft 75/69 at 2,100ft (winds now WNW) Oppressively humid still. MSS in northern NY saw a Td drop from 69F to 56F in 2 hours. That's gotta feel nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 good thing im in cannan ct right now, might have a front row seat later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Haha that is is. RUC is keeping 0-1km SRH and EHI pretty high across ME, srn VT, NH, MA, CT, and srn NY all through the afternoon (>200J/kg). This would be more than enough to support tornadoes with the CAPE profile in place. In fact, I would venture there to be a strong tornado or two if this really does pan out. I would honestly probably put out a 10% hatched area for SNE and NYC metro if I were making an outlook. I agree about the possibility of a strong tornado or two. Not sure how discrete things will be but if not, there should still be a decent threat for some QLCS spinups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 We'll see what happens. Nothing really as of yet...except You had a good call with the AM convection. lol... I just looked out the window...sky has a good look to it now btw. Can see contrails yet it has that hazey look to it. Something's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 supercell developing NW of ALB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NB-Weather Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 supercell developing NW of ALB? ha was just going to post that. some weak rotation with it. Tornado warned soon? Looks impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 supercell developing NW of ALB? yes, wouldn't be surprised to see it hook down and hit near Bennington definitely gotta be some good sized hail in that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Cell H6 showing a top to 41,000ft, vil of 79, 90% chance svr hail, hail size 2.50" Headed straight towards Bennington County. Should be interesting to see what happens when that thing hits the Greens at 3,000ft. Tell Wiz to go set up in Woodford, VT on RT 7 at 2,300ft to watch that when it rips through there. Bennington County is a severe weather magnet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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