CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I doubt you could recall more than 3x since you've been a met when that's been the case I doubt you could make a forecast without reading every AFD and everyone's thoughts on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 already told the boss i'm out if things start looking ugly.. i don't want to be stuck in a windowless office if things pan out well I lucked out having our daughter's day care provider take today-Friday off (headed to see her son graduate from Marine boot camp) so I get to hang out with my 4 year old making jello and watching Disney and weather. We'll head out in a few minutes to the playground. Sadly, my wife would not be pleased if we went out chasing... the minivan is a great chase vehicle (hear that Scott!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I doubt you could make a forecast without reading every AFD and everyone's thoughts on the board. I doubt you could make a good 7 day temp forecast without ripping and reading GFS MOS..and then having your boss Brad check the numbers before submitting them on air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I lucked out having our daughter's day care provider take today-Friday off (headed to see her son graduate from Marine boot camp) so I get to hang out with my 4 year old making jello and watching Disney and weather. We'll head out in a few minutes to the playground. Sadly, my wife would not be pleased if we went out chasing... the minivan is a great chase vehicle (hear that Scott!) lol I had a passing thought this morning of dropping Amy off at work and Sarah off at daycare and going chasing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I doubt you could make a good 7 day temp forecast without ripping and reading GFS MOS..and then having your boss Brad check the numbers before submitting them on air How's that BDL 3 days of 80F for a low working out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The probs on the watch are much lower than expected. I have to admit, I'm awfully suprised there is no moderate risk with such a good setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 will be nice just to get some rain. thunder & lightning a bonus at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Since the first one is a severe tstorm watch..they won;t issue a TOR watch for areas farther east to keep it consistent There's no precedent for this statement Kev - they'll issue a Tor watch if conidtions become prevelent, period. That said, I am seeing a lot of SSW vectors in BL around the area. If we get sufficient SBCAPE values (with lowering LCLs helpful over all), 0-3km helicity will be relatively high already, and even higher when westerly 700mb jet begings to nose into NW zones around 18z. Intersecting helicity with SBCAPE is always risky. I'd be worried about discrete cells firing off ahead of a brokent squalline my self. These will tend to move due E with inflow situated nicely (SRH). Prefrontal trough could be a convergence trigger. This mornings rapidity in explosive development over eastern MA is a teller - limited CINH (that can also be a bad thing because you don't want too much arial coverage) As the region heats up (and we see FIT soared 6F in 30 minutes when the sun broke), we may see an eventual contamination of marine particularly for SE zones... Watch for the old invisible BDL - Lowell line of weakening should that happen. But that zone between ALB-BED-HFD in there, particularly where llv may veer more S for topography is intriguing in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 From the 12z NAM...wow. Higher with helicity this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 decent Cu field is beginning to develop from DSV to BTV on the last hi res visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 CBMAM reported at BOS. You don't see that too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 CBMAM reported at BOS. You don't see that too often. that's cool. i know it's not all that uncommon in general, but i've only seen it really well defined like 2 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 CBMAM reported at BOS. You don't see that too often. My favorite clouds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Cum Mam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 That hodograph Paul posted is nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 CBMAM reported at BOS. You don't see that too often. I saw that on the way to the office down I495... I left the house in Ayer and looked up, and without yet having seen a sat or rad I thought, "that's the back side of a cb wall". My phone range shortly thereafter; it was my Met buddy drooling. Not surprising to see the 12Z NAM up the helicity - this matches my own obs I was just telling Kevin. I would watch those low els where the wind tends to veer more S for local enhanced 0-3km favorable shear. with DP approaching 70, LCLs getting lower and that shear could be funnel trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 That hodograph Paul posted is nuts If things work out timing wise it could be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 If things work out timing wise it could be very interesting. I think the biggest negative may be the storms forming in NY outrunning the best shear and forcing. That may limit tornadic potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Tornadotony is in the thread. The threat is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I think the biggest negative may be the storms forming in NY outrunning the best shear and forcing. That may limit tornadic potential. That's a possibility and this is something that's screwed us over many times before...hopefully that doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 It's sick how unstable it is just west of here, SBcapes approaching 5000 J/KG, MLcapes approaching 3500 J/KG, MUcapes approaching 5000 J/KG, NCapes approaching 0.3, DCapes approaching 1500 J/KG, LI values nearing -9C. ML lapse rates still between 7.5-8.5 C/KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 It's sick how unstable it is just west of here, SBcapes approaching 5000 J/KG, MLcapes approaching 3500 J/KG, MUcapes approaching 5000 J/KG, NCapes approaching 0.3, DCapes approaching 1500 J/KG, LI values nearing -9C. ML lapse rates still between 7.5-8.5 C/KM. good thing you have to keep score at a baseball game today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 good thing you have to keep score at a baseball game today. Well New Britain is a good spot for storms so perhaps I'll get something there...depending on timing the game could even get cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Tornadotony is in the thread. The threat is real Haha that is is. RUC is keeping 0-1km SRH and EHI pretty high across ME, srn VT, NH, MA, CT, and srn NY all through the afternoon (>200J/kg). This would be more than enough to support tornadoes with the CAPE profile in place. In fact, I would venture there to be a strong tornado or two if this really does pan out. I would honestly probably put out a 10% hatched area for SNE and NYC metro if I were making an outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I lucked out having our daughter's day care provider take today-Friday off (headed to see her son graduate from Marine boot camp) so I get to hang out with my 4 year old making jello and watching Disney and weather. We'll head out in a few minutes to the playground. Sadly, my wife would not be pleased if we went out chasing... the minivan is a great chase vehicle (hear that Scott!) it's not a chase if you say you're going to the store to get milk or something lol I had a passing thought this morning of dropping Amy off at work and Sarah off at daycare and going chasing today. that's freakin hilarious because i had a similar thought and felt guilty! maybe i should pick you guys up and we'll go riding around or something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 EHI values pretty high just west of here. 0-1km of about 2 and sfc-3km up to 3-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm thinking the best storm chances may be east of here eh? They said in my point cast that the risk is before 4 PM here. I just want to get this airmass out of here and have the refreshing air. I think the biggest negative may be the storms forming in NY outrunning the best shear and forcing. That may limit tornadic potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Prob gonna see a tor watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Haha that is is. RUC is keeping 0-1km SRH and EHI pretty high across ME, srn VT, NH, MA, CT, and srn NY all through the afternoon (>200J/kg). This would be more than enough to support tornadoes with the CAPE profile in place. In fact, I would venture there to be a strong tornado or two if this really does pan out. I would honestly probably put out a 10% hatched area for SNE and NYC metro if I were making an outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 the storm between Dansville and Elmira is weakly rotating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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