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Severe wx potential Wednesday


free_man

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I'm starting to feel that this line will be the death for anywhere outside of WCT and WMA

Only 68/57 here at 653 am obs.. don't think well see the high dews up this way..

It's CTs year anyway..

Actually its starting to rain here now.. bummer

Edit: huge rumble of thunder and cg lightning now

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take a look at the plume of 9C and 10C 700mb temps to the WSW. If anything, the models are underestimating the capping this morning. The NAM has a 700mb temp of 5.5C at CAN at 12z lol...it's more like 9-9.5C. The GFS is closer but still looks about 1C too cool.

Probably having trouble figuring out the depth of the EML aloft. GFS seems to have a nice inversion that starts to weaken as synoptic scale lift moves in from the west. Classic EML kind of event.

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One of the events in the 80s....'85 or '89 had a nice EML over DC, but they were too capped. It actually looked similar to the 12z RAOB iirc. I'll have to look back.

I could see areas south of us in the Mid Atlantic styaing capped with that strong EML. Going to need some QG forcing to start eroding that cap.

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Those storms in NE Mass, S NH are quickly borderline severe

Yup and of course they formed right over me lol...

Ryan do we have to see sun immediately after these storms to see severe in afternoon?

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