weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I would say that skywarn activation is likely for sct svr thunderstorms moving into the western part of the cwa by 18-19z. That's all? That's what was said in the Severe Weather Coordination Message Rob sent out a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I would say that skywarn activation is likely for sct svr thunderstorms moving into the western part of the cwa by 18-19z. I would say that is a very good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I would say that is a very good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 That's all? That's what was said in the Severe Weather Coordination Message Rob sent out a few hours ago. Well, lots of people hashed things out over the last several hours...myself included. Not sure what you want me to tell you at this point. We all know there's a chance of a pretty big svr day if everything aligns correctly. It's time to wait and see how things pan out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well, lots of people hashed things out over the last several hours...myself included. Not sure what you want me to tell you at this point. We all know there's a chance of a pretty big svr day if everything aligns correctly. It's time to wait and see how things pan out. I was just wondering if you had any new thoughts after seeing the 0z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 If dews stay decent (upper 60s to around 70F) and we avoid diabatic heating problems...we could get some isolated but pretty impressive supercells if the pre-frontal trough comes through in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I was just wondering if you had any new thoughts after seeing the 0z models. Well, the NAM seems useless. It didn't help boost confidence since it's probably going to be wrong right off the bat. I think the gfs has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well, the NAM seems useless. It didn't help boost confidence since it's probably going to be wrong right off the bat. I think the gfs has the right idea. You mean you don't think there is going to be a huge explosion of thunderstorms over E NY and W NE between now and 4am that turns into an MCS over SE NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well, the NAM seems useless. It didn't help boost confidence since it's probably going to be wrong right off the bat. I think the gfs has the right idea. Awesome! Great to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I can't wait for the new day 1...should be coming out any minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 You mean you don't think there is going to be a huge explosion of thunderstorms over E NY and W NE between now and 4am that turns into an MCS over SE NY? I think there will be isolated storms...some of us will hear thunder between 06z and 12z...but not like the nam. Not sure what that was all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 New Day 1 out... 5%/15%/30% A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE THIS MORNING ACROSS PA/NY AND SPREADING NEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS EVENING SHOWED AROUND 4000 J/KG MUCAPE WITH UPPER 60S F BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. SOME COOLING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE REGION. BY MID MORNING...MODELS ARE ADAMANT IN PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY AROUND 15-18Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN LITTLE CAPPING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY PROVE A BIT DETRIMENTAL TO OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. STILL...HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER...40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW AND HEATING AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING STORMS WILL FOSTER DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZED INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS. IF STORM MODE DOES NOT BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT...A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY CAPABLE OF A FEW VERY LARGE HAILSTONES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 HRRR takes 99% of convection related to WAA into high NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Latest from BOX 1 AM UPDATE...MESOANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTING AN AREA OF INCREASING DEWPOINTS/THETAECONVERGENCE ACROSS NRN PA COLLOCATED WITH THE MID-LVL WARM FRNT.STARTING TO SEE SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING FROM IR SATELLITE...YETHAVE TRIMMED BACK EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON THE POPS FIGURING PERHAPSTHAT THE STRENGTH OF THE RETREATING RIDGE GRADUALLY TO THE SE ANDTHE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT ALONG THEMID-LVL WARM FRONT. THE SITUATION STILL BEARS WATCHING. SHOULDPRECIP DEVELOP AS INITIALLY THOUGHT...THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT THESITUATION FOR LATER THIS AFTN. BUT AM NOT FULLY GOING WITH THE 0ZNAM SOLN...AND ACTUALLY QUESTION ITS OUTPUT ESPECIALLY MORESO FORTHE AFTN PERIOD. WILL GO INTO GREATER DETAIL WITH THE 4 AM FCSTISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...MONITORING MID-LVL CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE SRN NEWENGLAND RGN WITH 4-6 KFT CEILINGS. ALSO BEGINNING TO SEE FOGIMPACTS ACROSS LONG ISLAND WITH VSBYS DOWN TO AROUND 1 MILE. WITHTHE SFC SLY FLOW ANTICIPATE THIS FOG TO IMPACT THE SRN NEW ENGLANDSHORELINE...CAPE/ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS INTO THE MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I think there will be isolated storms...some of us will hear thunder between 06z and 12z...but not like the nam. Not sure what that was all about. Yeah I couldn't believe all the qpf it was placing. It looked like a big outbreak the way it zapped everything on the map between 06z and 09z. GFS looks like it tries to get some more isolated stuff in here which certainly seems reasonable, especially based on the isolated nature in NY thus far. I'm definitely a little paranoid about the dewpoints tomorrow. I remember an event screwing up fairly recently (I think 2008) because we all dry-scorched our dews down to like 64F and just couldn't get anything to fire. The setup wasn't as good looking as this but it still had some potential. I remember we were all staring at the obs and the virtually blank radar in the afternoon noting how nothing could seem to sustain or even really get going. Couldn't get through the cap with the weaker instability. Hopefully we see some nice pooling though of the higher dews...keep that wind more SSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well dews are in the upper 60's to lower 70's on the other side of the front so that's a great sign. 850 dews are between 13C-17C...which is GREAT Nice pocket of +11C 700mb temps too just to our SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 High high the dews get and how deep the low level moisture is will also really help to determine the potential for an isolated tornado...looking at GFS BDL soundings LCL might be a bit further high than preferred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Mehhhhh this WF crap is probably not going to get to BOS until 10-12am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Hopefully not jinxing myself but the upstream trends are impressive. Very little cloud debris to burn off this morning. Convection near Elmira is falling apart and it looks like the convection over Lake Ontario isn't going to town either... though I expect it may eventually do something across the Dacks and central/northern NE. SNE and NYC metro probably start the day relatively sunny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Hopefully not jinxing myself but the upstream trends are impressive. Very little cloud debris to burn off this morning. Convection near Elmira is falling apart and it looks like the convection over Lake Ontario isn't going to town either. Dews already getting towards the upper 60's with low 70's not far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 5z HRRR still dumps on us around 12z with some AM convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 SPC SREF keeps bumping up the low level shear across SNE. By 21z >50% probs of 0-3km helicity >200 m2/s2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 SPC SREF keeps bumping up the low level shear across SNE. By 21z >50% probs of 0-3km helicity >200 m2/s2 Yeah 21z SPC SREF very nice looking. 3z coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yeah 21z SPC SREF very nice looking. 3z coming out now. I was looking at the 3z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I was looking at the 3z Just got it to update.,.not only does it increase svr probs but it also beefs up tornado potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Just got it to update.,.not only does it increase svr probs but it also beefs up tornado potential. Not surprising with strong low level winds and more curved hodographs showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Not surprising with strong low level winds and more curved hodographs showing up. 6z NAM coming out as well...will be interesting to see what it shows, especially with the crazy MCS early AM. What time you on air this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 6z NAM coming out as well...will be interesting to see what it shows, especially with the crazy MCS early AM. What time you on air this morning? 430-700 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 430-700 Ok sweet...I can stay up a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Ok sweet...I can stay up a bit longer. I'd go to bed... not going to talk about anything I haven't already posted lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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