ORH_wxman Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well.. convection is waning hundreds of miles away.. We have no cloud cover over us now and no fog or stratus expected to develop.. its looking pretty damn good There's a chance stuff develops along the warm front later tonight. Just because there is nothing now doesn't mean stuff cannot pop later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 July 1995 was in the early morning. Youll have lower LLCs and still plenty of time for heating for a second afternoon bout of severe. Your enemy is the marine layer. Meh scott is usually cut and dry on our chances but he seemed slightly optimistic... I'll be happy to just see a thunderstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well.. convection is waning hundreds of miles away.. We have no cloud cover over us now and no fog or stratus expected to develop.. its looking pretty damn good There could be some fog later on, especially towards the coast. We still can't rule out anything developing and clouds could develop as isentropic lift increases as well as moisture and theta-e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 There's a chance stuff develops along the warm front later tonight. Just because there is nothing now doesn't mean stuff cannot pop later tonight. I'll be watching I'm just surprised it already hasn't... but comparing to the MCS monday and every other svr event ever it looks pretty good for being in our shoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'll be watching I'm just surprised it already hasn't... but comparing to the MCS monday and every other svr event ever it looks pretty good for being in our shoes Well that departing high pressure is still in control of our area, this is why the warm front is still off to our west. If something pops it won't be until the high is far enough away to where it's influences here are much more minor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 There could be some fog later on, especially towards the coast. We still can't rule out anything developing and clouds could develop as isentropic lift increases as well as moisture and theta-e. I know what your saying.. I'm just happy it doesn't look like we will have to stress through breaking through cloud decks for too long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I know what your saying.. I'm just happy it doesn't look like we will have to stress through breaking through cloud decks for too long Yeah I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well that departing high pressure is still in control of our area, this is why the warm front is still off to our west. If something pops it won't be until the high is far enough away to where it's influences here are much more minor. Hmm... It would be nice if that dry air associated with the EML killed the elevated convection.. wouldn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yeah like I just said in the post below I am not feeling MCS or debris will be an issue tomorrow. My main three areas of concern today were: (1)Clouds (2)Dry Air (3)Dewpoints One and three are no longer a big concern for me when I look at current trends. Doesn't look like much is firing up tonight that would hit SNE. Dewpoints reached near 70 in the midatlantic which suggusts we shouldn't have much of a problem doing so. I think two will not be resolved until we actually see the storms pop off. Let's just hope our storms are not too finicky about the dry air tomorrow. Hell, lets hope the dry air maximizes downdrafts. Yeah, there are always mitigating factors up here. There's never a lock, stock, barrel event. Normally it's the lapse rates that keep us from getting sig svr events up here. Since we'll have them tmrw that's half the battle. But there are some other things that you and a few others are mentioning that could keep this from really going to town. It wouldn't surprise me if we ended up having a big event, but it also wouldn't surprise me if it ended up flopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 GFS looking pretty impressive again so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 This is absolutely sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yeah, there are always mitigating factors up here. There's never a lock, stock, barrel event. Normally it's the lapse rates that keep us from getting sig svr events up here. Since we'll have them tmrw that's half the battle. But there are some other things that you and a few others are mentioning that could keep this from really going to town. It wouldn't surprise me if we ended up having a big event, but it also wouldn't surprise me if it ended up flopping. Personally I think the dry air is our biggest enemy tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 This is absolutely sick That is a pretty crazily curved hodo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 That is a pretty crazily curved hodo Not only curved but also fairly long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Personally I think the dry air is our biggest enemy tomorrow meh...not so sure, latest indications are this won't be an issue...GFS/SREFS in excellent agreement...it's the NAM on it's own really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 GFS doesn't have the front going through until close to or just around 0z...pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 meh...not so sure, latest indications are this won't be an issue...GFS/SREFS in excellent agreement...it's the NAM on it's own really. Well, not a huge enemy, but our biggest. If that makes better sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike_D Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 GFS doesn't have the front going through until close to or just around 0z...pretty good. Also shows some warming after 12z from 550-400mb. Hurts lapse rates a little bit but nothing too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm calling game on tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Some conflicting signals with this. K index being on the high side is actually not good for discrete cells. The NAM's 24 hour outlook seeming to fail better QPF argues against that index measure being so high - so it is unclear to me why the NAM is not more. The NAM is actually the best tool out there for convective initialization inside of 24 hours; this is known to those that follow model particulars. Shear is good - no question. But, heights are not falling as impressively as they were out west of here earlier in the day (where there was only sparse realization as it is). I think the Michigan under achievement, however, is because of Lake Michigan contamination wending its way across the state N of I-96, limiting development to along the boundary there. Without that, I see a lot of bow echoes with the linear wind shear profiles they had. So there is a lot of confused pros and cons on this. My experience though is that these wide open cfropa events with lead day-time heating runs into trouble because of pre-frontal trough advecting a quasi-dry line seaward prior to better jet mechanics arriving. That's been my biggest issue with this from the start. I don't think the NAM is handling the overnight too well - I'm not seeing where that QPF eruption over SE NY and eastern PA at and prior to 12z is coming from. HPC currently is analyzing the warm boundary on top of or exceeding these areas already, so they should be nocturnally stablized in a barotropic hell over night there. This boundary doesn't appear to have much resistance in accelerating across the rest of SNE through mid morning - ie, not much IB there, either. I think this dawns with discerned run at a hotter more humid day regionally, then stuff fires in the pre-frontal trough with some severe - to what extent, who knows, but SC numbers being up - watch out... But the front its self may not be as prolific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike_D Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Some conflicting signals with this. K index being on the high side is actually not good for discrete cells. The NAM's 24 hour outlook seeming to fail better QPF argues against that index measure being so high - so it is unclear to me why the NAM is not more. The NAM is actually the best tool out there for convective initialization inside of 24 hours; this is known to those that follow model particulars. Shear is good - no question. But, heights are not falling as impressively as they were out west of here earlier in the day (where there was only sparse realization as it is). I think the Michigan under achievement, however, is because of Lake Michigan contamination wending its way across the state N of I-96, limiting development to along the boundary there. Without that, I see a lot of bow echoes with the linear wind shear profiles they had. So there is a lot of confused pros and cons on this. My experience though is that these wide open cfropa events with lead day-time heating runs into trouble because of pre-frontal trough advecting a quasi-dry line seaward prior to better jet mechanics arriving. That's been my biggest issue with this from the start. I don't think the NAM is handling the overnight too well - I'm not seeing where that QPF eruption over SE NY and eastern PA at and prior to 12z is coming from. HPC currently is analyzing the warm boundary on top of or exceeding these areas already, so they should be nocturnally stablized in a barotropic hell over night there. This boundary doesn't appear to have much resistance in accelerating across the rest of SNE through mid morning - ie, not much IB there, either. I think this dawns with discerned run at a hotter more humid day regionally, then stuff fires in the pre-frontal trough with some severe - to what extent, who knows, but SC numbers being up - watch out... But the front its self may not be as prolific. With deep layer shear vectors perpendicular to the weak low level forcing I think discrete development is the preferred mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 0z WRF has a nice line going through right around 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 NAM bufkit keeps lapse rates pretty steep all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 0z WRF has a nice line going through right around 18z. I bet that's nestled into the prefrontal trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I bet that's nestled into the prefrontal trough You would think so given how early this is. If true though I would think we could see more in the way of supercells possible, especially if were looking at vertical shear values in excess of 40 knots...going to be interesting to see how this plays out. Storm mode early on could be supercells but they may quickly form into a line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Not really seeing a "line" out of this, myself. Broken line, maybe. Actually it wouldn't surprise me if there is little to no action at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Ekster, What's your latest thoughts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Ekster, What's your latest thoughts?? I think I have a chance to get a svr storm IMBY today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I think I have a chance to get a svr storm IMBY today. Well that;s nice but what about this area? If you were still at BOX and working tonight what would you say in the AFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well that;s nice but what about this area? If you were still at BOX and working tonight what would you say in the AFD? I would say that skywarn activation is likely for sct svr thunderstorms moving into the western part of the cwa by 18-19z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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