CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Lapse rates seem a little better on this run, or at least the EML is a bit slower to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Also shows sfc dews getting above 70F 850mb dews at least +10C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Everyone stay safe! Charge those cameras! Watching 2 tornado shows at once on TV... better than we will ever see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 4000J of MLCAPE over PA at 9pm. Granted it's capped, but I don't remember anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 BOX: IN COMPARISON TO 12Z OBSERVATIONS...LATEST 0Z UPR AIR SOUNDINGSOUT OF DETROIT/PITTSBURGH/ALBANY HIGHLIGHT CONSIDERABLE MOISTENINGBETWEEN H9-H7...AND STEEPENING MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AS IS THE CASEWITH ALBANY. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY PLACES THE MID-LVL WARM FRONTIN THE VICINITY OF WRN/CENTRAL PA...EXPECTED TO SLIDE E INTO THEFCST RGN BY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 4000J of MLCAPE over PA at 9pm. Granted it's capped, but I don't remember anything like that. The 21z SPC SREF painting SBcapes over 3000, MLcapes over 2000, and MUcape over 3000 tomorrow across western sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The 21z SPC SREF painting SBcapes over 3000, MLcapes over 2000, and MUcape over 3000 tomorrow across western sections. Can't wait too see the radar pop with these storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 NAM not as impressive on this run. It does like the elevated stuff later on. That might be an issue for the morning, if the NAM is even in the ball park. Lets hope that clears quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 NAM not as impressive on this run. It does like the elevated stuff later on. That might be an issue for the morning, if the NAM is even in the ball park. Lets hope that clears quick. I'm not even sure what to think of the NAM...it's been so inconsistent. How did the NAM do today with everything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Can't wait too see the radar pop with these storms! Let's hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm not even sure what to think of the NAM...it's been so inconsistent. How did the NAM do today with everything? It was looking pretty good earlier, but not as impressive as the GFS. I'm just stating what it shows. The lapse rates are back to looking more mediocre, but that might be tied to a weird thing the NAM is doing with morning convection in se NY. It takes it and actually moves it ssw into the MA..lol. The NAM might be moderating the lapse rates thanks to those storms. It also moves in warmer 500 temps too. Don't know what to think, other than wait and see what the GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 It was looking pretty good earlier, but not as impressive as the GFS. I'm just stating what it shows. The lapse rates are back to looking more mediocre, but that might be tied to a weird thing the NAM is doing with morning convection in se NY. It takes it and actually moves it ssw into the MA..lol. The NAM might be moderating the lapse rates thanks to those storms. It also moves in warmer 500 temps too. Don't know what to think, other than wait and see what the GFS does. Yeah the NAM had a few really good runs in a row prior to tonight's 0z run...perhaps it could actually be overdoing the convection that occurs tonight but we'll see. Certainly lots of questions to still be answered. Although it's nice to still see the sREFS supporting the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 anyone wanna chase tomorrow since Wiz has a softball game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 anyone wanna chase tomorrow since Wiz has a softball game If my game gets cancelled tomorrow or something happens I'll let you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 If my game gets cancelled tomorrow or something happens I'll let you know. Im just messin with ya, do you have a cell phone? I should play for your team, I can still throw in the 80s occasionally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yeah the NAM had a few really good runs in a row prior to tonight's 0z run...perhaps it could actually be overdoing the convection that occurs tonight but we'll see. Certainly lots of questions to still be answered. Although it's nice to still see the sREFS supporting the GFS. Just hope any crap gets out in the morning. If that stuff lingers, it will muck up heating. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Just hope any crap gets out in the morning. If that stuff lingers, it will muck up heating. Something to watch. Where would you see anything developing overnight? Looks rather bleak right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Im just messin with ya, do you have a cell phone? I should play for your team, I can still throw in the 80s occasionally No, I don't...my friend does though, I could give you that number just in case something changes...or you give me yours. Well I don't play, I do the scorebook for where I went to high school so I don't think you'd be eligible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Just hope any crap gets out in the morning. If that stuff lingers, it will muck up heating. Something to watch. Yeah it definitely would inhibit heating and it also could kill lapse rates. It could also cause some subsidence depending on how big of a complex develops...if any. With such a strong departing high though and ridging aloft perhaps this wins out and prevents much from forming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 the flow turns northwest on the other side of the ridge axis... I still dont think that stuff hits us we shall see.. ill look closer once im off the mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The spc sref pretty much says that the odds of having 500-700mb lapse rates > 7c/km are very good here tomorrow. That pretty much ups the ante here vs any other ordinary new england severe event. now we just need the timing of things to work out and sfc dews to be respectable. If all that comes together then the event should be anomalously good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The spc sref pretty much says that the odds of having 500-700mb lapse rates > 7c/km are very good here tomorrow. That pretty much ups the ante here vs any other ordinary new england severe event. now we just need the timing of things to work out and sfc dews to be respectable. If all that comes together then the event should be anomalously good. Sweet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The spc sref pretty much says that the odds of having 500-700mb lapse rates > 7c/km are very good here tomorrow. That pretty much ups the ante here vs any other ordinary new england severe event. now we just need the timing of things to work out and sfc dews to be respectable. If all that comes together then the event should be anomalously good. Ekster dropping bombs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 RUC and HRRR want to bring stuff through early morning. Not what I wanted to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 RUC and HRRR want to bring stuff through early morning. Not what I wanted to see Now that I've looked closely I really don't think we are going to see much tonight...still relatively dry aloft thanks to the departing high pressure and a bit of a cap around 500-600mb or so. Might pop a few storms but they could be short-lived...if this happens it shouldn't be much of an issue for tomorrow, and if anything could leave some boundaries behind which could play a role later i nthe day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The NAM just looks awfully wrong with its surface reflectivity product.. It wants to develop widespread rain out of nowhere.. not buying that. Not really buying a whole lot of anything.. nothing elevated firing up and I think the majority of any MCS clips NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Now that I've looked closely I really don't think we are going to see much tonight...still relatively dry aloft thanks to the departing high pressure and a bit of a cap around 500-600mb or so. Might pop a few storms but they could be short-lived...if this happens it shouldn't be much of an issue for tomorrow, and if anything could leave some boundaries behind which could play a role later i nthe day. Yeah like I just said in the post below I am not feeling MCS or debris will be an issue tomorrow. My main three areas of concern today were: (1)Clouds (2)Dry Air (3)Dewpoints One and three are no longer a big concern for me when I look at current trends. Doesn't look like much is firing up tonight that would hit SNE. Dewpoints reached near 70 in the midatlantic which suggusts we shouldn't have much of a problem doing so. I think two will not be resolved until we actually see the storms pop off. Let's just hope our storms are not too finicky about the dry air tomorrow. Hell, lets hope the dry air maximizes downdrafts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yeah like I just said in the post below I am not feeling MCS or debris will be an issue tomorrow. My main three areas of concern today were: (1)Clouds (2)Dry Air (3)Dewpoints One and three are no longer a big concern for me when I look at current trends. Doesn't look like much is firing up tonight that would hit SNE. Dewpoints reached near 70 in the midatlantic which suggusts we shouldn't have much of a problem doing so. I think two will not be resolved until we actually see the storms pop off. Let's just hope our storms are not too finicky about the dry air tomorrow. Hell, lets hope the dry air maximizes downdrafts. Well forecast soundings in the morning should give us an indication on number two and just watching mesoanalysis through the day. Plus, I would think at at ALY/OKX may do an 18z balloon launch. I'm not overly worried about 3...but 1...moreso, only b/c that tends to be an issue here, however, I don't feel all that nervous with a good SW/SSW sfc flow and low-level flow with W/NW flow in the mid/upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 RUC and HRRR want to bring stuff through early morning. Not what I wanted to see July 1995 was in the early morning. Youll have lower LLCs and still plenty of time for heating for a second afternoon bout of severe. Your enemy is the marine layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Well forecast soundings in the morning should give us an indication on number two and just watching mesoanalysis through the day. Plus, I would think at at ALY/OKX may do an 18z balloon launch. I'm not overly worried about 3...but 1...moreso, only b/c that tends to be an issue here, however, I don't feel all that nervous with a good SW/SSW sfc flow and low-level flow with W/NW flow in the mid/upper levels. Well.. convection is waning hundreds of miles away.. We have no cloud cover over us now and no fog or stratus expected to develop.. its looking pretty damn good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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