weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 If we get upgraded to moderate risk I'll hear Wiz's girlish scream from across town I'm already expecting a mod risk...maybe not with the 6z outlook but with the 1300 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 This bodes well for us? I am going to look at forecast data after the 00z runs come in. I'd still probably rather chase the slight risk in Nebraska tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 If we get upgraded to moderate risk I'll hear Wiz's girlish scream from across town I hear they love to replay his girlish screams that one time on the HAM radio, they saved it and pull it out for laughter on a boring day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I am going to look at forecast data after the 00z runs come in. I'd still probably rather chase the slight risk in Nebraska tho. Good...make sure you post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I'm already expecting a mod risk...maybe not with the 6z outlook but with the 1300 outlook. lol I'm not haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I hear they love to replay his girlish screams that one time on the HAM radio, they saved it and pull it out for laughter on a boring day. That story is completely fake....well the story isn't I don't think but that wasn't me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 lol I'm not haha Seeing craven sig svr of 5000 is pretty eye opening...plus adding in everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 many stations in Eastern PA, Maryland, and Virginia are reporting 70 degree dewpoints or slightly higher. Mt. Holly has a good AFD. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 751 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ENDING TIME MAY BE TOO LATE PENDING CONVECTION. SO FAR THE EARLY HEAT INDEX CRITERIA FOR ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS WAS REACHED YDA AT PHL, TDY AT ILG SO FAR. WITH TOMORROW EXPECTED TO COME AT OR CLOSE TO CRITERIA AGAIN. THE FACT ITS AN EARLY HEAT WAVE (PLUS WE DID NOT GET RELIEF TODAY) WE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. DEW POINTS HAVE POOLED WEST OF US TODAY AND EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE MIXING ON WEDNESDAY THE PRESENCE OF A LEE SIDE TROF SHOULD POOL THE DEW POINTS AGAIN. WE COULD BE WRONG IF CONVECTION FIRES AS EARLY AS THE WRF-NMM HAS ABOUT THE HEAT, BUT WE OPTED FOR A CONVECTIVE TIMING CLOSER TO THE SREF AND GFS GIVEN HOW FAR WEST THE COLD FRONT IS TDY AND THE TIME NEEDED TO DEVELOP THE LEE SIDE TROF. AS FOR THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, THERE IS NO VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE, BUT THE OVERALL FRONTAL TIMING STILL LOOKS GOOD. THE VERY LOW STAT GUIDANCE POPS LOOK BEFUDDLING GIVEN THE LATTER. THEY DO DROP THE DEW POINTS (AGAIN) DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT THAT DOES NOT SEEM AS PROBABLE BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED LEE SIDE TROF. IT WOULD APPEAR THIS IS THE REASON (TOO MUCH CIN) THAT POPS ARE TOO LOW AND THAT THE HI RES WRF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH CONVECTION AT ALL. ON THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM ARE THE ACTUAL MODEL FCST DEW POINTS WHICH ARE AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 70S. WE TRIED TO SORT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THEM USING THE RAOB PROGRAM AND WE ARRIVED AT A MLCAPE OF 2000-2500J WITH TT(S) IN THE LOWER 50S. THE FCST CIN ALL BUT DISAPPEARS, IT IS CLOSE. WE DID NOTE THAT THE FCST BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. ALSO THE FCST MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE. ON THE OTHER HAND THE FORECAST EML DOES NOT DISAPPEAR, BUT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT DURING THE MORNING LEAVING MORE TYPICAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUFFICE THERE ARE ENOUGH INDICATIONS TO GO ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND INCLUDE SOME ENHANCED WORDING WITH THE TSRAS. TSRA TIMING WAS CLOSE TO SREF PROB OF SVR TSRA PEAKING AROUND 21Z IN THE DE VALLEY. SPC HAS KEPT US IN THE SLIGHT RISK. THE MODELS REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT ABOUT A QUICK EXIT OR DISSIPATION OF CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SUITE OF MODEL RUNS HAS BECOME MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE CAA. A BIT SKEPTICAL BECAUSE OF THE POSN OF THE FORECAST JET, SO WE WENT ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MINS AND LEANED TOWARD THE HIER GFS MOS MAX TEMPS ON THU. ON THU THE CHANNELIZED VORT MAX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA, SO WE CONTINUED THE POPLESS FORECAST. AS FAR AS WINDS, THE HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, SO WE WENT WITH THE LOWER GFS MOS. IT ALSO SEEMS TO FIT THE LOOK OF THE ISOBARIC PATTERN OVER OUR CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 lol I'm not haha I think they've become just a shade more conservative in the northeast recently. The last few times they amped up the outlooks in the NE, they were pretty big disappointments. Though it seems like a lot of the recent disappointments have been because of a lack of good steep ML lapse rates...or even just decent. We know we'll have the shear and we know we'll have the lapse rates, we just want to make sure we actually get some storms to fire tomorrow. Drier dewpoints or a lack of sfc heating would probably be the way we'd get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 If you look at the SPC mesoanalysis graphics, you can see what the EML does for you. MLCAPE values currently in excess of 4000 J/KG in a portion of central PA. That's about as high as they get in the northeast. If our "normal" northeast lapse rates were in place, you could easily shave 1500 joules off that. +15 to +17c 850 dews are very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 does anyone care to comment on the possibility of elevated convection with the warm front that rolls through over night tonight? maybe that's where we get our best shot at storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I think they've become just a shade more conservative in the northeast recently. The last few times they amped up the outlooks in the NE, they were pretty big disappointments. Though it seems like a lot of the recent disappointments have been because of a lack of good steep ML lapse rates...or even just decent. We know we'll have the shear and we know we'll have the lapse rates, we just want to make sure we actually get some storms to fire tomorrow. Drier dewpoints or a lack of sfc heating would probably be the way we'd get screwed. We'll know by the 1630z outlook if this is the real deal or not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Weren't you the one who just posted about the -30c dew point at 700mb???? lol ha ha. yeah i suppose. but i wasn't looking at bufkit at that point. man the 00z soundings from PA into OH/MI look nice. look at PIT. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Wow... I think any convection from today should ride well north of us by looking at wv... thats a godsend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 does anyone care to comment on the possibility of elevated convection with the warm front that rolls through over night tonight? maybe that's where we get our best shot at storms? I haven't looked at this potential in great detail but we may see something roll through later tonight, possibly some sort of MCS which would come through in the early AM hours tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I haven't looked at this potential in great detail but we may see something roll through later tonight, possibly some sort of MCS which would come through in the early AM hours tomorrow. I see no MCS on any trajectory coming anywhere near us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 ha ha. yeah i suppose. but i wasn't looking at bufkit at that point. man the 00z soundings from PA into OH/MI look nice. look at PIT. LOL. lol and yeah the 00z soundings are sick. Tomorrow has the potential to be fun... let's see if all the pieces can actually fall into place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I see no MCS on any trajectory coming anywhere near us... Well like I said, I didn't look in great detail but I guess it isn't impossible we see some storms overnight...convective indices are favorable for development and usually we see something with warm fronts lifting northward so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 21z SPC SREF is initiating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 You guys have no idea how pumped I am for the 30% chance of a rotting thunderstorm clipping ASH tomorrow. No idea! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Ok, I'll ask the question that Wiz really wants to know... Mets, gun to head, will we see a confirmed TOR tomorrow in New England? WIZ... keep us posted on the SREF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I see no MCS on any trajectory coming anywhere near us... the flow turns northwest on the other side of the ridge axis... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Ok, I'll ask the question that Wiz really wants to know... Mets, gun to head, will we see a confirmed TOR tomorrow in New England? WIZ... keep us posted on the SREF! I don't think that's a question anyone can really answer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 HRRR has that convection coming through here as well as some new stuff forming along some sort of instability burst/LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Supercell composite parameter of 10!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Large area of sig tor of 2... 30% chance greater than 3 SICK!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Supercell composite parameter of 10!!! Omg!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 gfs map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Omg!! Look at the other maps I just posted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Off to bed... Working the am shows. Will be back by 330 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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