weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 These two graphics are sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 definitely a lot of positives. Hopefully this shakes out well...even if they don't survive the journey se to mby...I enjoy tracking these things. my concern at this stage is that punch of super dry mid level air after 20z or so. Those -30c 7h dews are a bit much. Might be part of why some guidance is relatively dry with the fropa. Interestingly the 18z GFS keeps the dry air out until after 21z back here. The 21z sounding for BDL and HFD is superb with strong shear, a big positive area, and a remnant EML. 18z GFS still shows pockets of mid level lapse rates near 8 c/km in this area at 21z along with 0-6km shear approaching 40 knots and 0-2km helicity near 200 m2/s2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The fact that Will negative Nancy is pulling some positives out of this is certainly comforting. There seems to be a nervous excitement vibe going on in here..The kind I know I felt before Gloria hit..I think we all know that feeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 If I could have today's weather and not one tstm for the rest of the summer...I think I'd take it. This Although, I enjoy a good storm, climo says I get a few t-storms, some strong, and probably no hail. I'd much prefer days like today for the next 100 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Interestingly the 18z GFS keeps the dry air out until after 21z back here. The 21z sounding for BDL and HFD is superb with strong shear, a big positive area, and a remnant EML. 18z GFS still shows pockets of mid level lapse rates near 8 c/km in this area at 21z along with 0-6km shear approaching 40 knots and 0-2km helicity near 200 m2/s2. 200 is a good number around here. If the 18z GFS and those parameters were realized...there would be some fun in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Interestingly the 18z GFS keeps the dry air out until after 21z back here. The 21z sounding for BDL and HFD is superb with strong shear, a big positive area, and a remnant EML. 18z GFS still shows pockets of mid level lapse rates near 8 c/km in this area at 21z along with 0-6km shear approaching 40 knots and 0-2km helicity near 200 m2/s2. yeah the GFS in general has been/is the best scenario. i'm sure even the lesser enthusiastic guidance would yield something anyway. by-the-way...how can you stand looking at bufkit with the temp spread so large? LOL. i have to adjust it season by season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The fact that Will negative Nancy is pulling some positives out of this is certainly comforting. There seems to be a nervous excitement vibe going on in here..The kind I know I felt before Gloria hit..I think we all know that feeling I think we all know the negatives, but at least we have a number of things that seem to be in our favor...and, the setup has improved if anything in the last 24 hours. That doesn't mean severe is a lock by any means, but usually we watch the setups sh*t the bed as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I think we all know the negatives, but at least we have a number of things that seem to be in our favor...and, the setup has improved if anything in the last 24 hours. That doesn't mean severe is a lock by any means, but usually we watch the setups sh*t the bed as we get closer. I know. To see all the mets all fairly keen on some severe wx tomorrow is good. I know you guys would never go ballls walls on severe wx inSNE..but this is as close as we've ever seen you all pretty stoked..in your own different ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 The lack of realization in Michigan today may be a red flag. They seem to lack a meaningful trigger - what has developed did so along the lake breeze boundary off of southern Lake Michigan, which extended toward the NE across the state during the afternoon. But by and large there appears to have been a lack of turn out. i'd rather not have too much convective overturning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Yeah I'm wondering is this is some sort of signal. that can go both way...the June event last year went to crap even though it was excellent the day before. In a set-up like this I'd rather have less cloud debris and less contamination of the EML Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 What also kind of worries me is neither of the AFD's (OKX/ALY/BOX) seem really gung-ho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 yeah the GFS in general has been/is the best scenario. i'm sure even the lesser enthusiastic guidance would yield something anyway. by-the-way...how can you stand looking at bufkit with the temp spread so large? LOL. i have to adjust it season by season. Weren't you the one who just posted about the -30c dew point at 700mb???? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 decent K-index forecasts for the GFS...33 in ORH...35 in CAN...and 30 in BDL...those are pretty decent for thunderstorms...showing that the GFS does not have too much of a dry air issue in the boundary layer. Dry air at 700mb is very common in outbreaks...indicative of EML air masses and conducive for strong winds, hail, and tornadogenesis. We start to get dry air below 800mb...then you have to start to be more concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 decent K-index forecasts for the GFS...33 in ORH...35 in CAN...and 30 in BDL...those are pretty decent for thunderstorms...showing that the GFS does not have too much of a dry air issue in the boundary layer. Dry air at 700mb is very common in outbreaks...indicative of EML air masses and conducive for strong winds, hail, and tornadogenesis. We start to get dry air below 800mb...then you have to start to be more concerned. Great post...just as long as we don't mix down that dry air...this is why we need to maintain a rich, moist low-level airmass and maintain it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 decent K-index forecasts for the GFS...33 in ORH...35 in CAN...and 30 in BDL...those are pretty decent for thunderstorms...showing that the GFS does not have too much of a dry air issue in the boundary layer. Dry air at 700mb is very common in outbreaks...indicative of EML air masses and conducive for strong winds, hail, and tornadogenesis. We start to get dry air below 800mb...then you have to start to be more concerned. Yeah dry air up there won't stop these storms if its because of a remnant EML...those lapse rates will be excellent and the storms should explode through that layer. We definitely do not want it to mix down to the BL and dry it out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Great post...just as long as we don't mix down that dry air...this is why we need to maintain a rich, moist low-level airmass and maintain it. It's nuts that the 18z NAM has 3500 j/kg of MLCAPE in ORH lol...but it's very dry above 900mb...almost unbelievably dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 decent K-index forecasts for the GFS...33 in ORH...35 in CAN...and 30 in BDL...those are pretty decent for thunderstorms...showing that the GFS does not have too much of a dry air issue in the boundary layer. Dry air at 700mb is very common in outbreaks...indicative of EML air masses and conducive for strong winds, hail, and tornadogenesis. We start to get dry air below 800mb...then you have to start to be more concerned. 850 td's are good and a rather high KI near 30 is a good sign like you said. If 850 was dry, then I'd worry but those EML outbreaks always have a dry layer. Plus, it makes for good downdraft potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 It's nuts that the 18z NAM has 3500 j/kg of MLCAPE in ORH lol...but it's very dry above 900mb...almost unbelievably dry This is pretty crazy the differences between the NAM/GFS in regards to that dry air. Just going to have to nowcast it I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Attica is browsing in here If he's in a SNE severe thread something must be up!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 This is pretty crazy the differences between the NAM/GFS in regards to that dry air. Just going to have to nowcast it I guess. I can't believe you're going to keep score at a high school baseball game instead of chase. wtf???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 if we end up getting some thunderstorms late tonight/early tomorrow morning....they could be severe too. Pretty decent instability (2000 j/kg elevated CAPE) along with strong low-level shear to maintain a possible MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I can't believe you're going to keep score at a high school baseball game instead of chase. wtf???? Well as much as I'd love to chase my heart is also with Conard baseball...I've been with the team since my senior year...I used to do pitching charts and pitching stuff then this year I got to do the scorebook b/c the guy who did it is on the old side and can't really drive anymore. I like New Britain though...I've seen some nasty storms there in the past...including 1.5'' hail in 2002...and I was at a Rock Cats game once when I was in 6th grade...May of 2000..it was a Sunday...NASTY storm, we all had to go to the bathrooms b/c there was a tornado warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Attica is browsing in here If he's in a SNE severe thread something must be up!! He's probably just laughing at us getting interested in a slight risk that might produce a few quarter sized hailers and a 65mph wind gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Pretty classic northeast EML sounding at PIT this evening. +11c at 700, with an 850mb dewpoint of +15c...low level moisture is deep and you can see the cap. EML itself isn't quite as deep as a lot of cases in our study, but close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 He's probably just laughing at us getting interested in a slight risk that might produce a few quarter sized hailers and a 65mph wind gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Pretty classic northeast EML sounding at PIT this evening. +11c at 700, with an 850mb dewpoint of +15c...low level moisture is deep and you can see the cap. This bodes well for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 tomorrow looks better than any day since 2006 IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 He's probably just laughing at us getting interested in a slight risk that might produce a few quarter sized hailers and a 65mph wind gust. If we get upgraded to moderate risk I'll hear Wiz's girlish scream from across town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 He's probably just laughing at us getting interested in a slight risk that might produce a few quarter sized hailers and a 65mph wind gust. Bingo. I'm kind of laughing too but it is fun to see a little glimmer of excitement. I really can't wait until the first big snow threat is showing up in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 If we get upgraded to moderate risk I'll hear Wiz's girlish scream from across town I'm already expecting a mod risk...maybe not with the 6z outlook but with the 1300 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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