Tropopause_Fold Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I wonder if Andy is humping is tandy to spit out some svr wx ideas for tomorrow lol his dot matrix printer just spit out the 00z NGM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 his dot matrix printer just spit out the 00z NGM. From last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 From last night LOL. yeah that's what i meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 there's over 4000 j/kg of MLCAPE in central PA underneath those steep mid-level lapse rates at the moment according to the SPC mesoanalysis...obviously they are capped off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 just eyeballing the PSU soundings...is the 21z bdl td 23C?? LOL. A nice 73-74F dewpoint, lol. There are some low 70s dews in southern Ontario today so even though the NAM is probably going too nuts like the GFS, hopefully the trend of it keeping the BL winds more SSW is a good sign for tomorrow. Even if we can keep like 68F dews around to maybe flirting with 70F, that should be plenty assuming we can get some reasonable sfc heating. We just don't want to get around to 18z tomorrow with 240 winds and a 63F dew...we'd be cooked at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 just eyeballing the PSU soundings...is the 21z bdl td 23C?? LOL. Sounds like the NAM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Nice 18z soundings from lower Michigan. Looks like a damaging wind threat up there with unidirectional wind profile... notice BL and 500mb both S/W. The trough at 500 mb seems to damp out a bit as it approaches SNE and so you wind up with mid level winds due west or even a bit north of west while BL winds stay SSW creating more favorable hodographs for tornadoes. A lot of the big northeast svr events happen the day after it happens in MI...and Nebr the day before. I will look at more data tonight after the 00z runs come in to see what the deal is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 From last night He's papering the den up with FOUS data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 A lot of the big northeast svr events happen the day after it happens in MI...and Nebr the day before. I will look at more data tonight after the 00z runs come in to see what the deal is. If you go back and look at a lot of the EML events in your paper the synoptic setup for this seems fairly similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 If I jump onboard now is that a bad omen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 If I jump onboard now is that a bad omen? Wait until cweat posts a RUC forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Wait until cweat posts a RUC forecast. LOL..I won't post it..I'll just think it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 A lot of the big northeast svr events happen the day after it happens in MI...and Nebr the day before. I will look at more data tonight after the 00z runs come in to see what the deal is. Several posts mentioned this over the last couple of days... The ghosts of 1953 haunt us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 There actually isn't a whole lot going on (at least yet) in the upper Lakes today. Though they were always going to have the issue of keeping winds backed at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Sweet. looks pretty dry above the sfc... that could mix out easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 looks pretty dry above the sfc... that could mix out easily Yeah...wouldn't shock me. Especially with a little downslope off of the Monads for a little extra mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 nam looks dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Sweet. Is that a sarcastic sweet? I don't really know how to read those? Is that good sounding for a severe event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 NAM is dry over SNE...however, looks like wind shear increased as the 500mb gradient really tightened up compared to the previous run....10 kt or so increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 NAM is dry over SNE...however, looks like wind shear increased as the 500mb gradient really tightened up compared to the previous run....10 kt or so increase. Yeah I wouldn't rely on the NAM QPF forecast lol Our 12km-WRF is developing quite a bit of convection along the front tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 NAM is dry over SNE...however, looks like wind shear increased as the 500mb gradient really tightened up compared to the previous run....10 kt or so increase. not like the nam never misses convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I hope its another mcs like yesterday morning, perfect timing for watering lawns and gardens, then enjoy a beautiful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 not like the nam never misses convection Or develops convection where it doesn't belong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I'm intrigued by the potential if only for the recent posters and their knowledge... Not like having a Wiz only thread where he posts to himself every 5 minutes at 2AM Been a while since much of SNE had severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Or develops convection where it doesn't belong lol the mid/upper lvl setup looks good, which is focus on more than other things usually -- i'd still rather have the nam show something if i were up there, but it's not a huge deal. now if you guys had our mid-to-upper 90s... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Yeah I wouldn't rely on the NAM QPF forecast lol Our 12km-WRF is developing quite a bit of convection along the front tomorrow. BTV WRF goes gangbusters too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 OT, but did anyone notice that the MCS that came off the coast yesterday is trundling over the Gulf Stream off the SE coast and has flared up big time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 OT, but did anyone notice that the MCS that came off the coast yesterday is trundling over the Gulf Stream off the SE coast and has flared up big time? I actually saw that on the IR loop a bit ago. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/animir.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 BTV WRF goes gangbusters too. I love that they made that available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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