CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 If you're gonna bash me..at least do it when I'm online...there were some degrading and nasty comments you guys made..and when I got home last night and saw them I was very hurt Which ones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 At least back this way the NAM has pumped up the instability at 12z.... with somewhat steeper mid level lapse rates. GFS has been relatively steadfast. Maybe that trend will continue. If today's 12z soundings are any indication, then I think the GFS is more correct. I was looking at the NAM/GFS yesterday and seeing how it tracked the EML out in the lakes and it really didn't have much of one by 12z today in BUF/PIT but obviously that is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 If today's 12z soundings are any indication, then I think the GFS is more correct. I was looking at the NAM/GFS yesterday and seeing how it tracked the EML out in the lakes and it really didn't have much of one by 12z today in BUF/PIT but obviously that is wrong. Yeah it's going to be a crapshoot... and really dependent on what happens with tonight's convection upstream I think. The fact the GFS has been so impressive and the NAM at least is trending in the right direction is a good sign. I also like the fact we have some 70F dew points on the other side of that warm front in SE/SC PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Which ones? They're too painful for me to rehash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Yeah it's going to be a crapshoot... and really dependent on what happens with tonight's convection upstream I think. The fact the GFS has been so impressive and the NAM at least is trending in the right direction is a good sign. I also like the fact we have some 70F dew points on the other side of that warm front in SE/SC PA. I wish we could see the euro soundings. It's a little sharper with the trough and better PVA into NNE as compared to the last 2 runs. That's about all I can tell from looking at home. FWIW the NAM also was too weak with the EML overhead last week too. At least the GFS is consistent. Whether it's right or do we meet in the middle is something else. If the GFS is correct, than Wiz would be a happy man. Not too often you have almost 90 degree crossover at the surface to 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I wish we could see the euro soundings. It's a little sharper with the trough and better PVA into NNE as compared to the last 2 runs. That's about all I can tell from looking at home. FWIW the NAM also was too weak with the EML overhead last week too. At least the GFS is consistent. Whether it's right or do we meet in the middle is something else. If the GFS is correct, than Wiz would be a happy man. Not too often you have almost 90 degree crossover at the surface to 500mb. 00z looked OK...better down toward NYC than say BDL. haven't seen 12z yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 00z looked OK...better down toward NYC than say BDL. haven't seen 12z yet. actually BDL gets better toward 00z. though a crapload of dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 They're too painful for me to rehash drama queen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 A couple questions... What is the best threat? Hail or wind? (I wont even mention TOR lol) Also Mets, give me a town in NE where you would wanna be as of now for this event Lastly, if we wake up tomorrow as see widespread 70s for dews.. is the event for sure on? Or what else can go wrong besides low dews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 A couple questions... What is the best threat? Hail or wind? (I wont even mention TOR lol) Also Mets, give me a town in NE where you would wanna be as of now for this event Lastly, if we wake up tomorrow as see widespread 70s for dews.. is the event for sure on? Or what else can go wrong besides low dews Lack of sfc heating could be an issue if we get a lot of cloud debris in the morning from a leftover MCS. Dews can start high but then fall during the day if we get too much W component to the wind. Right now, I think things look cautiously optimistic, but those are two things to keep in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The SPC WRF shows the complex of storms coming through in the morning. That's sort of a red flag that it's showing this, but if it does happen..lets hope we can recharge the atmosphere a bit. Even if the sun comes out by 10-11am...that's fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The SPC WRF shows the complex of storms coming through in the morning. That's sort of a red flag that it's showing this, but if it does happen..lets hope we can recharge the atmosphere a bit. Even if the sun comes out by 10-11am...that's fine. So we get an early morning squall line (fetish for Will) and then hope the sun comes out? That is awful if that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The SPC WRF shows the complex of storms coming through in the morning. That's sort of a red flag that it's showing this, but if it does happen..lets hope we can recharge the atmosphere a bit. Even if the sun comes out by 10-11am...that's fine. What's the link for the SPC WRF? I can't seem to find mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 12z euro @ 18Z bdl: sbcape: 1381 mucape: 1432 tt: 51 li: -4 somewhat tall/skinny cape profile. lapse rates are marginal...little tongue of warmer air kind of messing with things in the 7h to 6h layer on this run...that feature doesn't exist further SW toward NYC so things are fatter down that way...and more like 2200 jkg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 What's the link for the SPC WRF? I can't seem to find mine. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 What's the link for the SPC WRF? I can't seem to find mine. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/ there's a morning complex and nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 So we get an early morning squall line (fetish for Will) and then hope the sun comes out? That is awful if that happens Just saying what it shows, but we've had plenty of early morning/late aftn events. It's all good if it clears out by mid morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Nice 18z soundings from lower Michigan. Looks like a damaging wind threat up there with unidirectional wind profile... notice BL and 500mb both S/W. The trough at 500 mb seems to damp out a bit as it approaches SNE and so you wind up with mid level winds due west or even a bit north of west while BL winds stay SSW creating more favorable hodographs for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 12z euro @ 18Z bdl: sbcape: 1381 mucape: 1432 tt: 51 li: -4 somewhat tall/skinny cape profile. lapse rates are marginal...little tongue of warmer air kind of messing with things in the 7h to 6h layer on this run...that feature doesn't exist further SW toward NYC so things are fatter down that way...and more like 2200 jkg. Thanks for posting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Nice 18z soundings from lower Michigan. Looks like a damaging wind threat up there with unidirectional wind profile... notice BL and 500mb both S/W. The trough at 500 mb seems to damp out a bit as it approaches SNE and so you wind up with mid level winds due west or even a bit north of west while BL winds stay SSW creating more favorable hodographs for tornadoes. At least the trough starts to dig southeast to give some height falls. Height falls at least tell us that we have some forcing going on..whether it be cooling mid levels or just some weak lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 At least the trough starts to dig southeast to give some height falls. Height falls at least tell us that we have some forcing going on..whether it be cooling mid levels or just some weak lift. Yup. Heights actually fall pretty quickly. This synoptic setup is definitely similar to some of the biggies in NE history. There have been a lot of similar setups that have failed to perform, though, due to all sorts of issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Yup. Heights actually fall pretty quickly. This synoptic setup is definitely similar to some of the biggies in NE history. There have been a lot of similar setups that have failed to perform, though, due to all sorts of issues. Take a pick... In this case, I can almost foresee a pre-frontal trough due to intense heating, tending to result into a focus for convergence but premature to the better jet mechanics arriving; and then this presaging action advects seaward taking a ...quasi dry-line with. Then the cold front comes through with the jet dynamics, but because the theta-e was robbed, not much happens. I can't begin to count how often I have seen this happen, particularly when the shear is derived more unidirectional than helicoidal. The best severe around these parts seems to happen when a you get a nacen warm front. That said, it's been a few years since we have seen a bona fide squalline - the kind where everyone gets 40+mph outflow winds with a few embedded severe, in a solid line from central NE to NYC.... Those are a lot of fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Wow, the 18z NAM kind of went nuts with dewpoints. It looks like it does a better job of keeping the sfc more out of the SSW through 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Wow, the 18z NAM kind of went nuts with dewpoints. It looks like it does a better job of keeping the sfc more out of the SSW through 18z. certainly makes for a nicer look to those profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Wow, the 18z NAM kind of went nuts with dewpoints. It looks like it does a better job of keeping the sfc more out of the SSW through 18z. There's a lot of high td air lurking over the mid atlantic. Will be interesting to see how much we advect up here after midnight and during tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 SPC SREF probabilities are pretty damn good. There is about a 50% chance of Sig Tor of 3 or greater near BDL/Springfield at 21z tomorrow. There is a greater than 30% chance of MLCAPE of 3000 J/kg or greater in Western CT/MA...and a greater than 90% chance of MLCAPE of 2000 j/kg or greater in nearly the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Some of those MUCAPEs are outrageous throughout northern OH, southern Otario and MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 certainly makes for a nicer look to those profiles. They are probably overdone, but its nice to see them trend better. It hopefully reduces the worry of having the wind go more WSW and drying out the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I wonder if Andy is humping is tandy to spit out some svr wx ideas for tomorrow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 There's a lot of high td air lurking over the mid atlantic. Will be interesting to see how much we advect up here after midnight and during tomorrow. just eyeballing the PSU soundings...is the 21z bdl td 23C?? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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