CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Is IJD sounding similiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Is IJD sounding similiar? Didn't look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Didn't look Cool thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I think the biggest worry tomorrow is going to be instability to overcome any weak cap and also help to sustain storms. Shear looks pretty nice. GFS has dew point getting into the low 70s which is probably too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The turning is pretty good. Usually we don't have too much directional shear like that. Rather impressive crossover of surface and 500mb winds. Of course, instability is the bigger question I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The turning is pretty good. Usually we don't have too much directional shear like that. Rather impressive crossover of surface and 500mb winds. Of course, instability is the bigger question I guess. Great... Those winds are more south which gives us zero chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Great... Those winds are more south which gives us zero chance That's not necessarily true. Storm motion would be from the west or perhaps wnw. That limits marine taint. We are plenty warm with ssw-sw winds, but I'd also like to see it come in between 4-5pm or so. Any later, and the atmosphere can stabilize a bit from the sw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I think the biggest worry tomorrow is going to be instability to overcome any weak cap and also help to sustain storms. Shear looks pretty nice. GFS has dew point getting into the low 70s which is probably too high. Yeah and who knows what kind of crap we'll have in the AM. I'm glad to see the NAM has steepened lapse rates some. GFS is still very unstable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Yeah and who knows what kind of crap we'll have in the AM. I'm glad to see the NAM has steepened lapse rates some. GFS is still very unstable. I think the dew points are probably the biggest worry tomorrow outside of maybe any cloud debris in the morning. The low 70s dews are unlikely to happen, but hopefully we can get those winds to be SSW and pool some upper 60s across out area. With 67-68F type dews, we'd probably be fine. I'm just worried about seeing like 64F by 18z which would lessen our chances at something big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I think the dew points are probably the biggest worry tomorrow outside of maybe any cloud debris in the morning. The low 70s dews are unlikely to happen, but hopefully we can get those winds to be SSW and pool some upper 60s across out area. With 67-68F type dews, we'd probably be fine. I'm just worried about seeing like 64F by 18z which would lessen our chances at something big. Well things are awfully juicy just to our SW so I think we'll start out OK. My concern is that the prefrontal trough swings through early and winds veer and start to dry us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Pretty classic EML sitting over the great lakes today. EML shows up nicely on the 12z pit and buf soundings. I'm hoping we can get a complex to develop over MI and ride around the ridge into NY tonight in classic EML-setup fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Pretty classic EML sitting over the great lakes today. EML shows up nicely on the 12z pit and buf soundings. I'm hoping we can get a complex to develop over MI and ride around the ridge into NY tonight in classic EML-setup fashion. Just in time to spoil tomorrow? lol GFS has a nice EML look to it for parts of tomorrow. BDL has mid level lapse rates approaching 8 c/km for a period of time around 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Pretty classic EML sitting over the great lakes today. EML shows up nicely on the 12z pit and buf soundings. I'm hoping we can get a complex to develop over MI and ride around the ridge into NY tonight in classic EML-setup fashion. Nope - getting shunted SE and just missing us; much in the same reason we are not getting the heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Just in time to spoil tomorrow? lol GFS has a nice EML look to it for parts of tomorrow. BDL has mid level lapse rates approaching 8 c/km for a period of time around 18z tomorrow. Some of the best svr events in New England have occurred in the wake of a departing EML plume when there is good shear and relatively high dewpoints. Get those dews up there, and we could be talking a really good event...perhaps more than one wave of svr wx too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Pretty classic EML sitting over the great lakes today. EML shows up nicely on the 12z pit and buf soundings. I'm hoping we can get a complex to develop over MI and ride around the ridge into NY tonight in classic EML-setup fashion. Originally it looked like we could get those lapse rates into SNE tomorrow, but it looks like that will be shunted to the south and southwest. What's your take on things? I think we worked out the pros and cons pretty well so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Some of the best svr events in New England have occurred in the wake of a departing EML plume when there is good shear and relatively high dewpoints. Get those dews up there, and we could be talking a really good event...perhaps more than one wave of svr wx too. I was thinking the actual cold front could produce a decent round of storms, since that will have the better dynamics. I mentioned earlier perhaps seeing two rounds, but just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Some of the best svr events in New England have occurred in the wake of a departing EML plume when there is good shear and relatively high dewpoints. Get those dews up there, and we could be talking a really good event...perhaps more than one wave of svr wx too. Yes... the ingredients are there... getting them to match up well and get the timing right will be an issue. Forecast soundings look damn good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Originally it looked like we could get those lapse rates into SNE tomorrow, but it looks like that will be shunted to the south and southwest. What's your take on things? I think we worked out the pros and cons pretty well so far. GFS seems to keep lapse rates pretty steep through 21z in western SNE. Definitely a signal of that remnant EML plume. I imagine some of this is going to depend on what happens to upstream convection over the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Honestly the best thing this event has going for it is Kevin's stamp of disapproval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Some of the best svr events in New England have occurred in the wake of a departing EML plume when there is good shear and relatively high dewpoints. Get those dews up there, and we could be talking a really good event...perhaps more than one wave of svr wx too. Does this look to you like more than our typical cold fropa in New England where we get a handful of reports? Are you more psyched up than usual for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Does this look to you like more than our typical cold fropa in New England where we get a handful of reports? Are you more psyched up than usual for this one? I think your pants are going to get blown right off your fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 GFS seems to keep lapse rates pretty steep through 21z in western SNE. Definitely a signal of that remnant EML plume. I imagine some of this is going to depend on what happens to upstream convection over the Great Lakes. The better lapse rates seem to be to the south, but yeah the GFS is pretty good for most of SNE. Even if you look at the SREFs you can see how the plume gets squashed south, but replacing this is better shear..so perhaps it's a wash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Originally it looked like we could get those lapse rates into SNE tomorrow, but it looks like that will be shunted to the south and southwest. What's your take on things? I think we worked out the pros and cons pretty well so far. Models are still at odds. Take a look at the difference in the sounding between NAM and GFS for ORH tomorrow at 18z: The GFS on the top shows much better lapse rate between 500-700mb than the NAM. The NAM seems to wash out any remnant EML where there is still some semblance of it on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Models are still at odds. Take a look at the difference in the sounding between NAM and GFS for ORH tomorrow at 18z: The GFS on the top shows much better lapse rate between 500-700mb than the NAM. The NAM seems to wash out any remnant EML where there is still some semblance of it on the GFS. At least back this way the NAM has pumped up the instability at 12z.... with somewhat steeper mid level lapse rates. GFS has been relatively steadfast. Maybe that trend will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Honestly the best thing this event has going for it is Kevin's stamp of disapproval. I've been ignoring your and Will 's bashing of me the last few days. It's been hurtful and uncalled for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I've been ignoring your and Will 's bashing of me the last few days. It's been hurtful and uncalled for lol you're such a baby You're skilled at instigating... forecasting just isn't your thing. We all are skilled at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The NAM is ugly for whatever reason. I don't know if it's tied to some leftover stuff or convection early on down by NYC, but that's ugly. I'm not sure what it's doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 lol you're such a baby If you're gonna bash me..at least do it when I'm online...there were some degrading and nasty comments you guys made..and when I got home last night and saw them I was very hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.