CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The SREFs have improved over the last 24 hours. If you look at trough position and shear, it's better than the runs showed yesterday. You can see that by clicking on the valid hr, and it gives you the last several runs so you can compare. Yeah unlike most events that look good here 72 hours out most models are looking as good or better as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The NAM still isn't relatively great and it has the mid-level front past by 0z and the whole event over by 0z, however, it does look better which is good. Still with great shear, solid instability. 6z GFS still looked good and still with coninued support from the sREFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 One other issue about tomorrow, and I believe this may have been highlighted in BOX AFD is Cape profiles don't exactly look fat They look decent to me, as far as SNE goes..at least the 06z does. The other thing that's on my mind, is if we have two areas of tstms. One along the pre-frontal trough and the other with the actual cold front. The actual cold front would have much better dynamics to accompany it. If that were to occur, it would be in the evening. NAM really isn't all that impressive, but it does back lower levels more to the ssw and sw which is good for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 They look decent to me, as far as SNE goes..at least the 06z does. The other thing that's on my mind, is if we have two areas of tstms. One along the pre-frontal trough and the other with the actual cold front. The actual cold front would have much better dynamics to accompany it. If that were to occur, it would be in the evening. NAM really isn't all that impressive, but it does back lower levels more to the ssw and sw which is good for the interior. Depending on how unstable we actually become tomorrow there could be two areas of storms...one with the pre-frontal trough and the other with the cold front. Usually though here we get most of our action with the pre-frontal...not all the time but the majority of the time that happens...this can either be a very good thing or it can be very bad. If we see action with the pre-frontal trough we could see more in the way of discrete cells, while the front will be more linear action. I think we'll see action with the pre-frontal but the question is will we see initiation earlier on from this which would not be a good thing...if we can hold off until 2 PM-ish that should be fine. Still lots of questions but it's good to see models for the most part staying pat or improving slightly at this stage of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 They look decent to me, as far as SNE goes..at least the 06z does. The other thing that's on my mind, is if we have two areas of tstms. One along the pre-frontal trough and the other with the actual cold front. The actual cold front would have much better dynamics to accompany it. If that were to occur, it would be in the evening. NAM really isn't all that impressive, but it does back lower levels more to the ssw and sw which is good for the interior. Yeah the worry is the prefrontal trough veers winds in the BL and we start drying out before the best forcing comes in. We've certainly seen that happen before. Timing is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 If the GFS at least holds serve from the past few runs I could see a hatched area for where the 30% contour is...don't think we'll see moderate risk quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 SREF still indicating excellent chances of having dewpoints at or greater than 70F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 This also blows, but like the NAM even the sREF dries things out a bit as the day goes on in the lower-levels...850 dewpoints fall during the day...would like to see those about +12C or so bt they fall to less than +10C. So low-level moisture (except at the sfc) may be lacking a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 I'm not expecting much of anything tomorrow. There will be some storms around, but the setup doesn't look like anything more than it ever does around here with a cold front in the summer downplay trolling...tomorrow is going to bring the danger. The setup is far better than most any avg mid-summer frontal passage that we get. That doesn't guarantee anything, of course, but I'm pretty impressed. At least the little of the 0z/12z guidance I've seen in the past few minutes is looking pretty damn good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 This also blows, but like the NAM even the sREF dries things out a bit as the day goes on in the lower-levels...850 dewpoints fall during the day...would like to see those about +12C or so bt they fall to less than +10C. So low-level moisture (except at the sfc) may be lacking a bit. KI looks to be near 30, but then dries out. KI near 30 is good, but you also want some dry air aloft to get good downdrafts. The NAM does dry things out quickly late aftn. GFS looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 downplay trolling...tomorrow is going to bring the danger. The setup is far better than most any avg mid-summer frontal passage that we get. That doesn't guarantee anything, of course, but I'm pretty impressed. At least the little of the 0z/12z guidance I've seen in the past few minutes is looking pretty damn good. I wasn't trolling. There just seems to be quite a few negatives people are looking at. i was hoping for a widespread severe outbreak..not a wath that results in 4 hail reports and 3 wind reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 SREF still indicating excellent chances of having dewpoints at or greater than 70F. it might be tough to get them that high...there's a region over the ohio valley with a lot of 70F+ dews and a small pocket in the mid-atlantic but neither covers much real estate - i guess if that air mass can move right overhead we'd have a shot at seeing widespread values over 70F. most everywhere else east of the plains is 63-68ish. given the nam's propensity to over-estimate dewpoints and it's only coming in mid 60s...even if it's the outlier you'd think the ballpark would be 64 to 68 or something like that. either way. at least there should be a few storms around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Good to see a nice turning of the winds with height as well as a steady increase in speed. However, this only continues to about 600mb and then winds decrease with height, but still turn clockwise slightly. So some + and - here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 I wasn't trolling. There just seems to be quite a few negatives people are looking at. i was hoping for a widespread severe outbreak..not a wath that results in 4 hail reports and 3 wind reports It's NE so yeah there will be negatives, but to go with a 6/6/10 (or whatever day that was) type letdown solution like last year is a bit of a stretch. Way more going for tomorrow than that day. Whether it produces or not, yeah, another story...but you shouldn't be too gloomy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 All in all tomorrow should be a pretty decent severe wx day, probably a bit better than our average events but given many of the negatives we are seeing we may not quite see a widespread outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Can't wait for the new day 2!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Can't wait for the new day 2!!!!! Really, your last post was kind of ho-hum.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Really, your last post was kind of ho-hum.. I'm thinking we see hatched with the new day 2. I do think eventually we see an upgrade to moderate...going to be much better than our normal events but probably just shy of a widespread outbreak. Something like high end slight/low end mod criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 I hope it isn't late today, I have to leave around 1:30 PM for baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 12z SPC WRF is pretty mundane for tomorrow..has some strong convection but nothing overly dramatic...still pretty far out into it's forecast period though. We'll have a better idea tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 I'm thinking we see hatched with the new day 2. I do think eventually we see an upgrade to moderate...going to be much better than our normal events but probably just shy of a widespread outbreak. Something like high end slight/low end mod criteria. We'll see. I think iso severe is best way to go, could be pretty nasty though in a few spots. N ORH/ to NW RI and maybe SW NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 SPC is usually very hesitant to put hatching anywhere in the northeast...we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 New outlook is out...no hatch..30% expanded southward..that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 We'll see. I think iso severe is best way to go, could be pretty nasty though in a few spots. N ORH/ to NW RI and maybe SW NH These are pretty good probs and the SREF has continued to hit this area so this will likely be the area of the highest threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 NO hatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AND SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT STRONGEST DESTABILIZATION PROBABLY WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL LEE SURFACE TROUGH FROM VIRGINIA INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS NEAR THESE SURFACE FEATURES MAY BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WEDNESDAY...AND CATEGORICAL/PROBABILITY LINES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS WELL AS FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 After last year's debacle no surprise we don't get hatching nor mention of tornadoes. Since it's still "missing" from the archive: WWUS40 KWNS 061514 WWP2 TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0272 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010 WT 0272 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 90% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 50% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 80% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 60% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 50% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26045 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU2. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 most of the 12z gfs ens members have measurable through Thu 0z in C and WNE... that's a good sign against a complete bust, which is probably what most of us fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 What an epic fail that was After last year's debacle no surprise we don't get hatching nor mention of tornadoes. Since it's still "missing" from the archive: WWUS40 KWNS 061514 WWP2 TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0272 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1014 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010 WT 0272 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 90% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 50% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 80% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 60% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 50% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 70 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 26045 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU2. $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Gotta say... I just pulled up the 12z GFS bufkit data for BDL and it is still very very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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