weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Looks like at least western sections might get into the RRQ of the MLJ...not sure if they are close enough to be in the RRQ of the ULJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Hopefully the GFS isn't obscenely overdone on the dew points. If we can get solid dew point pooling with a SSW wind at the surface, the threat for some really bad storms would definitely be real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Hopefully the GFS isn't obscenely overdone on the dew points. If we can get solid dew point pooling with a SSW wind at the surface, the threat for some really bad storms would definitely be real. Like I just said in the NYC thread...all we need is dews between 68-70F...that's plenty in this type of setup, especially with steep ML lapse rates...anything over this is just a major bonus. Even the NAM offers 68-70F dews but b/c of that mid level front crap it dries things out so dews fall during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 WTH is the GFS bufkit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 WTH is the GFS bufkit? In your bed under the covers getting a good nights sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 30% from about ORH westward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Kind of a boring discussion: WARM FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WITH MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS ADVECTING THROUGH WARM SECTOR BENEATH REMNANT EML. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE NERN STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS UPPER TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND SRN CANADA WITH STRONGER SHEAR OVER THE NERN STATES. STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE DAY. MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED WITH SUPERCELLS MORE LIKELY TOWARD NRN NEW ENGLAND. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON SWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MUCH WEAKER IN THIS REGION DUE TO PROXIMITY OF UPPER RIDGE...BUT DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP /7-7.5 C/KM/ MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG /2000-3000 J/KG/ MLCAPE. STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PULSE AND MULTICELL IN NATURE BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 You guys talking about watching Michigan the day before...fyi, there is a moderate risk there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 You guys talking about watching Michigan the day before...fyi, there is a moderate risk there. I was just thinking about this. This system was fairly active today with a decent amount of reports...will be interesting to see what occurs up around the MI area. It does really guarantee anything here but if they have an active day that could certainly be a good sign here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 3z SPC probs again looking very solid, supporting what the GFS is suggesting. First off, craven sig svr of 40000-50000...definitely indicating we could see a moderate risk at some point. 30% chance 700-500mb lapse rates of 7 C/KM Nearly 90% chance of 2m dewpoints greater than 70F and SBcape/MLcape/MUcape greater than 2000 J/kG with LI values around -6C. Even has a 10% chance of bulk shear greater than 30 knots with 90% chance of greater than 30 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Even has a 10% chance of bulk shear greater than 30 knots with 90% chance of greater than 30 knots. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Also 30% chance of 0-1km helicity greater than 150 m2s2 and 0-3km helicity greater than 200 m2s2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 ? 10% greater than 40 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 10% greater than 40 knots Like I said, too many 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Like I said, too many 40s What an awful night with getting freaked out over those spiders and nearly going into a panic attack. I need my sleep now though...I probably won't be able to look at any models until I get back tonight...around 7 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Doesn't look like anything special tomorrow. Just our typical SNE fropa with some isolated severe storms. People have been hot and bothered over this(mostly just Ryan and WIz) and it appears nothing more than what we usually have with a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Nice discussion out of BOX*WEDNESDAY...A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY...YET STILL UNCERTAINTIESREMAIN. 0Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLNS DIFFER CONCERNING THE TIMINGAND CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT THRU THE RGN FROMTHE MAIN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE GRT LKS RGNAND THRU THE ST LAWRENCE RVR VLY...0Z NAM IS THE WRN OUTLIER WITHTHE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLNS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING THEINSTABILITY AXIS. HITTING THE BASICS... SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OFTHE SW AND INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT.SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM CONSIDERABLY WITH SFC FLOW...ALSO DISSIPATINGANY FOG ACROSS THE SERN FCST RGN. PRESENT THINKING IS FOR LOW-MID80S THRU THE INTERIOR WITH MID-UPR 70S ACROSS THE S/E SHORELINE...COOLER MORESO OUT ALONG THE CAPE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH REGARDSTO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TRAINING ACROSS THE RGN FROM THE PREV EVENINGSCONVECTION OUT OF THE GRT LKS RGN...AND WHETHER ANY OF THISCONVECTION CAN LAST OUT OF THE W AND THRU THE RGN.CONCERNING CONVECTION...SOME THINGS WORTHY OF NOTE. UPR LVL DYNAMICSAND LIFT NOT IMPRESSIVE IN VICINITY OF THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRNTTHRU THE FCST RGN. BETTER LIFT AND UPR LVL FLOW IS MORE PREVALENTACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS DIFFLUENT FLOW IS EVIDENTACROSS MID-UPR LVLS AND SHOULD SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG ANDAHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.MDL SOLNS AVERAGE AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE WITH 0-6 KM AROUND 40 KTS TOWHICH THE WIND VECTOR HAS A MORE PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT INREFERENCE TO THE FRONT. ALTHO THE SHEAR IS QUITE NOTABLE AND SHOULDSUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WHICH MAY BECOME DISCREET IN NATUREBASED ON THE VECTOR...WHAT IS ALSO WORTHY OF NOTE IS HOW MDLSOUNDING SOLNS EXHIBIT THE CAPES TO BE TALL AND THIN. AS SUCH...FIGURING SHEAR AND CAPE WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFTS...BUT IT WILL BEINTERESTING TO SEE HOW WELL UPDRAFTS WILL SUSTAIN CONSIDERING THEPOSSIBILITY OF ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR ASSOC WITH THE DEPARTING SFCRIDGE...AND ONSHORE SFC FLOW ADVECTING A COOLER...MORE STABLE...MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE INTERIOR. IN ADDITION CONCERNING MDLSOUNDINGS...ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A LOW-MID LVL WARM AIR PERTRUSIONAROUND H85 LENDING TO LIMITING OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY...HIGH LFCS.AND THOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE H85 TO STEEPEN MID-LVL LAPSERATES...LOWERING FREEZING LVL HEIGHTS...NOT ABSOLUTELY SOLD THATDAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE THE SFC AND ERODE THECAPPING INVERSION.IN CONCLUSION...CANT STILL RULE OUT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL ANDDAMAGING WIND WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND AHEADOF THE SFC COLD FRONT. BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...WILLFOREGO SPECIFIC WORDING OF THREATS IN THE FCST. ALSO CANT RULE OUTWITH ANY STORMS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND THE POTENTIALFOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PWATS RANGE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 How does the EML look on the ECMWF? The fact that it has over 18C 850s at 00z I'm guessing is a good sign. The NAM loses the 18c contour well to the SW while the GFS shoves it off the coast by the time the cold front reaches the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Nice discussion out of BOX*WEDNESDAY...A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY...YET STILL UNCERTAINTIESREMAIN. 0Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLNS DIFFER CONCERNING THE TIMINGAND CONVECTIVE INFLUENCE OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT THRU THE RGN FROMTHE MAIN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE EJECTING NEWD OUT OF THE GRT LKS RGNAND THRU THE ST LAWRENCE RVR VLY...0Z NAM IS THE WRN OUTLIER WITHTHE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLNS FAIRLY SIMILAR IN HANDLING THEINSTABILITY AXIS. HITTING THE BASICS... SFC WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OFTHE SW AND INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT.SHOULD SEE TEMPS WARM CONSIDERABLY WITH SFC FLOW...ALSO DISSIPATINGANY FOG ACROSS THE SERN FCST RGN. PRESENT THINKING IS FOR LOW-MID80S THRU THE INTERIOR WITH MID-UPR 70S ACROSS THE S/E SHORELINE...COOLER MORESO OUT ALONG THE CAPE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH REGARDSTO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TRAINING ACROSS THE RGN FROM THE PREV EVENINGSCONVECTION OUT OF THE GRT LKS RGN...AND WHETHER ANY OF THISCONVECTION CAN LAST OUT OF THE W AND THRU THE RGN.CONCERNING CONVECTION...SOME THINGS WORTHY OF NOTE. UPR LVL DYNAMICSAND LIFT NOT IMPRESSIVE IN VICINITY OF THE ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRNTTHRU THE FCST RGN. BETTER LIFT AND UPR LVL FLOW IS MORE PREVALENTACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. NEVERTHELESS DIFFLUENT FLOW IS EVIDENTACROSS MID-UPR LVLS AND SHOULD SUPPORT A CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG ANDAHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT.MDL SOLNS AVERAGE AROUND 2000 J/KG CAPE WITH 0-6 KM AROUND 40 KTS TOWHICH THE WIND VECTOR HAS A MORE PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT INREFERENCE TO THE FRONT. ALTHO THE SHEAR IS QUITE NOTABLE AND SHOULDSUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...WHICH MAY BECOME DISCREET IN NATUREBASED ON THE VECTOR...WHAT IS ALSO WORTHY OF NOTE IS HOW MDLSOUNDING SOLNS EXHIBIT THE CAPES TO BE TALL AND THIN. AS SUCH...FIGURING SHEAR AND CAPE WILL SUPPORT UPDRAFTS...BUT IT WILL BEINTERESTING TO SEE HOW WELL UPDRAFTS WILL SUSTAIN CONSIDERING THEPOSSIBILITY OF ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR ASSOC WITH THE DEPARTING SFCRIDGE...AND ONSHORE SFC FLOW ADVECTING A COOLER...MORE STABLE...MARITIME AIRMASS INTO THE INTERIOR. IN ADDITION CONCERNING MDLSOUNDINGS...ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A LOW-MID LVL WARM AIR PERTRUSIONAROUND H85 LENDING TO LIMITING OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY...HIGH LFCS.AND THOUGH COOLING WILL OCCUR ABOVE H85 TO STEEPEN MID-LVL LAPSERATES...LOWERING FREEZING LVL HEIGHTS...NOT ABSOLUTELY SOLD THATDAYTIME HEATING WILL ACT TO DESTABILIZE THE SFC AND ERODE THECAPPING INVERSION.IN CONCLUSION...CANT STILL RULE OUT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL ANDDAMAGING WIND WITH ANY STORMS THAT MAY BECOME SEVERE ALONG AND AHEADOF THE SFC COLD FRONT. BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...WILLFOREGO SPECIFIC WORDING OF THREATS IN THE FCST. ALSO CANT RULE OUTWITH ANY STORMS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND THE POTENTIALFOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AS PWATS RANGE AROUND 1.5 INCHES. Yeah..a whole lot of meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Doesn't look like anything special tomorrow. Just our typical SNE fropa with some isolated severe storms. People have been hot and bothered over this(mostly just Ryan and WIz) and it appears nothing more than what we usually have with a cold front. It might be abnormal but just because a normal day is usually a fail. For anywhere else, this wouldn't be a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Doesn't look like anything special tomorrow. Just our typical SNE fropa with some isolated severe storms. People have been hot and bothered over this(mostly just Ryan and WIz) and it appears nothing more than what we usually have with a cold front. You'll have to hold Wiz following his thunderstorm meltdown if nothing happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Some good parameters tomorrow. MLCAPES look pretty good with 2000J possible. Lapse rates are probably the biggest wild card and any funky dry air aloft, but low level winds from 925-700 increase to over 40kts. Position of jet isn't ideal, but the flow is divergent tomorrow aftn and we try to get into an entrance region at 200mb near and after 00z. Even 7C/KM is good, but of course we lost the super 8.5C/KM rates we had a few days ago. I think it will come down to strong heating and we'll need to not have convective debris crap around. I'm not really excited for anything yet, but could be fun for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Some good parameters tomorrow. MLCAPES look pretty good with 2000J possible. Lapse rates are probably the biggest wild card and any funky dry air aloft, but low level winds from 925-700 increase to over 40kts. Position of jet isn't ideal, but the flow is divergent tomorrow aftn and we try to get into an entrance region at 200mb near and after 00z. Even 7C/KM is good, but of course we lost the super 8.5C/KM rates we had a few days ago. I think it will come down to strong heating and we'll need to not have convective debris crap around. I'm not really excited for anything yet, but could be fun for some. Good post, Scott. Pretty much agrees with what I'm thinking. Will post more after the 12z runs around 1:30 or so from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Good post, Scott. Pretty much agrees with what I'm thinking. Will post more after the 12z runs around 1:30 or so from work. I think we all know the fail possibilities, but having the chance of severe around is obviously more exciting then a dry fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 You'll have to hold Wiz following his thunderstorm meltdown if nothing happens. I'm not expecting much of anything tomorrow. There will be some storms around, but the setup doesn't look like anything more than it ever does around here with a cold front in the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 It's very reassuring to know Kevin doesn't think much of tomorrow...almost guarantees it's a big day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 9z SPC SREF looking very good...also increase isolated tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 One other issue about tomorrow, and I believe this may have been highlighted in BOX AFD is Cape profiles don't exactly look fat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 The SREFs have improved over the last 24 hours. If you look at trough position and shear, it's better than the runs showed yesterday. You can see that by clicking on the valid hr, and it gives you the last several runs so you can compare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 12z NAM looks like it improved as well!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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